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"It is with marginal confidence, I predict the Blackhawks beat the Predators in 6 games in the first round of the playoffs. This series could easily go in 5 games—for either team."
So that's how I started this blog yesterday.
Then Patrick Kane had to go and spoil things by coming back really early from his broken clavicle.
Yep, in case you've been living under a rock, Kane is going to be cleared for contact today, and is likely for game 1 of the playoffs.
So let me amend that; I'm still going with the Hawks in 6. I just feel a lot more confident about it now.
In fact, assuming Kane is really 100% or close to it, the Hawks just might be the team to beat in the playoffs. And I have an entirely different blog to write this morning.
Some might say that I am dramatically overplaying how big the return of Kane is. Well, if you go back and read my blogs over the last couple of weeks, I think you will see at the very least that I've been consistent in pointing out how critical that straw is to the drink known as the 2014-15 Chicago Blackhawks.
There is, as I wrote recently, a significant domino effect when you add a great player to an already strong lineup—especially when you've been compensating in his absence. Just take a look at what Kane's return (and coincidentally Brad Richards') does to the Hawks' lines (hypothetically):
Saad Toews Hossa (arguably the best line in the league for much of the season) Versteeg Richards Kane (a potent second line for much of the season) Bickell Vermette Shaw (a third line that can check and score) Desjardins Kruger Teravainen (a hybrid line that shut down, forecheck and score—and if you need a bit more pure shutdown, swap out Teravainen for Joakim Nordstrom)
More power play options. Three top faceoff men in Toews, Vermette and Kruger, and nice ancillary options in Desjardins, Richards and Shaw.
Maybe the Hawks did, as I theorized last week, know something the rest of us didn't, as they appeared to be sort of mailing it in, resting key players, down the stretch. That Kane would be back, and we'd see the true value of the little salary cap two-step GM Stan Bowman pulled off at the trade deadline—as a result of Kane's injury.
Some might not be aware of this, but Bowman was able to fit Vermette, Desjardins and defenseman Kimmo Timonen under the cap due to Kane's injury. Vermette has not set the world on fire in Chicago, but when he is merely asked to be a third line center, play defense and win faceoffs, he is a valuable chip the Hawks could not afford previously.
So, with Kane back, and Vermette and Desjardins and Teuvo Teravainen now in the mix, this is the most potent a mix of forwards Joel Quenneville's had at his disposal since at least 2013.
And that is some amazingly good news and a huge shot in the arm for the Hawks' confidence.
But now there are actual games to play and a tough first round opponent in the Nashville Predators.
They haven't played eachother since December. Both teams have been in fairly long funks to end the regular season.
What tips this series to the Hawks for me are a couple of factors: experience (and the psychology that goes with it) and a slight advantage on special teams. And with Kane back and the ripple effect of forward line possibilities, there will be matchup problems for every team the Hawks face.
Both teams are strong from the goals out. I give a slight advantage to the Preds in net, but a slight advantage to Chicago on the blueline. But that's where predicting this series gets a little tricky: Chicago's biggest weakness is its third pair.
The Hawks have the advantage at forward.
But here's the other thing about predicting playoff series: the forwards of one team don't play the forwards of the other as a group. Lines matchup and against lines and pairings and vice versa.
Chicago's third pairing will be Kimmo Timonen and Michal Rozsival. Sure, you will see one or the other out at times with Duncan Keith or Brent Seabrook (for example) but those are the weak links. Both will play to start the series, but it will be on a short leash. And Hawk coach Joel Quenneville will not hesitate to pile minutes on his top 4.
Good for Chicago:
If Playoff Bryan Bickell makes his annual appearance, after another disappointing regular season. Bickell has been a monster the last two playoffs, making a strong case for the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2013. If even last year's Bickell shows up, Nashville has a serious problem. When fully engaged, Bickell alone can present a challenge, but his presence could also help ignite another scoring line for Chicago.
Bad for Chicago:
If David Rundblad plays at even strength. Rundblad is presently the Hawks' seventh defenseman and a serious liability in his own end. If he is forced into regular duty, it means another Hawk defenseman is hurt, and even from Timonen and Rozsival, there is a steep dropoff to Rundblad in pressure situations.
Defensive depth is a definite Achilles Heel for this Chicago club.
Good for Nashville:
If Colin Wilson steps up. Wilson is a former high draft pick with a great pedigree. He had a good regular season before tailing off down the stretch. If a player like Wilson comes up big for Nashville, it puts more pressure on Chicago's lower lines and pairings.
Bad for Nashville:
Power play goals allowed. Nashville's 25th ranked power play does not match up well against a Chicago penalty kill that was in the top 10 all season. That can be negated by stopping Chicago's power play.
MORE KEY PLAYERS
Chicago:
D, Niklas Hjalmarsson
Hjalmarsson anchors Chicago's second pair—that is often set out against opponents' top lines—a huge matchup luxury for Quenneville. He, partner Johnny Oduya, Seabrook and Keith will be counted on to carry the load in this series. Hjalmarsson also will deliver giant hits at this time of year.
W, Brandon Saad
Like Bickell, Saad is a power winger who can, on occasion take over games and even series.
C, Marcus Kruger
Kruger's "fourth" line is really used like a third/shutdown line. A strong faceoff man, Kruger will be challenged by Nashville's Paul Gaustad (among others) in the dot.
Nashville:
G, Pekka Rinne
Again assuming Kane is some approximation of Patrick Kane in this series, now the pressure is on Rinne to steal some games.
C, Mike Ribeiro.
Ribeiro must deliver for the Preds to succeed.
W, James Neal.
Neal has had big games against Chicago, including a hat trick earlier this season.
All for now,
JJ