I was writing this blog regardless of what happened yesterday. Sure, a 4-1 win against a struggling Oilers team is nice, but obviously its just 1 game in a season where the Blackhawks just do not look like a playoff-caliber team.
The purpose of this piece is to predict what the Hawks will do this season as they move into the 2nd half based on what I'm hearing and the history of the moves of this organization. I will reword that; I want to look at what Stan Bowman should do for the remainder of this 2017-18 season.
Also, for a little fun, I am going to toss in what I think the Hawks should do from here on out to ensure this team is successful for years to come.
After last night's win, the Hawks still sit last in the Central, however, are just 1 point away from the last Wild Card seed in the West. That's good, right? Well, not really. There are so many teams that are going to be in the mix, it's going to take the Hawks best foot forward for the rest of the year to get into the playoffs in my opinion. And looking at the vast levels of inconsistency have followed the Hawks all year, I struggle to find optimism. BUT, there is a lot of hockey left and that's why they play the games, right?
So, before we dive in, let's review how the rest of this season could play out: 1) They get rolling, outsiders not welcomed – Jonathan Toews stood in front of his teammates before yesterday's game provided a motivating speech; he said: "let's treat every game going up to next week's bye week as a playoff game". He challenged his fellow teammates to change to this mindset in an attempt to get his team on a run.
So, let's say Toews' pre-game pump up turns out to be a turning point in this season. The Hawks could find themselves in the post-season after a few solid streaks and if they hit their stride finally, Stan Bowman may end up leaving his team as it is for a playoff run. Now that may be due to the fact that there was nothing on the trade market, the prices were too high or he truly feels the constructed team can make a run.
The Outcome: this would be a great story and if it were to happen would need increased production from all members of the core. Toews showed us a live flashback of what he used to be capable of on Sunday afternoon with a few dominating shifts, maybe he, Keith and Seabrook all hit that next level to join Kane.
The benefits of this option are that the Hawks wouldn't be trading away key prospects and picks for an attempt at a run. Also, this would mean that there might be more to this team than we thought.
My big questions from there would be, are they just good enough to squeak into playoffs at that point? Or could the current pieces to the team turn out to be Stanley Cup contenders?
The realistic part of me though says that the percentage is low on the latter happening watching this team very closely to date. I mean, unless Dylan Sikura signs, joins the team and becomes the second coming of Wayne Gretzky, I struggle to see a cup return to Chicago by doing nothing. 2) They really get rolling, prepare for a run – Ok, ok… Toews' speech is a launching pad for this team to going on some insane winning streaks (we're talking 10, 15 game stuff).
The Hawks get going so well that Stan Bowman becomes a true believer. He lines up a couple big trades and hits the PR circuit saying that this was needed for us to go after that 4th cup in 8 years.
The Outcome: Short-term, this would be exciting to add the likes of Evander Kane and another D, maybe a depth bottom-6 centre even if it means shipping out up-and-coming parts like Sikura, Fortin, Highmore, etc. + draft picks.
Stan would have to be damn sure of this team at that point because 41-games into this season, they barely look like a playoff team let alone a contender group you would want to bet the farm on. Plus, he's been down this trade deadline addition bust route in the past.
This option seems unlikely and from what I've been hearing, is not expected to be how this team is going to play out.
The obvious downfall to this would be losing future assets that the Hawks cannot really afford to part with at this time. However, no one will be complaining in June when the Stanley Cup rolls up Madison Ave.
3) They remain consistently inconsistent but continue to "like their team" – I would like to think otherwise, but I have a feeling this is the end result of this season. If this Chicago team plays like they did on Sunday, gain some momentum and of course, get a little lucky along the way, I believe they make the playoffs. However, there is a strong chance they think they are invited to the party, just to get turned away at the door.
The elephant in the executive room would be, "ok we're not good enough to make a run this year, what does this mean moving forward".
The PR spin will be that they liked their team, injuries and some inconsistent play stopped them from achieving their one goal. Fans are starting to see through this, Stan, better start prepping for a long off-season. The Outcome: There are a lot of good pieces on this team and a lot to build off of from this season regardless of the outcome.
Stan has already said he wants to add Dylan Sikura as a "trade deadline acquisition" which would make it a fairly crowded forward group. So there's another player that the Hawks are really high on that could be a building block moving forward.
The short-term benefit is that this group gets to continue to build chemistry and search for answers together.
The short-term downfall would be that this team does not appear to consistently display enough skill wise most nights, as well in the team strategy and daily effort department to make the playoffs. That experience would be extremely valuable for these young players.
The long-term gain would be holding on to your future and to continue to identify which of these prospects are legitimate assets to create the next wave of Blackhawks hockey.
4) Inconsistencies continue and Stan goes bold – So Toews' speech doesn't actually work past 1-game and Joel Quenneville has finally lost the room – what next?
If the Hawks remain in this 2 steps forward, 2 steps back type season or even worse, fall off a cliff and sink to the bottom of the West, what will Stan do? Does he have it in him to make some bold moves in-season?
Honestly, the only way I see a complete tanking happening would be injuries, injuries, and more injuries. As bad as this team seems at times and the complaints towards the likes of Keith, Seabrook, Toews, etc. this is still a competitive team in the NHL and I can't see them "giving up" now.
The Outcome: This isn't the ideal option, but could be really beneficial for the long-term success of this franchise.
Missing the playoffs wouldn't be the worst thing in the world – look at the Kings and Lightning. I think their fans are ok with how last year played out, just as long as they make a run.
Sure, Rocky can be mad at losing revenue for not hosting a playoff game, but he's also a businessman and if Stan can make the right moves at the right time to get this team back into the post-season for the next 10 years than I don't think he'll be too upset.
I heard in the summer and during the season that if this season went sideways, Stan, John McDonough and Co. would not make any bold moves involving the core until the off-season. Things could obviously change if the perfect opportunity came up ("hey, we'll take Seabrook off your hands for a prospect and a pick") but based on what I've been told that reshuffling would be a summer strategy/PR spin.
Hey, but if they really tank, Rasmus Dahlin would look amazing in a Hawks uniform.
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Now, what do I think will happen? And what would I like to happen?
Above, I have mentioned that I see Option #3 as the most likely to be the end fate of this Chicago Blackhawks 2017-18 team.
After spending over a decade in the Toronto market, the Leafs were always shooting themselves in the foot with a middle of the conference finish, either just sneaking into the playoffs of missing by a handful of points.
Then Shanahan came in and had some real talk for the fans. It wasn't something that they wanted to hear, but statements of "rebuild" and "this is going to be painful" were tossed around. Then they tanked and ended up with a franchise player.
The older Blackhawks fans know the script to this movie already. I don't think the Hawks are at a full-blown rebuild stage. I do know that Stan is evaluating everything right now – his job, future salary cap implications and what this "new NHL" looks like in a few years.
Bowman's job is safe for now, but if they were to miss the playoffs, he will be pressed/told to make a decision on Joel Quenneville. I believe Coach Q will be the fall guy.
If that's the case than that's another step closer to him being on his way out. He'll have some serious work to do and will be looking for short-term success with his new coach.
The salary cap has haunted the Hawks for years and there in better shape than they have been in years. It's still not good, but it's better. Stan has sniffed around on moving Seabrook and I believe Hossa's contract as well, although he's hesitant to move #81 just in case he can return for 1 last run.
The biggest thing I'm looking at now is the "new NHL" and if it will become an even "newer NHL" in the next few years.
Now, the league is younger than ever with players anywhere from 18-22 years of age not only contributing to a team but turning franchises around.
With all of this in mind, what would I like to happen?
Well, obviously a Stanley Cup would be nice. So that's what I want.
However, if that doesn't happen, I would like the Stan and his crew to focus on a re-tooling.
The Hawks are in a difficult position because the core has endured so many games and it appears to be wearing on them, but not enough to walk away from them.
I do believe though that Hawks have life left in the Kane, Toews, Keith, Seabrook, Crawford group to make another push if the supporting cast if elevated quick enough.
You're already starting to see some really positive signs of that happening with Schmaltz, Debrincat, Hartman, Hayden, Hinostroza, Forsling, Ruuta, Oesterle, Murphy, etc.
Is it enough? I personally don't think so, but it's close.
What I would like to see happen is Stan make a couple more "hockey trades" to continue to build up the character and skill on this team. I know he may be reluctant to do this in-season, but closer to the deadline might be the best time to strike on adding young, cost-controlled players with upside.
The way the game is played now, I would be looking for someone who is fast with a capital F, plays big (doesn't have to be "big") and players that have a ton of heart. If you're looking for an example of what that looks like, just watch any one of the Golden Knights' forwards.
I know there has been a lot of talk over the years of the Hawks drafting too many "smurfs". For those unfamiliar with the term, essentially, it's a small(ish) hockey player with no defined height/weight, just small.
Well, I will take any player on my team that plays with speed, heart and goes to the right areas in today's NHL. A skater can be small according to the back of his hockey card, but a 5'10, 165 lbs soaking wet winger can always be an Andrew Shaw on the ice. So we need to stop evaluating players on their NHL.com profile.
Vincent Hinostroza, listed at 5'9 / 172 lbs is a prime example. He's forechecking like a maniac and is strong on his skates. Today's NHL is made for a player like Vinnie, where, in the 90's he would have been put in the 4th row by now.
I think you can have multiple smaller players, as long as most of them can play bigger, not be contact averse and you have of course have some muscle to back it up.
Stan did a great job adding in Wingels, Bouma, Murphy and I hope he continues to add those tough character guys along the way.
What are your predictions? Where do you see this Hawks team finishing? And what would you like to see Stan do based on that outcome?
Like I said, I would love nothing more than a Stanley Cup, but being realistic, I just hope Stan makes the right moves to keep this franchise moving forward for years to come.
Let me know your thoughts.
JL
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