Now that the freeze is full frozen, I am starting to get word on some of the teams who tried to make a deal happen and some who are likely to pick up pretty quickly on boxing day ahead of the great thaw...
Today I will start with one of the teams who was apparently the most agressive last week...
The Pittsburgh Penguins did make a few minor deals, but they were way more active than two minor trades...They are setting up for something much larger and teams around the NHL are aware of it. The Penguins haven't been very good at all this season and while we all believe they can likely just "throw a switch" at some point, there is real reason for concern...
The Penguins of the past few seasons have always depended heavily on two goalies during the NHL season...When Murray or Fleury would go down the other goalie would step up and lead them through a tough stretch...Murray has been injured this year, and you may think this is heading towards the Penguins troubles being in their backup...
Actually, not altogether true...
Although Niemi did have a terrible 3 games for the Penguins, Tristan Jarry in his 10 games actually has out performed Murray in both G.A.A and Sv %....
Jarry’s 2.49 GAA puts him in the top 20 among keepers. Can't ask for much more from a backup...
However, Matt Murray's 2.88 puts him at 43rd in the NHL, and what's worse is among starters (goalies with more than 20 games played to this point) Murray is 22nd in GAA and 23rd in Sv% at .907...
But is Murray really to blame? Probably...
Some have pointed to the Penguins defense or even forwards possibly being the issue...but the Penguins have actually been better than normal in terms of shots allowed this season...giving up 30.7 Shots per Game...that is 7th best in the NHL..
"Goals Against" the Penguins are 6th worse in the NHL...
What about the offense?
The Penguins are 15th in goals scored currently.....low for them, but not horrible.
But here is the craziest stat..
The Penguins have taken more shots per game than ANY other team in the NHL, averaging 34.91 shots per game.
And yet...the Penguins, with all this talent have a team wide 8.3% shooting percentage. Compare that the the Vegas Golden Knights who have a 10.3% shooting percentage, the Islanders 11.1%, New Jersey 10%, even Arizona is shooting at 11.4%
8.3 is crazy low for a two-time defending champ...
Last year the Penguins ALSO led the NHL in shots, but had a shooting percentage of 10.1%, and two years ago they ALSO led the NHL in shots, but were shooting at only 8.9%.
So what doe this tell us..besides the fact the Penguins take a ton of shots? Their shooting percentage is never all that amazing..but it is indeed on the low side this year...
So is that the difference?
Special teams?
The Penguins have the 4th best power pay in the NHL...which is actually better than their normal...
Their PK is ranked 18th...not great, but not so terrible it can be pointed to as the culprit, right? The Stars?
Kessel, Crosby and Malkin are not blowing the doors off but each are close to averaging a point per game...Kessel is actually having a VERY strong season and leading the team in points.. So yes, you could get more from 87 and 71, but that is not why they are on the playoff bubble...
In conclusion...
I do believe Matt Murray and secondary scoring is really all you can look to...that and bad luck to a degree...Bad luck because of the shooting percentages...I tend to think that shooting percentages is tied into puck luck to a degree and sometimes when you look at a team who is doing better than you'd expect you will find a surprisingly high shooting percentage...and over the course of a season that tends to even out...as teams come back to earth it is usually reflected in the team's shooting percentage coming back to earth as well.....
OR
The Penguins are no longer a regular season threat....and do believe they can turn the switch here...and maybe they can, but I dont get the sense Rutherford will wait much into January to see if that switch is thrown...I believe he will try and find a seasoned backup...I don't think Michael Leighton is that guy...I could see him moved along for another more tested option...someone like Mrazek or Neuvirth....
What do you think?
Still to come over the next few days... A Rumor Chart Update, Some more in this series of "What's wrong with _____ and what could they do about it?" and also a decision on Carey Price...
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— Michael Augello (@MikeInBuffalo) August 2, 2017