Follow @james_tanner123 Before the season began, I was rife with optimism. The Coyotes had only missed the Playoffs by three points and with Smith in goal, Tippett squeezing every ounce possible out of his roster, the continued growth of one of the NHL's best young defense cores, the addition of Gagner and the ascension of Boedker and Hanzal to star-status were going to make the Coyotes a surprise contender for the Playoffs. I all but guaranteed it and I did so with the zeal (and trustworthiness) of a used-car salesman. (But, like, a rookie one who believes what he's telling you, not a jaded scam artist).
Oh, Jimmy, you poor naive bastard.
How did this shake down?
Mike Smith? He's 7-17/.885/3.52 It's the worst season of his career and it's not even close. Sure, the defense has hung him out to dry on several occasions, and a team where Antoine Vermette and Shane Doan are your ice-time leaders among forwards is not going to be competitive in 2015, but no matter the team, those aren't the stats of a starting goalie in the NHL. What was once a strength for this team is now a pronounced weakness.
No one could have foreseen Devon Dubnyk all but taking Smith's job, and no one should because I don't care how bad your team is, you really don't want Devon Dubnyk as your starer.
Dave Tippett? This is a coach who used to be able to routinely take untalented teams and mold them into defensive powerhouses. Now, I am sure Dave Tippett is the same strategic and motivational genius he always was, but for whatever reason, the message seems to have gotten stale. This is his sixth season - with more or less the same core players - and it's understandable. The shelf-life of an NHL coach today seems to be much less.
Under Tippett, the Coyotes have performed miracles, it seems, on a yearly basis, and maybe it's not realistic to expect that all the time. The team this year- operating under a budget restriction that is far less than the salary cap - just doesn't have the forwards to compete and there is a lot of youth on the back-end.
But, even saying that, Tippett hasn't done a great job this year. I think he over-relies on his veterans to the determent of the team. Antoine Vermette is the worst forward in the NHL who leads his team in ice-tme - by a mile. Vermette is a very good player, but he's over-matched against ever other #1 centre in hockey (outside of Bozak, but when does Arizona ever play the Leafs?). His CF% is 48.2 - which might not sound that bad, but keep in mind a team ranking of 48.2 would put you 26th in NHL. He has just 14 ES points and his (team leading) 27 points are a joke for a player of his position and ice time.
Tippett has a tendency to drive me nuts by going with the same lineup and line combos now that the team is out of it that he did earlier in the season. (Yeah, I know he mixes it up a bit, but not in major ways like partnering OEl and Yandle or moving Vermette and Doan way down the lineup).
In my opinion, Hanzal should get the most ice time among Centres (or even Gagner )- but not Vermette who's value to the team would be far greater in a role more suited to his talent and natural game. However, the hallmark of this team in 2015 seems to be that of a veteran coach beholden to his veteran core. The best thing that can happen to the team is the removal of Vermette, Smith, Doan and Korpikoski and to let the young guys take over and grow into larger roles.
Beyond the lineup construction, Tippett's team has not been a typical Tippett Team in that they are 21st in the NHL in possession, 19th in shots-against, tied for 28th in goals-against, 27th in goals for and of course, 27th overall in league standings. (All stats, in this paragraph are the team at even-strength).
On the special-teams, the Coyotes are the worst team in hockey on the penalty-kill and the sixth best on the PP (which, with OEL and Yandle, no wonder - imagine if they didn't use Vermette so much on the PP). All this is at least partially on the coach, and as much as I like him, perhaps it's worth asking if his message and style has just worn out it's welcome in Arizona.
What about Gagner? I was psyched when the Coyotes got him. I predicted big things for him because he's really talented and as a 25 year old, I figured that he still had room to grow and improve. He has averaged 50 points per 82 games during his career and seemed like a sure bet to improve on that. I figured he'd get 70 - a number that has been nicely mocked, but I maintain isn't an unrealistic goal for the talented forward, especially when you view the underlying numbers.
After a slow start, he really has picked it up, scoring 17 points in his last 24 games (60 points pace). He is a little off his career average with 21 points in 40 games overall, but that doesn't really tell the whole story.
First of all, Gagner averages a full minute less on the PP than Vermette and he rarely sees the ice on the man-advantage with Yandle and OEL - this would put his points way up and there is no argument that he is a better PP player than Vermette is.
Secondly, Gagner has a CF% of 51.9% meaning that when he is on the ice, the Coyotes are approaching being a top-ten possession team. He also has a PDO of 98.0 which, when you combine that with his possession stats, suggest that he has been unlucky as far as scoring goes and should have much higher point totals. This suggests also that he has been underused by his coach.
The third point about Gagner is his line-mates - most commonly Doan, Korpikoski and Tobias Reider. Not exactly Boedker and Hanzal. The fact is, Gagner has played as well as I suggested he might and with a little luck and better linemates and ice-time could easily be approaching 70 points.
Hanzal and Boedker: Hanzal has missed ten games but does have 22 in 31 and has been effective, he just needs to stay healthy. Boedker has been hit or miss. When he's on, he's a super-star. When he's off, he makes Erat's game look exciting. The Coyotes desperately needed consistency out of these two to have any chance at the playoffs and they just haven't got it.
In fact, while he has 8 multi-point games, Boedker has gone 25 games where he hasn't registered a single point. Vermette and Doan are his most common line-mates and that is terrible for a winger of his speed and skill, but regardless, he's been too inconsistent.
OK, the length of this is getting out of control. I am going to leave off here and resume tomorrow. Know this though: The Coyotes have a record of 16-21-4 at the half-way mark and that means they are bad.
The Playoffs I predicted? A sad joke. Things just haven't gone according to plan. I think it's mostly the top line is not NHL quality, the coach has made strange utilization of his players and the goalie seems to have left his talent back in Russia. That's the main one though. The goalie. In the NHL a good goalie covers up a lot of troubles, and Smith's bad play has exposed every facet of the Coyotes that isn't up to par. His contract looks worse by the day and the worst part is that they're probably stuck with him for the duration of it.
I hope the second half is better, but at this point, what is better? Winning or losing? I can't decide.
Thanks for reading.
All stats from NHL.Com and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.Com