Abandoning Model has Jets Facing Big Problems

Abandoning Model has Jets Facing Big Problems

When the Jets first relocated to Winnipeg the talk became of a 5-year plan and how the team would be in five years, or what the team would be. It’s five years later and this is what fans and ownership see after 23 games. In 2011-12 the Jets on November 26th had 22 points in 22 games and right now they sit with 22 points in 23 games. That’s progress right?

Yet after last night’s loss the cries for Connor Hellebuyck are coming from all parts. Hellebuyck is being deemed the saviour, the lone option GM Kevin Cheveldayoff and head coach Paul Maurice have to give this group the proverbial ‘shot in the arm’. Have you seen his record in the AHL thus far? Aside from that narrow view ask this as I did on Twitter this morning: if Hellebuyck is the only answer to your problems, you have more problems than you thought.

What’s changed this season is the abandonment of the process and mantra that the Jets said they were going to use as a team, the ‘draft and develop model’. Three rookies are in the line up, none of which played a professional hockey game aside from Andrew Copp late last season. That’s great drafting but what about the development part? That’s the key part that the former regime in Atlanta failed to do. They injected their draft picks into a weak and thin roster as the only means of help, perhaps for results and/or perhaps for marketing.

Winnipeg doesn’t need any marketing but 5 years in it’s amazing how easy it is to get tickets to games and the Jets are now offering ‘discounts’, gasp, on single tickets.

What happened to waiver-wire Chevy? Remember him, the GM who had no assets and could only supplement his roster through taking the unwanted leftovers of other teams? James Wright, Antti Miettinen, Grant Clitsome and Mike Santorelli where the depth examples that Chevy had to rely on. It’s been 5 years and the best call-up from the Moose is Joel Armia, a player he got as spare parts in his first significant player for player trade that happened in his 4th season as GM.

But don’t just look at the the depth look at the roster too and think of Hellebuyck the saviour. What if he isn’t and then ask why now? What is worth saving right now for this team and why wasn’t it worth saving in the first, second or third season? Those same years that neither Pavelec, Montoya or Mason could take control of the number one spot and put up even a league average save percentage. Yet we hear on radio, the official team broadcaster, that Hellebyuck is the only thing that can be done to help this team. Where were those cries about changing goalies back then when the results were the same as they are now?

Oh the narrow vision and the selective memory when it comes to hockey here in Winnipeg. I’ve been in the press box and never saw the free and mandatory rose-coloured glasses some media where.

This team is in a pickle because it’s GM and ownership, do not let Saint Mark off the hook, decided they knew more about drafting and developing and roster creation after 5 years than they really did. Apparently they learned nothing from the mistakes their predeceasing management and ownership made when running a franchise into ‘highest bidder with a rink gets it’ state of affairs.

When the apathy of play that is creeping back into the Jets game night after night became too toxic to fix the only option was to fire former coach Claude Noel. The move was heralded, and for good reason, as Noel was not ready for the prime time lights and commitment the NHL requires. The change gave the team a bounce but did not change it’s fate that season but yet the roster remained unchanged.

Even in the summer of 2013, the year of RFAs, nothing changed with the core when that was the opportunity to make meaningful changes to bolster a draft and develop model. However, look before then, a team that had a 30 goal scorer in Evander Kane, one of only 30 to do so and the youngest. That is the type of piece you build around and support yet the Jets by many estimations did not understand how Kane played and scored, eventually sacrificing the two players that were the bread to Kane’s butter.

The divisions in the locker room came, lines were drawn and eventually trades were made. Kane is not exonerated in his behaviour but does anyone really believe that a wet tracksuit was the TSN turning point, well other than TSN? The deal hinged on prospects and a draft pick and a UFA. That’s two free plays, a lottery ticket and a $10 winner if you want to look at the likelihood of what the return could turn into if you compare it to the concept of ‘chance’. There needed to be a move made, this is certain, but was the only possible move to Buffalo?

What about the attraction and signing of players? Cheveldayoff gets an A+ for Perreault but after the breakdown with Frolik should fans be concerned about the next deal with Winnipeg for the talented French forward? That positive does not mean Jokinen should be overlooked. His first stint of his two year deal, one identical to Drew Stafford’s, was a disaster but he did not have the luxury of joining the team with 20 games left to play and subsequently shooting 22%. That’s one basic fact the Jets needed to understand about Stafford and clearly they failed. Stafford is currently on pace for .478pts/game while Jokinen by his second season was at .524 pts/gm.

Now let’s revisit the always contentious Frolik situation. The Jets could have kept him for 4 years for 4 million dollars per year in his RFA season. They opted to play tough and the question that has yet to be answered, mainly because no one has thought to ask it, was how did the Cheveldayoff arrive at their valuation of Frolik? Seems important when they gambled and allowed him to leave for absolutely nothing in return. Yet, 17 million combined on Stafford and Jokinen was a safe gamble in their eyes.

Can you see the problem? They had evidence on Stafford and ignored it after making the same gamble on Jokinen and not having learned anything.

This is the level of denial that the franchise leadership lives in. Maybe they see the bellowing of ‘true north’ at every anthem, home and away, as some measurement of support for what they do. Maybe it’s a misinterpreted vote of confidence that has allowed the brain trust of the Jets of the Jets to grow arrogant.

The Jets have an analytics department but it’s headed up by someone with no background in analytics. That’s not to say the work is void of value but is it the right work being done, especially when there is so much available for free. Consider Frolik, all of that freeling available evidence pointed to keeping Frolik and one of or both Tlsuty and Stempniak versus re-signing Stafford.

Now we come full circle to a team determined to live by draft and develop who is skipping the most important part, develop. Before, place holders were fine as picking up Miettinen for two years was not a risk but signing Stempniak, who liked Winnipeg as much as Stafford, was? Remember the Jets had tried the previous off season to sign him before he found a home with the Rangers. Knowing they were going with a youth movement the Jets did nothing to appropriately address the possibility it might not work out. The only support was a 29 year-old rookie who had never played in the NHL before who is now on the farm team coming back from injury.

So yes, the Jets need change, they need more because to anyone’s eye there’s a problem and it’s the same one that has dogged this team for 4 years, apathy. The coach changed, new players signed, effective ones brought in and good ones let go, yet this team is no better or no different than 4 seasons ago at this time.

That’s on the management and ownership.

So yes try Hellebuyck what’s left to lose, other than his confidence and more games. Maybe this is a tailspin, maybe it’s not the team fans will see in a month but it sure looks like a long slow decent. Consider these very accurate tweets from Robert Cleave.

Just as a reminder, the Jets went through a 20 game stretch last year from right after the All-Star game to mid March with a team .877 SV%

— Robert Cleave (@rmcleave) November 26, 2015

The difference is that last year's team in that stretch was still a very strong outshooting/outchancing team 5v5. This one isn't.

— Robert Cleave (@rmcleave) November 26, 2015

Maybe that’s on Maurice, maybe not but that’s your difference this year and it’s now on rookie goaltender Connor Hellebuycuk to change the direction the Jets are going. Good luck Connor because right now it appears management can’t even remember the map let alone the destination it started going to 4 years ago.