Ottawa Senators assistant coach Mark Reeds has passed away after a battle with cancer at the age of 55. This is a sad, sad day for the Senators organization.
RIP Mark.
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Ok, so I stirred up a bit of a hornet's nest yesterday, blasphemously declaring that the goaltending matchup between the Senators and Canadiens was pretty even. It was probably the most commented on post I have done since I took over for Travis Yost in September. I anticipated the reaction, although not quite the quantity or vitriol with which it came, and it set off some good discussion and debate. I didn't respond in the comments forum, because this would have taken too much space. I saved my response for today.
Take a look at the statistics of two goaltenders in the time period from Feb 18th to the end of the season, with no name attached. (all stats from www.war-on-ice.com)
They are pretty even if you ask me, with the first goalie having a slight edge, especially when it comes to stopping high% scoring chances. Based on those numbers alone, which netminder would you rather have in your net tomorrow? It is pretty much a toss up, and if you don't think so then you are crazy and ignoring the question.
Now, add the names to the statlines.
So in the last essentially 2 months, since Andrew Hammond took over in the Ottawa net Hammond has been the better goalie in terms of raw statistics. And admittedly part of that is because he had to. But you can't dismiss the numbers.
Price's record in his 21 games was 12-5-4 with 4 shutouts. Pretty darn good. But, he allowed 3 or more goals 8 times, and in 7 of the last 12 games. Hammond is 20-1-2 with 3 shutouts and allowed 3 or more goals just 5 times, all coming in his last 11 starts.
I said from the start of my breakdown that Carey Price would be my MVP and Vezina winer, and I will add to that, if I were starting a franchise in October and had my pick of goalie to start the team with, it would be Carey Price. Heck, I don't even know if Andrew Hammond will be in the NHL come next October.
Price has the pedigree, the trophies and the Gold Medals. Hammond has none of that, but right now he is riding a ridiculous wave of success that is previously unheard of. Most people, and I include myself on that list, expected the wheels to fall off during his run, but it never happened. Could it happen in this series? Of course it could. It could run off the rails for Price as well. Is it more likely to happen to Hammond? Perhaps, but there is absolutely no evidence to point in that direction.
Hammond's lack of experience? Well apparently those predicting Hammond and the Senators to suddenly "hit the wall" say they have been playing playoff hockey for 2 months now just to get into the playoffs, so Hammond apparently has 23 "playoff type" games under his belt, pressure during which he has excelled.
Hammond hasn't felt the pressure? Well last time I checked the Senators pretty much played 17 "must-win" games following their loss to Boston March 10th (a game that Hammond didn't play in by the way) that put them 5 points behind the Bruins. Maybe not quite playoff pressure, but pressure nonetheless. Hammond played 15 of those 17 games, with a record of 13-1-1.
Hammond has given no reason to suggest he is going to be wilting in the spotlight, in fact he has excelled in it. Nobody has been talked about more in the last two months or had as much attention as Hammond has, and he has handled it perfectly. In fact, Hammond has never cracked under in the NHL, despite the fact that everyone, including GM Bryan Murray early on, expected him to. So to expect that he will suddenly fall apart against the Habs is asinine. It might happen, but there is absolutely no reason or evidence to assume it will. No more than you can assume Price, who you could argue has bent in this same situation before, will.
Price's body of work and pedigree is much bigger, and he will go on to a Hall of Fame career, while Hammond could very well be bagging groceries in two years. But my ranking yesterday doesn't factor in anything beyond what the next two weeks will bring, and at this very moment in time they are pretty even. You can't point to Price's track record in one breath and then in the next completely dismiss what Hammond has accomplished in the last 2 months. You just can't, it would be hypocritical.
Hammond has done way more than expected, and even if he has been playing over his ability, there is no reason to suggest that it is all suddenly going to come to a crashing halt right now. The only regulation loss of his (short) NHL career came in a game where he was injured heading in and still took to the net because he was the team's best chance to win, caring more for the team than the personal record he was on the verge of setting.
And even putting all of that that aside, my breakdown was for the "goaltending matchup" between two teams, not specifically the Price vs Hammond matchup. Even if you gave the edge to Price in the starting role, ignoring the facts above, what if either team had to go to their backup either through injury or ineffective play from either starter? Which team would be more comfortable and more confident?
So, if you didn't look at the names and just looked at the statistics, I would argue that Ottawa as a tandem has the advantage, but because Carey Price is Carey Price and that fact can't be ignored, I called it even. And stand by it.
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EXPERIENCE?
A lot of people, most of whom are Montreal fans (but not all) commented on yesterday's post that the Senators have been playing playoff hockey for 2 months and just making the playoffs was their victory. I don't buy it, and as of now they haven't "hit the wall" and they have given no indication that that is coming.
Then people (and some of them are even the same people as above) point to the huge edge in playoff experience the Habs have over the Sens. I quickly tallied it up, and sure, the Habs forwards who are likely to play have an edge over the Sens by a total of 316 to 206 games. The Habs expected starting 6 defense has a 136-42 advantage, and they have an edge in net of 47-23 in goaltending tandems. Total it up and the Habs have an advantage of 399-271 post-season games played.
But wait, remember all of those "playoff games" the Senators have been playing for the last two months? If that is a factor one way, doesn't it have to be a factor the other? Let's split the difference and say the Senators first 10 games in the Hammond era weren't really playoff games because they weren't even in the race at that time, but call the last 15 games "playoff games". Well that 15 games X 20 players per game gives the Senators' kids 300 more accumulated games of playoff type experience, games where they knew if they lost their chances of being eliminated increased exponentially. I am not saying they count as playoff games, but they have to be factored into the equation as well.
NO RESPECT?
Eklund (my boss by the way), in his Headlining post yesterday stated that was baffled by the lack of respect the Habs are getting from the media in this playoff series. But one line in his article stood out to me.
The Habs play relentless hockey and they are driven by well oiled system of players who have been under pressure before. The Habs team that went to the Conference Finals last year were only stopped because they lost Price.
And that is what stands out to me. Habs defenders point out the fact that the Habs are more than just Carey Price. Yet, point to his absence as the reason for their eventual downfall. You can't have it both ways. Every team needs a goalie to be successful, but the Habs lean on Price more than any other team in the league.
The Habs played 17 playoff games last year, gaining valuable experience. They defeated a team who was without it's Vezina Trophy nominated goalie for the entire series (the Lightning), and then beat a pretty playoff-experienced team in the Bruins. Most of the Habs had little playoff experience heading into that playoff season, with many having just the loss to the Senators the previous year to draw from.
Pretty much the same situation the Senators are in right now, so why would it not be possible, especially with the way they match up against the Habs and the way the momentum is going, for the Senators to go on a similar run this year?
WALL? WHAT WALL?
Again, people point to "Hitting the Wall" because they had to go on such a run to get in. Yet the Jets had the same struggle to get in, and some people are calling them a darkhorse to not only beat the Ducks in the first round, but to win the Cup. The Kings did it 4 years ago, getting in late and winning the Cup from the 8th seed. So why are the Senators the team that is going to suddenly run up against this invisible structure that will alter the way they have been playing or suddenly empty the tank? This is a young team that has young legs and plenty of juice left.
The Senators team that take to the ice on Wednesday night is nothing like the Senators that played the first half. They have a new coach, new system and a healthy Marc Methot. Players who struggled to keep up early on like Chris Phillips and Chris Neil are nowhere to be seen and that has affected the team's play on the ice in a positive way.
The team that will take the ice on Wednesday is the lineup that has done so well, when it was finally assembled the way Dave Cameron deemed was the most effective, and that has worked out pretty well, Hammond or no Hammond. They are a relentless, 4 line team that comes at you in waves and puts the opposing defense on the defensive and are great at creating turnovers in the offensive zone, led by Mark Stone.
AND FINALLY
The way the comments flowed yesterday it was like Montreal fans thought I predicted a Senators sweep and Hammond wasn't going to allow a goal the whole series. That is certainly not what I said. It will be a long series, and if the Senators can steal one of the first two games in Montreal they will have the edge. If they can't then the Habs will likely be able to come away with a series win. It will be a long, and exciting one, whatever happens.
If the Habs (and some of their fans) want to pull the "respect" card again, let them. It worked so well for them last time around.