Travis Yost of TSN wrote a very interesting article today on potential first round playoff matchups.
TSN: A look at every conceivable playoff match-up and how teams fared against one another in the regular season -- https://t.co/MRI26OfLFC
— Travis Yost (@travisyost) March 28, 2017
He briefly talks about the Jackets and how their most optimal playoff opponents would be the Islanders or Lightning. That is because in their head-to-head matchups this season the Jackets have both outscored and outshot those teams. Using that same ideology the Jackets want to avoid playing Washington or Boston, two teams who have outplayed Columbus this season.
Playoffs are of course a different animal than the regular season and anything can happen. Yost found in a prior article that head to head goal differential predicted a playoff series correctly 65% of the time.
TSN: Does a team's success against an opponent in the regular season carry over to the playoffs? I argue yes:https://t.co/svnYIgjUbT
— Travis Yost (@travisyost) March 21, 2017
The only stats that were more efficient at predicting a playoff matchup was when you combined head to head goals with a superior Corsi (70.7% efficient), and superior Corsi and goal percentage (72.8%). The Jackets have done pretty well against Washington; in four games they have a 2-1-1 record. The problem though is that the Blue Jackets two wins were close wins and their losses were blowouts. The Caps beat the Jackets 5-0 in January to end the streak. They beat them again in their most recent game 2-1 in overtime, but held the Jackets to their lowest Corsi% of the season at 32.11%. Overall that gives Washington a +4 goal differential, a 54.06% Corsi and a clear advantage in a playoff series.
Here is how the Blue Jackets have fared against other possible playoff opponents. All stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
Penguins
Goal Differential: +6 Shot Differential: 0 Corsi (5 on 5): 50.34%
Bruins
Goal Differential: -5 Shot Differential: -38 Corsi (5 on 5): 45.62%
Lightning
Goal Differential: +8 Shot Differential: +20 Corsi (5 on 5): 49.29%
Islanders
Goal Differential: +10 Shot Differential: +40 Corsi (5 on 5): 53.92%
Right now the most likely scenario or the Jackets is a first round series with the Penguins.
Most likely 1st round:
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) March 27, 2017
Atl:
NYR at MTL
TOR at OTT
Met:
BOS at WSH
PIT at CBJ
Cen:
STL at CHI
NSH at MIN
Pac:
CGY at ANA
EDM at S.J
Micah’s model has the Jackets as the underdog with a 43% chance of winning. From what’s shown above that might be underrating the Jackets just a little bit. A Pittsburgh-Columbus series would be a very close one, Pittsburgh has the better team on paper and the experience, but Columbus has played them well during the season and would have home ice advantage.
There are eight games left in the season for the Jackets including ones against the Penguins and Capitals. A lot can happen in those games which can reshape the standings and the playoff match-ups. As of today, the best case scenario would have the Blue Jackets finishing first in the Metro and taking on Tampa Bay or the Islanders in round one. The worst case would be finishing first and having to play Boston, followed by finishing either second or third and having play Washington. The most probable series is against the Penguins, in what would be a toss-up.
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