Tracking the odds of which slot the Toronto Maple Leafs will end up with for the upcoming NHL Draft has been nearly the only reason to pay attention to the outcome of the club’s games since the trade deadline in early March and as recently as this weekend, it appeared to a be a near certainty that the Leafs would finish 27th.
After Carolina won a 3-2 shootout decision in Philadelphia on Saturday, the Hurricanes held a five point lead on Toronto with four games remaining, which meant that the Leafs had a 94% chance to finish fourth in the draft lottery. Since then Toronto earned three of a possible four points in a loss to Boston and victory over Ottawa, while the Hurricanes have lost both of their games in hand in Buffalo and Detroit.
According to Sportsclubstats, the Leafs now have a 23% chance of moving past Carolina into fifth, as both teams have two games left.
The Hurricanes play their final road game in Philadelphia on Thursday before finishing the season in Raleigh against the Red Wings on Saturday night, while the Leafs take on the red-hot Columbus Blue Jackets at Nationwide Arena on Wednesday and play the Montreal Canadiens in the season finale at Air Canada Center on Saturday.
Currently Toronto holds the tiebreakers in wins(30 to 29) and regulation/overtime wins (25 to 24) which would move them past Carolina if they ended the season tied in points.
Love @HayesTSN on the Leafs: "Stop trolling the fans... just lose tonight."
— James Mirtle (@mirtle) April 8, 2015For those who think the difference between finishing fourth or fifth is nothing consequential, they would be wrong since finishing one spot lower could have the Leafs out of position to draft an impact forward if they do not win the lottery.
If 4th – chances of selecting 1st overall : 9.5%, selecting 4th : 45%, selecting 5th : 45.5% If 5th – chances of selecting 1st overall : 8.5%, selecting 5th: 54.5%, selecting 6th : 37%
The significance of possibly slipping to 6th could have an impact on the coming rebuild, as there are some who think there is a drop off after the top five picks (Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Noah Hanifin, Dylan Strome and Mitch Marner). If Toronto loses to Columbus in regulation, the Canes would only need to earn one point to clinch fifth and make the results of Saturday’s finale against the Habs moot. Montreal leads Tampa Bay by two points for top spot in the Atlantic and if they clinch prior to Saturday could play backup Dustin Tokarski instead of Carey Price and give others some rest in advance of what the Canadiens hope will be a long playoff run.
The Blue Jackets are the hottest team in the NHL(9-0-1 record in their last 10 games) and are finally healthy after a season strewn with injuries to key contributors. Former Vezina Trophy winner Sergey Bobrovsky will make his 10th consecutive start for Columbus and James Reimer will go for Toronto.
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McEichel Race – Points(Games Played) 8. PHILADELPHIA 84(80), 7. COLUMBUS 83(79), 6. NEW JERSEY 77(80), 5. CAROLINA 69(80), 4. TORONTO 67(80), 3. EDMONTON 61(80), 2. ARIZONA 56(80), 1. BUFFALO 54(80) Current Leafs odds at winning Draft Lottery(9.5%) Same
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Marlies Notes
The Toronto Marlies moved to within two points of an AHL Western Conference playoff spot with a 7-4 victory over the Adirondack Flames at Ricoh Coliseum on Tuesday night.
Brendan Leipsic had a hat trick, Matt Frattin and TJ Brennan had four points each and William Nylander had a goal and an assist for Toronto, who have 77 points and two games in hand on eight place Milwaukee with six games to go in the season.
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Connor Brown leads the Marlies and all AHL rookies with 57 points(18 G, 39 A) in 70 games and has been named to the league’s All-Rookie Team on Wednesday. The 21-year-old Toronto native also owns a plus-20 rating and has scored six game-winning goals in his first professional season.
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2014 third rounder Rinat Valiev will join the Leafs AHL affiliate after the Kootenay Ice were eliminated from the WHL playoffs.
The 19-year-old Russian defenseman scored nine goals and 37 assists in 52 games this season and also patrolled the blueline for Team Russia in the 2015 IIHF World Junior Championship.
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