The Winnipeg Jets have had quite the struggle leading up to the NHL's All-Star Break, how can they fix it? Is this season already a write-off?
Headed into the seasons break, for the All-Star Weekend, which saw Kyle Connor participate for the Central Division and Fastest Skater event, the Winnipeg Jets have posted a 1-5-2 record across their previous 8 games. Allowing 4 or more goals in 4 of 8 games is one of the more glaring negatives about this stint. Is it worth selling all the assets for a rebuild? Or do they just go with a re-tool? Or does management believe they have the pieces to contend still?
Well I think the most likely option for the Jets would be a re-tool. They don't necessarily need to blow it all up and sell everything and build from the draft, but after some strong playoff performances, this season seems very out-of-touch with the teams abilities. Let's have a look at the current issues (or non-issues) with the team, starting from the top.
Kevin Cheveldayoff has been able to keep this team competitive for a little while now. Besides the Laine for Dubois trade, there hasn't been a ton of high-end guys on the move with Cheveldayoff, but some notable trades are:
To St. Louis: Erik Foley, 2018 1st Rd Pick (Rasmus Sandin), 2020 4th Rd Pick (Jack Smith) To Winnipeg: Paul Stastny ($3.5m/50% Retained)
To New York R: Brendan Lemieux, 2020 1st Rd Pick (Ville Heinola) To Winnipeg: Kevin Hayes
To New York R: Jacob Trouba To Winnipeg: Neal Pionk, 2020 WPG 1st Rd Pick (Ville Heinola)
To Ottawa: 2020 3rd Rd Pick (Leevi Merilainen) To Winnipeg: Dylan DeMelo
To Vegas: Carl Dahlstrom, 2022 4th Rd Pick To Winnipeg: Paul Stastny
To Columbus: Patrik Laine, Jack Roslovic To Winnipeg: Pierre-Luc Dubois, 2022 3rd Rd Pick
To Washington: 2022 & 2023 3rd Rd Picks To Winnipeg: Brenden Dillon
To Vancouver: 2022 3rd Rd Pick To Winnipeg: Nate Schmidt
Now, with these trades, it is clear that the Winnipeg Jets General Manager had one focus in mind throughout all of them. Improve todays team. Did all of these do just that? Not all, but many of them did work out well. I look at the DeMelo trade, where Ottawa received Leevi Merilainen, who looks like a good young goaltender, but Winnipeg acquired a versatile defensive defenseman. A good piece of their blue line today, and didn't cost them anything that will impact their next 3-5 seasons. That 1st round pick used to draft Ville Heinola as well, was tossed around a little bit, starting off as a piece to acquire Kevin Hayes but was returned in the Trouba for Pionk flip, which has turned out very well for the Jets. Most of these trades ended up on a positive side, for the team, but may still have some haunting with all of the salary brought in through these trades.
With good history with signings, I am surprised to see these players making their way to Winnipeg on such high cap hits. I look at Nate Schmidt and him almost-$6m. Schmidt is a good defenseman, but would be a lot more comfortable closer to three or four million per year. Same with Dillon, who makes over $4m.
Needless to say, Cheveldayoff has done a fine job with the Jets over the past few seasons, but again, the money may get them in trouble.
Moving on to the coaching scheme, having separated from Paul Maurice was a move we all saw coming. Was it a surprise when it happened, and more notably how it happened? Sure. But it was bound to happen before the draft. Dave Lowry came in and started to identify his lineups pretty quickly. With some change after Maurice's departure, things looked good. But it is time to start looking at where the team is going to spend their money behind the bench. Many of the coaches are still playing by Maurice's game, as they spent so long with him.
Bringing in a fresh face, such as Claude Julian, or waiting for Barry Trotz' availability status after this year may be worth taking a look at. For now, all we can say is that Dave Lowry has coached this team into taking a step backwards. Is it entirely his fault? Absolutely not. But the team needs to be taking progressive steps forward to be able to identify Lowry as the right coach for this team.
For the on-ice leadership, I think it is time for a change as well. While Wheeler has been a fan-favourite captain for a while now, he is getting older, and has a very high cap hit. If the Jets can move him, I would imagine they take any opportunity to. With 20 points in 28 games, the offense is still there. But he lags behind on backchecking, and makes some questionable decisions on the ice. In a limited role, I can see Blake Wheeler being very effective, especially with some strong two-way linemates, but justifying the cap hit on your 3rd line is tough.
Mark Scheifele, too, has looked unmotivated for most of this year. While it is tough to find that drive in such a downward season, the leadership on the team has to be able to take charge. The production has still been good, but again, I think the leadership and top-end of this team need a shakeup. If the Jets can find a suitable partner for a trade, and bring back a star-prospect center, I think they should be all over it. I don't, by any means, think Scheifele is getting worse, I just think a change up is what is needed right now.
On the back end, a combination of Pionk, Morrissey, DeMelo, plus the young guns, Heinola, Samberg and even Chisholm who has looked good, are able to provide this team with a strong back end. I could hear the arguments for a Morrissey or DeMelo trade, but I do think they are capable of being key pieces. Some other guys like Schmidt, Dillon and Stanley could all be trade chips coming up to the deadline. Schmidt has been good enough, but with the high cap hit, and guys in the minors waiting to take his spot, I imagine the Jets will try and move on from him. Brenden Dillon was a good acquisition for 2 2nd round picks, but his play hasn't been as great as many would have expected. Again, like Schmidt, he isn't the problem by any means, but a younger, cheaper option in Samberg could be looking to take on that role. Logan Stanley has been weaned into the bottom of the lineup, and while I do think he could reach his full potential with some bigger minutes, it doesn't really look like he is going to get that in Winnipeg. I really like Stanley and the way he plays, but he has been passed by many defenders, and isn't making much progress on that bottom pair.
So like I said earlier, I think the Jets should definitely go for the re-tool option, and maybe try and move some of their pieces for younger players with potential. I think selling at this deadline makes sense, and do a quick 1-2 year "rebuild" with some of their pieces. With lots of youth in the system, take the deadline and make room for them. If the Jets can find a way to still have a competitive team, but room to insert Samberg, Heinola, Perfetti, and all their other top prospects, they should. Moving on from Scheifele, Wheeler, Schmidt and Dillon will free up a ton of cap, even when they bring some back in those trades. Andrew Copp would likely also be a part of this list, due to his UFA status after this season and as much as he is blossoming into a great forward, it is time for the Winnipeg Jets to make some big changes, while keeping a solid NHL team.
Do you think Cheveldayoff is the right person to do this? Let me know your thoughts down below in the comment section, and hope you are all staying safe!
Jacob Billington