In case you have been busy and are hoping to tune in on NHL trade deadline day tomorrow to see what moves the Canes make with their impending UFAs, you pretty much missed it. Tlusty and Sekera moved 1st followed by Gleason. Today, Jay McClement was re-signed for 2 years at $1.2M/year leaving only Patrick Dwyer and Brett Bellemore on the soon-to-be UFA list. I posted my detailed thoughts on the Sekera and Tlusty trades on a blog that day. Other trades rolling in continue to indicate that the haul (4th-rounder in 2016 and either 5th or 6th-rounder in 2015) for Tlusty was a bit light but getting basically a 1st (likely to be closer to middle of the round than later) and a 2nd of sorts (McKeown was a 2014 2nd-rounder) for Sekera.
So catching up with what has happened since...
--Tim Gleason to Washington for Jack Hillen and a 4th-rounder. Maybe it is the sentimentalist in me, but I really like the idea of getting long-time loyal Canes players traded to teams that are for sure going to the playoffs with some potential to do more versus sending them to a fringe team that be done before it all starts. It's just the right way to treat players who have given a lot to the organization. So this deal meets that requirement getting Gleason to a Caps team that I think has as good of a chance as any in a wide open Eastern Conference. And for a 3rd pairing/depth defenseman, a 4th-round pick is probably fair. The Canes also get to kick the tires for 20ish games with Jack Hillen who is an unrestricted free agent this summer. With Sekera already gone, the Canes still have enough ice time on D to still use plenty of NHL ice time down the stretch to develop young players like Ryan Murphy and see a few NHL call-ups.
--Jay McClement re-signed for 2 years at $1.2M/year. I really like this deal. Yes, Jay McClement would have been an unrestricted free agent this summer and had value as a 4th-line center and key player on a league-leading penalty kill, but in his bottom 6 role, a 3rd-round pick would have been a stretch. And if you map out the Canes for 2015-16, he fits very nicely in exactly the role that he has excelled in this season. Putting a proven, solid player in the 4C slot reduces what Francis has to sort out next year and takes away 1 question mark.
So that leaves Patrick Dwyer and Brett Bellemore.
--Patrick Dwyer. I put Dwyer in a similar category as Tim Gleason. He is a long-time Cane who has given a lot to the franchise and in the process of being a Cane has seen very little (2 games in 2009) playoffs. If he wants to leave to chase the big silver cup, I would do what I could to get him that opportunity ideally on a team with a real chance. Sure you handicap yourself a tiny bit in terms of getting value by setting limits, but realistically a 4th-line depth forward is not worth more than a 4th or 5th round pick. If it was a 5th to send him to the Anaheim or Chicago (just an example) versus a 4th to send him to Calgary, I would settle for the 5th and make sure that he and his agent both know about it. Andrej Sekera is very likely gone forever as a top 4 defenseman who will have multiple options this summer. But I think as long-time Canes in lesser demand roles that Tim Gleason and Patrick Dwyer could leave and have a very decent chance of returning on or after July 1. (Tlusty would be a middle-ground between Sekera's "very likely gone" and Gleason and Dwyer's "could very well return if they fit in the team's needs/plans".)
--Brett Bellemore. If I received a good offer for him, I would take it, but I think especially with him there is value in seeing what he does with the last 20 games this season. He has had a choppy season with some injury time off and healthy scratch time amidst the Canes D rotation, but I think he could still be a decent option as a #7 defenseman.
The bigger Canes question for me tomorrow is whether with little work on his plate in terms of normal rental deals, might that free up Ron Francis to do some of his summer's work building the 2015-16 team early.
With Sekera's departure, my math says that the Canes have 1 pure to 4 D (Faulk) and 1 top 4ish D (Hainsey). That is obviously 2 short. Liles has been serviceable in a top 4 role this season (mostly with Gleason who also stepped up), but when you put the Canes top 4 next to that of top-tier teams, I think they are 2 short. Realistically, I do not think Francis can (budget and just availability are both limitations) just go add 2 more top 4 defensemen by the start of next season, but I think he has to go get 1.
So could he surprise with a non-rental deal tomorrow that takes a step toward building the 2015-16 season? There might be a couple options to do this:
--James Wisniewski. The asking price is probably high for him, but if Columbus is really trying to unload him, the bidders right now would be very limited because of his $5.5M cap hit that extends 2 more years. The deal is actually quite Canes-friendly because the out of pocket cost is only $4M/year ($5M in 2015-16 then $3M in 2016-17). This deal would be complicated. Wisniewski has a partial NTC, so it's not clear that the Canes are even a possibility. And as a rare commodity right shot top 4 D, he is not coming cheap for some random collection of futures. There would need to be player(s) going the other way.
--Braydon Coburn. He is signed for 1 more year past this 1. His cap hit is $4.5M, but his actual salary is only $4M. $4M is the low end of the range these days for any kind of top 4 defenseman. I guess that raises the big question which is whether Coburn is still truly a top 4 defenseman. If that question passes muster with Ron Francis and the Canes scouting staff, then the next question is what the Flyers want in return. If they are just looking to dump salary and are willing the take futures, the Canes just collected some extras in their other deals. If instead, the Flyers are looking for a roster player or more in return, the deal becomes more complicated but still possible IF Francis rates Coburn out as good enough to help the Canes as a top 4 next season.
--The Jeff Skinner thing. Jeff Skinner has found a goal-scoring burst that has him looking closer to the 30-goal version of himself while he now tracks toward at least pushing over 20. Per my previous blogs, I still think the best path toward filling out the D (not just for next year but for longer-term) could be finding a deal that gives up Jeff Skinner and his $6M salary for a similar age top 4-capable defensemen with more like a $2.5-3.5M salary. (Gudbranson in Florida was the specific possibility that I named.) With a deal like this the Canes get a top half of the roster player of the scarcest kind (D) and a decent chunk of salary savings that could be used to backfill with another decent forward. Deals like this are complicated and much more likely to happen during the summer, but who knows.
What say you Canes fans? Are you also happy with the McClement signing despite forgoing the collection of more futures? Will Dwyer be moved Monday, or will Ron Francis move to lock up the last piece of a 4th line that has been incredibly good since the start of 2015? What are the chances that Francis starts his summer work early and does a non-rental hockey deal to fill Sekera's slot?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!