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I have changed my preference a couple for the Canes options at #5 because of the quality of the options. Right now, I am at:
(Assumes McDavid and Eichel are gone obviously)
1-Noah Hanifin: I just cannot pass up the chance to add a pure skating seemingly safe bet top 4 defenseman. This type of player is the hardest to find in the NHL right now and arguably the most important.
2-Mitch Marner: I could mostly care less about his size. Picking #5 in a deep draft I want a player who has the chance to be one of the 2-3 best on my team in three years, and I think his skill is at that level.
3-Dylan Strome: Maybe I am wrong, but I put his risk just a tad higher than some people because of his time as a 2nd-liner in a kids' league playing behind McDavid and seeing more lesser matchups accordingly. I also do not see his upside as being quite as high as the other two. This said, he does project as a very solid 2nd line center and could be better than that. If he is left at #5, I would still be happy and not necessarily be scrambling to trade down in the draft.
4-Ivan Provorov: He is the wild card, and I think the only player that you could see as a surprise. He is described as a great all-around defenseman whose game is mature enough that he could be NHL-ready in 2015-16. That is a roundabout way of saying that he is maybe a better player than Hanifin right now, and there are a couple (not too many) scouts who have gone out on a limb and called him the best defenseman in the draft. I would not be shocked at all to see the Canes take him at #5.
Trade instead: I stand right where I have all along with trading the #5 pick. I will be very surprised if the Canes trade the #5 pick for any combination of roster players or bigger batch of lower prospects. When you get a chance to add a potential franchise type player, you just take it.
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So draft aside, I think this could also be a very busy weekend for Canes GM Ron Francis for building his 2015-16 roster. I also wrote about this topic in some detail earlier this week. You can find that HERE.
For this weekend, I see Francis' tasks as follows:
1) Explore options to unload a big contract (possibly as part of a trade to fill another hole) to gain financial flexibility to revamp the roster a bit without adding salary.
Unless early contract talks with Eric Staal went sour (have heard nothing on this, so there is no reason to think this is the case), I think his situation will take longer to sort out. Ward, Skinner and Semin are the other options. So I think it goes like this:
--Ward: After you get an understanding of his desire to return and desired price range (needs to be at big discount), explore whether he is marketable after an improved 2014-15 and with only one year left on his contract.
Trade possibility1 : Ward to Edmonton or one of the other teams chasing Talbot AFTER that gets resolved. Canes get 3rd round pick and eat a small portion ($1M) of Ward's salary.
--Semin: I think there will actually be a lot of interest in Semin, but I think all of it will likely be the "If you retain $3.5M of his salary..." variety. At $3.5M, I think it is better to just retain him hoping for a rebound. But IF Francis could unload him without keeping much if any salary, I think he jumps at the opportunity to unload the expensive, risky contract and gain some budget flexibility.
Trade possibility 2: Semin and one of Canes 4th-round picks to LA for Richards (for Kings to then buy out Semin instead of Richards).
--Skinner: I think he is the Cane most likely to be traded this summer, and this is obviously showing up on the rumors and hockey media left and right.
==>So I think it is possible that one of Semin, Skinner, Ward or EStaal is traded to free up some $.
2) Opportunistically shop for an inexpensive top 4 defenseman. I think the Canes could actually use two defensemen this summer, but one would need to come with unloading one of the big contracts. I think the most likely way that this plays out is that Francis swings one trade sooner rather than later to get a top 4 capable defenseman from the bargain list before free agency even starts. Then he tries to add another after July 1 when he can shop the free agent list and also go back to teams with options to add a second defenseman either as part of or after he frees up some $.
Ideally, I would want to add a right shot, offensively-capable #3/#4 type defenseman for cheap. I think this is exactly the complement the Canes need to Ron Hainsey in the second pairing to bring more offense from this set. And if Francis is unable to add anyone to play with Faulk and is forced to go a bit makeshift, then I think Hainsey slides up (Hainsey/Faulk) and the new player pairs with either Liles or another #3-#5 defenseman type add. So adding one defenseman now for fairly cheap gets Francis the minimum required and leaves flexibility from adding from there.
So from the right shot, offensively capable bargain bin:
Trade possibility 3: Riley Nash and a lower pick (4th round) or two lower picks to Anaheim for James Wisniewski.
Trade possibility 4: Modest picks or prospects to Montreal for Tom Gilbert.
Trade possibility 5: Not sure what (could it take Rask IF Canes draft Strome) to Minnesota for Jared Spurgeon. (This is the one trade of this bunch that is for a younger player who the trading team will require a fair return, so it is not clear that futures would get it done; hence, I think the other deals could be more likely.)
Trade possibility 6: Riley Nash and/or futures to Vancouver for Kevin Bieksa.
Trade possibility 7: Futures plus a roster player to Calgary for Dennis Wideman with Calgary eating a portion of his salary.
Trade possibility 8: Very little (like 5th round pick) to Tampa for Matthew Carle with Tampa picking up a big chunk of his $5.5M salary. He is a very expensive #5 defenseman for Tampa right now, and Tampa has the challenge of re-signing Stamkos and a few other rising stars in the coming years. I think Yzerman would gladly trade Carle for nothing right now if the other team would take all of his salary. I doubt he will find a taker for that. He starts to become a decent risk at less than $4M. This deal seems like it would take longer than this weekend to give Yzerman time to explore options and sort out his budget.
==>If LA has better options for Richards than my Semin proposal, then I think a trade where the Canes add a right shot second pairing defenseman for relatively cheap is the most likely to happen for the Canes this weekend.
This said, I think it is possible that we finally see a Jeff Skinner blockbuster to add a long-term defense partner for Justin Faulk.
Trade possibility 9: Jeff Skinner + ??? to Toronto for Dion Phaneuf + ???. The question on the Canes part would NOT include the #5 overall pick. I have no idea who adds what to this complicated trade and if the Canes could get Toronto to eat part of Phaneuf's salary in return for a little bit more in trade. This gives Francis a decent first pairing defenseman looking out 5 years and reduces his blue line work to building a 2-3 year bridge (Hainsey already in place) of a second pairing to get to the youth that the Canes are finally drafting and developing.
Trade possibility 10: Jeff Skinner to New Jersey for Andy Greene plus something else (Eric Gelinas? A draft pick? A prospect?). The downside on Greene is that he 32 years old playing a contract until 37. It is possible that Francis and his staff would punt on a deal like this altogether for that reason alone. But it seems reasonable to expect 3 pretty good years for Greene as a serviceable partner for Faulk, and there just are not a lot of options to add a player like this.
What say you Canes fans? Who do you want at #5? Do you think Provorov could be in the picture for the Canes? Do you agree that the most likely trade for the Canes sooner rather than later is adding a top 4 defenseman on the cheap who still leaves room to possibly add another? Could the smoke around Jeff Skinner turn into a fire this weekend?
I will put up a placeholder for the draft itself closer to tonight.
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!