Taking a look at how the Jets have struggled
As the Toronto Maple Leafs roll into town tonight for their visit at the MTS Centre much is being made about the Leafs and how they have ‘changed their ways’. Under the guidance and tutelage of Mike Babcock the Leafs are beginning to purge the problems they faced for years and are showing, that despite the lack of wins, they are playing the way successful teams should. Strong puck possession and control. As Jets GM is so often heard saying, “it’s a process….
That process is interesting as that’s the way the Jets used to play when their new head coach, Paul Maurice took control and introduced new strategies and tactics at the start of last season. Last season also saw the Jets undergo their most meaningful and significant roster changes. Leaving the team were Zach Bogosian and Evander Kane and after the season ended Michael Frolik and Jim Slater departed too. Joining the Jets were Tyler Myers, Drew Stafford, Nic Petan, Andrew Copp, Nik Ehlers and former Jet Alexander Burmistrov. Let’s consider Jiri Tlusty and Lee Stempniak akin to making change. You gave up a $2 coin/bill and got back 8 quarters.
This is not new and it’s something that has been discussed before in this space. The results from these changes have been discussed here as have the decisions to ice this current roster. However, do we really know what’s wrong?
Below is a quick table I put together after wondering what the splits were based around the Jets season prior to the trade with Buffalo and after and compared to this season. It’s a pretty interesting look at what has happened based on scoring chance and shot events at even strength.
What sits apparent is the changes from 2014-15 to 2015-16.
HSCF is High Danger Scoring Chance For. Last season the Jets had a positive 79 difference which is good. This year, 25 games into the season they are -43. The questions I ask is did this happen this season or does it date back to last season?
There’s reason to suggest that the slide began not long after the swap of 4 key players for two teams. There’s also data to suggest that may not be the case such as the reduction of the Jets HSCA/60 (high danger scoring chance against) and SCA/60 (scoring chance against) from Feb 11 2015 to conclusion.
The switch from positive differential in HSC and near even in SC is the alarming part and it somewhat quanitfies the ‘eye-test’ that the Jets defense systems are not what they used to be, at least last season. The other thing that compounds this problem is the on ice save percentage seen in the bottom section. It went from .929 at even strength from Feb 11 to April to .915 this season that’s 26 games last season vs 25 thus far this season. It works out to a .921 average over 51 games. That’s almost the same amount of games (56) as October 9th 2014 to February 11th 2015.
While it would be easy, and typical, for me to turn this into another Frolik rant the problem is probably bigger than that. It’s not just losing a player it’s what that same player is being replaced with and if you pick any of Copp, Petan or Burmistrov it just does not measure up to Frolik, Stempniak or Tlsuty.
There’s certainly more to explore with the data- all of which is graciously provided by War on Ice. What we do see is a marked shift and one could say that Myers and Stafford < Bogosian and Kane at least as they pertain to results with the Jets. The problem is likely bigger though and that’s where more time and questions are needed. What may be the case is the impact of Stempniak and Tlusty is under-appreciated or noticed or that the Jets over achieved based on goaltending performance.
At first blush there is not much difference positive or negative between Bogosian and Myers in the HSC data in the 2014/15 season while on the Jets. The same can be said for Stafford and Kane. But that’s comparing 26 games versus 35 or more thus more detail needs to be explored.
While far from conclusive it’s easy to say a change has happened with or within the Jets and perhaps no amount of tinkering with systems may help, at least in the short or medium term. What will be interesting is watching two goalies tonight who have a combined NHL experience of 2 games and one goal allowed.
Who would you bet on, Sparks or Hellebuyck?