In the last blog I focused on some of the comments Jake Guentzel made about his health and coming back to the team. Today I’m going to focus on what that will actually look like. In the same article from the other day he had this to say about potentially teaming back up with Sidney Crosby and Conor Sheary
The band is getting back together... and @jakenbake20 is preparing for a triumphant return to hockey.
— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) June 10, 2020
Read more: https://t.co/RvBoRj9Pj8 pic.twitter.com/dJEvZIMbNS
Guentzel was asked about a possible reunion of the Crosby-Guentzel-Conor Sheary line that had so much success a few years ago, now that Sheary is back in the Penguins' fold. He appeared to be a fan of the concept."Obviously my first year we had a lot of fun playing together," he said. "It was kind of cool that 'Sid and the Kids' kind of got a little name going around. I've thought about it. It would be an awesome experience again. We really feed off each other, know each others' games. Hopefully we'll get some time to get that chemistry back … and in Phase 2, Phase 3 and the playoffs we can do that. Hopefully we can make another run for it."
Is this actually a good idea?
Well, it isn’t a horrible idea because it did have some success in the past. Although, you can’t live in the past and need to constantly re-evaluate lineup decisions and how you deploy your talent. This team isn’t the same one from a few years ago. Let’s take a look at the Sid and the Kids line from a few years back and then figure out what makes sense in the present. The sample is from 2016-2018 regular season (the time Guentzel and Sheary were on the Penguins).
Overall it is pretty good. They generate quite a bit in both quantity and quality. They give up less overall, but come close to splitting even in high danger chances. The good news about splitting high-danger chances is that most other lines don’t have Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel on it so the Penguins probably win out more than not if they split those chances.
To figure out what the Penguins should do now the focus isn’t really on Conor Sheary. It is on Jake Guentzel and what center he will have. Guentzel is the best winger on the team and it is a big deal where the team allocates his talent. The other biggest variable is how the team uses Kris Letang. This should guide the conversation. So let’s take a look at Guentzel with each center and also look at Guentzel with each center with and without Letang using the Natural Stat Trick line tool.
Something to keep in mind is Malkin’s samples won’t be as large because Sid usually hogs the quality of teammate. This isn’t a criticism of Crosby because he does not set the lineup, it is just pointing out the reality of the situation.
All of the following samples are at 5v5 from 2016-20.
Excellent for both scenarios. All three players are great and whether you have Crosby or Malkin at center we have pretty similar results. This isn’t all that surprising.
How do things look like when Kris Letang is removed from the equation?
The Crosby-Guentzel combo holds up well without Letang. The Malkin-Guentzel combo takes more of a hit when Letang is absent in both CF% and xGF%. This information is important and if I were the one creating the lines I would use it as a guide to help both Crosby and Malkin. Seeing as though the Guentzel-Crosby combo is still really good without Letang it lends an opportunity to give Malkin some more time with Letang. Spreading the wealth makes a lot of sense if you can do it.
If Guentzel returns to Crosby that means newly acquired winger Jason Zucker won’t stay there. I thought the early returns were decent with Crosby and Zucker, but I don’t think Zucker moving to Malkin’s wing would be problematic. The underlying numbers with Carl Hagelin and Evgeni Malkin were always good. Think of it like returning to that, but now it is somebody who is quick, but also has a functional set of hands. Upgrade!
We don’t have a sample involving Malkin and Zucker to judge from so it is just my best educated guess on how things would go. We do have a larger sample of Malkin with Bryan Rust so I want to take a look at those two and the impact of Letang there. Is there a big enough difference to justify using Letang with Malkin instead of Crosby?
I think when we look at the numbers Crosby and Guentzel have without Letang you could justify throwing Letang to the Malkin-Rust combo given the bump it gives them. Now you have two powerhouse lines and the emergence of John Marino gives the Penguins some flexibility in taking Letang away from Crosby and still maintaining production. We have over 1,200 minutes of 5v5 time with Sid/Guentzel away from Letang and still having an xGF% of ~55. They’ll be fine. This spreads the high end talent more evenly between Crosby and Malkin and allows both a chance for high success.
Mike Sullivan has plenty of options with the current forward depth available to him. A good place to start would be reuniting Jake Guentzel with Sidney Crosby, but allowing Evgeni Malkin to keep Kris Letang.
Thanks for reading!