After beating the Oilers in back-to-back games and taking the Sharks to over-time last night before losing, the Coyotes are on a three game point streak.
They have points in six of their last seven games and their record during that time is a respectable 3-1-3.
For a young team, a team that was in last place in the NHL, this probably seems like a pretty impressive run - but only if you've been paying no attention.
If you get seduced by the results, you might miss out on noticing that the process is terrible.
The Coyotes record over their last seven games is a minor miracle.
To Wit: Game / shots / shot attempts / Coyote's Corsi vs Sharks: 19-42 / 33-55 / 37.5% vs Oilers: 23-42 / 39-56 / 41.05% vs Oilers: 44-35 / 47-50 / 48.45 vs Canucks: 36-27 / 63-38 / 62.38% vs Sharks: 26-45 / 34-75 / 31.78% vs Canucks: 36-42 / 47-60 / 43.93% vs Flames: 21-24 / 26-56 / 31.37%
- The Coyotes' goalies have combined for a .938 Save% during these seven games.
- The all-time career Save % leader (non-active) is Dominick Hasek with a .922
- In order to achieve their current 3-1-3 record over these last seven games, the Coyotes essentially needed their goalies to play better than the best goalie of all-time.
- There was one game out of seven where they controlled the shot-attempts, despite getting points in six of those games.
- In the NHL, if you were to get 49% of the shot-attempts every game, you almost certainly would finish under .500
PROOF: I looked at the 2012-13 through 2015-16 seasons, which is four seasons and 294 games worth of data for each team. I just used raw (un-adjusted) Corsi and 5v5 stats.
What I found was that of the seven teams that won more than half of their games in regulation and over-time (excluding shoot-out wins) 100% of had a 50% team Corsi or better.
Of the 15 teams that won at least half (147) of their games overall during this time, 12 of 15, or 80% of them had a team-Corsi of 50% or higher.
Of the three teams who managed at least a .500 record with a Corsi under 50 (Washington, Montreal, and Minnesota) 100% were 49% or higher.
Also, the three teams that were not at at least 50% had the goalies Carey Price, Devon Dubnyk and Braydon Holtby.
While I'm an English and not a Math major, I think that demonstrates a fairly strong correlation between having at least half the shot attempts and winning games.
- Of their recent seven games, the Coyotes won the shot-attempt battle only once, despite getting an incroyable 9 of 14 points and currently being on a three-game point streak.
- In three of these games, the Coyotes had under 40% CF, which means essentially that their entire team played below an enforcer-level. (For context, Tanner Glass's career CF% is 41).
Just so we are clear, the entire point of this article is to show how results shouldn't get in the way of your evaluation of the process. The Coyotes' process is pathetic and their team is garbage. They are easily, and it's not even really close, the worst team in the NHL.
They are last in the NHL in CF% , third last in goals-for and seventh last in goals-against. Keep in mind though that their record is propped up by Mike Smith's .928 % and the fact that in the eight games he's started, he's taken the team to at least overtime in six of them. Remove the one game he got pulled and his S% is .939 and top 5 in the NHL.
Smith's record in games he doesn't leave injured is 4-1-2. Without him they are 4-9-1.
The Coyotes would be last in the NHL by almost ten points if not for Vezina quality goaltending by Smith, who is 34 and about as injury prone as it is possible to be without being named "Hanzal" or "Lupul."
Oh, and to top it off, Oliver Ekman-Larrson left last night's game with an injury and did not return.
All stats are 5v5 unless noted. Stats from Corsica.hockey and NHL.Com
By the power of Greyskull, please have a nice day.