In the NHL playoffs, there’s a pretty wide gulf between “can… and “will.…
So, yes, the Chicago Blackhawks can repeat as Stanley Cup Champions. Will they? I’m going to lay out 5 critical factors.
The hard truth is, this team is not as good as it was a year ago, when a superhuman effort on the part of its Top 4 defense carried the team to their third Cup in 6 years.
Because minus Johnny Oduya, that Top 4 is really now a Top 3, with a bunch of questionmarks at 4-7.
For the first 39 minutes or so of Sunday’s matinee versus an ostensibly desperate Bruins club fighting for a playoff berth, the Blackhawks looked very much like the team to beat in the playoffs—racing out to a 6-0 lead—and dominating up and down the ice. Then for the latter 21 minutes, like a trainwreck, giving up 4 unanswered goals and almost allowing an epic comeback by the B’s.
A 12-game winning streak earlier in the season—and 14-13-3 since.
Arguably the league’s best 5-on-4, 4-on-4 and 3-on-3 team—that’s also underwater in GF/GA at 5-on-5.
A couple of things happened at the trade deadline and since that give reason for hope—the acquisitons of Andrew Ladd, Tomas Fleischmann and Dale Weise—all of whom are to varying degrees useful, veteran players—and the return of a healthy, rested Marcus Kruger (who looks really sharp). All of these acquisitions should make the Hawks a tougher team to play against—and in theory, better 5-on-5 and short-handed.
But there have also been nagging injuries (Marian Hossa, Corey Crawford, Andrew Shaw), a suspension (Duncan Keith) and more up and down play.
And lingering questions on the blueline.
So here are my five keys—at least to the first round—not withstanding any further injuries or adverse developments.
1) Health
Specifically the health of Hossa, Shaw, and Crawford.
All three are expected to return to the game action this week, most likely in Columbus on Saturday. The precise conditions of each are unknown—beyond reasonable certainty that Crawford has been battling concussion symptoms and Hossa has a bad knee.
Do they get all three back—and how close to 100%? Each is important for different reasons. And it’s hard to imagine Chicago winning the Cup without at least Crawford and one of the other two.
2) The blueline
Something between luck and a Herculean effort by last year’s top 4 is what allowed the Hawks to get away with relying on the likes of David Rundblad, Kyle Cumiskey, an injured Trevor van Riemsdyk and a completely washed up Kimmo Timonen albeit in minimal minutes.
This year, the absence of Oduya is glaring. There really is no #4 defenseman on this roster.
Van Riemsdyk is healthy, and actually not a bad defenseman when not expected to fulfill too many roles and play too many minutes. And Michal Rozsival is back to what he was—best described as: he is what he is. And you can do worse—see last year’s 5-7 after Rozy went down against Minnesota.
In a perfect world, the latter two form a solid enough third pair together. But the world of the Hawk blueline is not perfect. Aside from Keith missing the first game of the playoffs, serving the last game of his suspension, the pickings are slim as far as filling out the remainder of the corps.
Rookie Erik Gustafsson has some offensive skill, but struggles in his own end at times. He is boom or bust. And more bust than boom of late.
6’8… rookie Viktor Svedberg is about as raw as they come. You can definitely see the intriguing raw materials of a good NHL player someday—maybe very good because of his size and reach—but Svedberg clearly is a step (and a half) slow in his decision-making and it is frightening to think of him being out against the better forwards in the league.
There are times when deadline acquisition Christian Ehrhoff looks really good, and others where you can understand how the Kings would have dealt him for Rob Scuderi.
Still, one of those players must step up and contribute somehow—or at least not hurt you—game after game in the playoffs.
3) Goalie
As bad as the Hawks have been defensively this year—underwater not just in goals 5-on-5, but also in shots per game—unheard of for this team—they will likely need terrific goaltending. The cracks were already showing in the defense last year, when Crawford and backup Scott Darling arguably carried the team much of the playoffs. The order is probably bigger this year.
When healthy, Crawford is now proven as one of the best goalies in the league who can go out and win big playoff games. Darling has shown himself to be a solid stopgap who gets better the more he plays. The question is, can Darling carry this team all the way through the playoffs if Crawford is not healthy or 100%—when he will probably need to be 110%?
4) The bottom two lines
Kruger looks great, and there have been flashes since his return of the forechecking/offensive zone possession juggernaut that his line was last year. Again, this is where Shaw’s health is very important. If Shaw is back and ready—look out—the Hawks have replicated a very important piece of last year’s puzzle.
The remaining question would be the third line of Teuvo Teravainen, Fleischmann and Weise. Teravainen looks to be growing quickly into the role of #3 or 2B center. But overall, this line has not really gelled or developed an identity yet. Were this line to coalesce into a two-way force, it would be huge for the Hawks’ hopes.
5) Special teams
Quite simply, the Hawks have to be at least nearly as good on the power play as they were in the regular season, and much better killing penaties than they were after Kruger went down for several months.
The Hawks can’t follow their 2015-16 regular season formula in the playoffs—a late goal in regulation and then win it in 3-on-3 showtime as they have so many times this season. If they get to par or slightly better at 5-on-5, then a productive power play could be the difference.
Early signs are, the PK has improved. But losing Hossa would hurt big time, as he and Kruger are the team’s two best—and most relied on—PK forwards.
Those are your X Factors. I'll have an Arizona preview tomorrow.
JJ
FOB (good peeps, good reads)
Chris Block Al Cimaglia http://www.thethirdmanin.com
Frank Nova http://www.hockeenight.com
Greg Boysen http://www.letsgohawks.net
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