Here is part two of the mailbag as promised:
When does Grier bend? Do you think we get resolution on a Karlsson deal within the 2nd buyout window after DOC signs, or does this go all the way into September/beyond?
— Ryan Z (@LetsGoPens_67) August 1, 2023
Let’s start by saying Mike Grier does not have a ton of leverage here. If he’s going to trade him the time is now. This time last year the Sharks would have had to given assets away to get Karlsson’s contract off the books. Now they’ll get some assets, albeit not the kind you would normally get for a Norris winning player. Both Carolina and Seattle have spent some serious money since the Karlsson trade sweepstakes started. Toronto is way over the cap at the moment. This leaves the Penguins in a decent enough spot. A spot they could only dream of considering their lack of organizational depth in both prospects and futures.
I think talks will ramp up. It remains to be seen if Granlund gets bought out or not or if Dubas has some tricks up his sleeve with a third team involved via trade. Something has to give on the Petry/Granlund front to make the money work even if San Jose is willing to retain.
Given there is a hard time frame on the Granlund situation I think if the Penguins and Sharks are going to make this happen it is going to happen in the next three or four days. I really hope it does happen because the Penguins offseason and Crosby/Malkin/Letang window depends on it.
Let’s do it
Of the following current Penguins, who will be the first to not be a Penguin: Malkin, Letang, Guentzel, Rust, Pettersson, Jarry
— Chris McCauley (@CDMcCauley67) July 31, 2023
If we are not considering freak career ending injuries then I would have to say this is a contest between Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Marcus Pettersson and Tristan Jarry.
Tristan Jarry is the most volatile player and is the likeliest player fans will want to ship off if he does not find his form. However, you’re stuck with him and his contract. If he isn’t playing well the term of his deal would effectively make him untradable. So even if he is the on-ice answer I don’t think it would play out favorably for the Penguins. If the Penguins have motivation to move him that means things went south and nobody else will want him, either.
Jake Guentzel is up for a new deal. He’s at the stage of his career where it is time to be paid even though you will start to see diminishing returns due to aging curves. The free agency system sucks and you are damned if you do and damned if you don’t. I think he gets re-signed to an 8ish million per year contract. I think he stays.
Bryan Rust had an off-year last year fresh off of his long-term extension. I happen to think he will bounce back this year. He has to. I don’t consider Rust a part of the core, I think he has been among the best of the mid-tier Penguins. You should always be re-evaluating mid-tier players and their short and long term value to the team. One reason you don’t hear his name come up in any trade talks in ways to shed salary is because he has a full no movement clause in his contract for both this year and next. So unlikely to see him gone in the next two years.
That leaves Marcus Pettersson. He’s young (for the Penguins) at 27. He has two years left on his deal and has a, eight team modified NTC. His 4M cap hit is very feasible to most any team. He is a super steady player who goes about his business and is effective. A set it and forget it type of player. When people talk about reasons the Penguins miss the playoffs there are plenty of valid reasons to choose from. I think even with all the flaws the team had if Marcus Pettersson doesn’t miss weeks of action at the end of the year the Penguins would have comfortably made the postseason. Ron Hextall already tried to trade him. Kyle Dubas seems reluctant to. I am reluctant to. But given the list of players you’ve given me to choose from I think Pettersson is the likeliest to go first even if it should probably be Jarry or Rust.
How long does this core get to show Dubas they've still got it before he starts tearing it down?
— Guy Incognito (@CanesIncognito) July 31, 2023
I think the Penguins are pot committed until Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang run out of gas. I think this is something that was very much discussed when Dubas was interviewing for the job. The Penguins are very interested in bringing in Erik Karlsson. You aren’t doing that if you have your finger grazing the eject button. I think the core has a minimum of two years and a maximum (best case scenario) of four years.
If the penguins do get karlsson, and than 87/71 have one of Karlsson / Letang with them on the ice at all times - is it possible to see one more run at a scoring title from one of them?
— Jimmy Dunphy (@JimmyDunphy1) August 1, 2023
With Connor McDavid entering his 26-year-old season I don’t see it happening. There were eleven players who topped 100 points last season and Crosby, who was terrific, wasn’t one of them. I think the bar is just too high to clear. The oldest Art Ross Trophy winner ever was Martin St. Louis in the lockout shortened 2013 season. Only playing a half schedule and Sidney Crosby’s jaw getting broken opened the door for that to happen. Before that a man by the name of Bill Cook who played for the New York Rangers in 1932-33 was the previous oldest winner at age 36. I just think the younger players are too good and too skilled for another scoring title. All that said, you don’t need a scoring title to be highly entertaining and effective, which I think is very achievable with Karlsson’s addition to the team.
Besides the press box (obvious choice), what the Penguins best options for sheltering Granlund and Carter?
— Author Josh Cybulski (@AuthorJCybulski) August 1, 2023
A buyout for Granlund and an equipment allergy for Carter.
Realistically, with Carter’s skating an issue there really isn’t a great way to shelter a player like him given how fast the league has gotten. Furthermore, his hands, which were very good, have seen a downshift in ability. It’s a bad situation. The only way Carter cannot hurt the team is on LTIR or a trade.
If you want the most optimistic view on Granlund he had a 57.52 xGF% with the Penguins even though it never looked like he did anything while on the ice. You would have an easier time feeding him cushy matchups in the offensive zone against lesser competition.
If McDavid wins a cup, is it on the Oilers?
— Cassy (@nyandors) August 1, 2023
I thought last year might have been one of the very best opportunities for Connor McDavid to push the Oilers through the Western Conference. The west wasn’t the buzzsaw the east was last year and yet it was another year not making the conference finals. I’ve made no secret how disappointing it was for McDavid to be stuck in Edmonton for a myriad of reasons so I hope he wins a Cup and it is not in Edmonton.
Any forwards on the cheap that we can grab out in FA for bottom 6 offensive depth?
— Ryan ðŸ›¡ï¸ (@BryanBorowitz) August 1, 2023
The Penguins currently have 13 forwards signed and are 3.2M over the salary cap. The top six is pretty set with Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Rust, Rakell, and Smith. That leaves seven players for six spots already: Granlund, Carter, Eller, Acciari, Nieto, O’Connor, and Nylander. You’re kinda looking at your bottom six and the front office went with defensively responsible additions instead of offensive ones. I unfortunately don’t see too many offensive options who would come cheap even if the Penguins did have space. Unless the Penguins create significant space, don’t go for Karlsson, and sign someone like Tatar I’m not sure what else is out there after skimming through the free agency list. I suppose there is three-time Stanley Cup Champion Phil Kessel, but he looked pretty shot at times this past year.
Thanks for reading!