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Here's what I think the Hawks will try/need to do tonight to take the Stanley Cup.
1) Hoss on Hedman. And other matchups from there.
I believe Joel Quenneville will use his last change to get either Jonathan Toews or Marcus Kruger's lines out against Viktor Hedman—and keep Patrick Kane and Teuvo Teravainen away from Tampa Bay's top pairing.
It's not that Toews' line, much less Kruger's, have some stylistic advantage over Hedman, it's that they feature rugged wingers who can make it harder for Hedman to win pucks and initiate breakouts cleanly. Key to that strategy will be Marian Hossa, who has given Hedman at least some problems down low, and Andrew Shaw.
If you can bottle up Hedman and Stralman, or at least slow them down coming up ice, you have a big leg up on stopping Tampa altogether.
Conversely, Quenneville cobbled together the Saad-Richards-Kane line in the middle of game 4, and toward the end of that game, that line was generating a lot of chances, largely playing against Braydon Coburn and Jason Garrison. This is a matchup Quenneville will want to exploit again. An untracked Kane could pretty much guarantee the Cup gets presented tonight. Coburn also has been on the edge of meltdown a couple of times in this series. There may be a penalty or two to draw there.
2) Repeat the game 5 neutral zone strategy. For the first time in the series, in Game 5, Tampa defensemen seemed a bit befuddled as to how to come through center ice, where the Hawks seemed to be taking a page from Tampa's book and jamming things up a bit. Where the Hawks need to be ever careful is changing on the fly; Tampa always looks for the long pass to a winger at the Hawks' blueline. The Hawks handled it reasonably well in game 5, but Tampa will keep going to that play every chance they get.
3) Keep looking for those odd man rush opportunities when Tampa pinches; they were there in game 5 and if the Hawks get a lead tonight, they will be there again. Quenneville has to keep rolling those lines, work the matchups, get Tampa thinking and reacting instead of pushing/defining the pace themselves.
4) Protect the house. Block shots, force Tampa and especially Steve Stamkos outside. Make Corey Crawford's job easier. Niklas Hjalmarsson's 7 blocked shots in Game 5 were huge. Conversely, get and keep bodies in front of Ben Bishop.
5) Convert at least one PP. Tampa will take some PIM tonight, make them pay.
6) Give a smart, focused effort horn to horn. Don't get too up or too down. Take care of business one shift at a time.
All for now, recap tomorrow.
JJ