The Edmonton Oilers aren't going to make any more big splashes in the off-season (probably). The Oilers made one add of note, replacing Kailer Yamamoto with Connor Brown. It is a good move in terms of the type of production you should receive from the player.
I saw some people in the comments talking negatively about Brown in that he has only ever been a 40 point player and the 4 million dollar price tag is too much and he is injured too often. Here's the thing; aside from the freak ACL injury which we are being told is completely repaired with no lasting effects, Brown has missed a total of 18 games in his career. Prior to his injury, Brown had 39 points in 64 games in 21/22 and 35 in 56 in 20/21 - that is a 50 point pace.
Secondly, the Edmonton Oilers do not need, nor can they afford another 30+ goal, 70 point player. The Oilers have Draisaitl, Kane, Hyman, RNH, and of course Connor McDavid, that is 5 players who all have scored 30+ or have put up at least a ppg pace in their careers. Most teams cannot boast that type of production.
Connor Brown is a good complimentary bet who could play anywhere in the Oilers top nine and at 775,000 this season against the cap has the potential to reach the 30 goal mark but in reality could be a solid 20-25 goal scorer if he plays the season in the top six. It's a good value deal for this season.
Next season however when the Oilers are out just over 3 million in cap is another story. We know the cap is supposed to go up next season at least 4 million but this move effectively eliminates that extra space. That could become highly problematic, especially depending on what happens with two key RFA's.
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The rest of the Oilers off-season is going to revolve around Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod, two key young players on this roster who need new contracts. Prior decisions by Ken Holland have made it impossible to lock these players up to long term deals, meaning we will see bridge deals that will ultimately result in more expensive long term contracts in the future, or quite simply pricing themselves out of the Oilers range.
Bowen Byram just signed a two year 3.85 million AAV with the Avalanche which may be the template for Bouchard. Honestly right now that is probably the best case scenario for the Oilers, a one year deal and Bouchard playing like he did in the second half and the post-season could set him up for a massive payday in a year Edmonton likely can't afford it.
For argument sake I signed Bouchard to a 2 year deal worth 3.8 million per season and McLeod to a 2 year deal at 1.6 million. To round out the roster I have Lane Pederson, recent signed player, as the 4th line centre and Lavoie on the team as the 13th forward. Add Desharnais as the 7th D man with Broberg in the top 6 and the Oilers have a 22 man roster at 112,500 left in cap space.
To me, that's the Oilers off-season. Maybe they go out and sign Jonathan Toews to a league minimum deal instead of Pederson or another of the UFA options left but that to me is the Oilers roster. Put in place, the roster I would run would be:
Kane-McDavid-Brown RNH-Draisaitl-Hyman Holloway-McLeod-Foegele Janmark-Pederson-Ryan Lavoie
Ekholm-Bouchard Nurse-Broberg Kulak-Ceci Desharnais
Skinner Campbell
Two things strike me here. The first is this is a better roster than the one the Oilers started opening night last season. Here was the lineup Edmonton rolled into Vancouver with in Game 1 last season:
Kane-McDavid-Puljujarvi Holloway-Draisaitl-Hymen RNH-McLeod-Foegele Malone-Shore-Ryan
Nurse-Ceci Kulak-Barrie Murray-Bouchard
Campbell
The second thing is that if the Oilers win the Cup this coming season, it will be because the young players on this roster successfully took the next step forward.
Edmonton needs Philip Broberg to become an everyday NHL player this season, ideally one who can play top 4 minutes. Edmonton needs Dylan Holloway to become a player capable of producing in the top 9. Not a need but if Raphael Lavoie could bring the scoring touch he found in the AHL to the NHL that would also be a huge asset.
Maybe Holland has a surprise deal in him, maybe he moves Foegele out to address the defense more or maybe he deals Campbell for Gibson (a move I don't necessarily love but that is a blog for another day).
Ultimately this roster was close last season but still faltered before the finish line. Small depth adds and maybe pushing for a better add at the deadline this season isn't an awful plan. My concern remains the longer term aspirations of this team and managing the cap moving forward.
Thanks for reading.