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Update: The Golden Knights have claimed Malcolm Subban off of waivers.
#4 Buffalo Sabres
On the ice…
They may be the most difficult team to place for me. They will at some point explode onto the scene and be a powerhouse… That team may still be a year away, but the process could be accelerated if Jack Eichel can rebound from a year away quickly. There is a little contract hanging out there which may keep Jack inspired….not that he is the kind of player who needs such things…
There simply isn’t time to get off to a slow start anymore in this division or this league for that matter. Ryan O’Reilly has truly blossomed into a star in this league and its hard to not pull for Kyle Okposo, one of the nicest humans in the game. The Sabres are in dire need of defense and Robin Lehner will have to have a remarkable season for the Sabres to return to the post season.
Potential Surprises…. * Evander Kane and Eichel have superb chemistry and no one is talking about a Kane trade anymore. * Jason Pominville’s exciting return helps the Sabres get out of the gate quickly. * Pouliot makes them instantly harder to play against. * Matt Duchene becomes a Sabre.
In the rumor mill…
If the playoffs slip away Evander Kane will be moved this year since he is UFA this summer…The Sabres simply must get a D-man in return.
Best Case Scenario: The Sabres and Eichel are on firs and finish in 3rd and back into the playoffs..10% Worst Case: The Sabres struggle to keep the puck out of the net and fall to 6th…20% Most Likely: The Sabres are battling several teams and land somewhere 4,5,6… 70%
Crazy Prediction… Jack Eichel gets serious MVP consideration.
#3 Montreal Canadiens.
On the ice…
The Canadiens had a tough preseason and I think it has become easy to jump all over them and forget this team won the division last year despite the fact they really didn’t have a great year. Claude Julien has had this team through a training camp and that will matter more than you think. Jonathan Drouin is the first bona fide young gun they have had for quite some time and the only reason he wasn’t a center in Tampa was because they wanted to get him minutes and more were available on the wings.. Pacioretty is a star player and the ultimate Captain. He and Gallagher will be better leaders under Julien. Paul Byron is considered a “one hit wonder… by many, but he led the Habs in scoring in the preseason…not bad for a third/fourth liner.
Shea Weber has now gone through a year under the microscope and while the Canadiens shortcomings are surely on defense, they have the best top D-man you can have around. Alzner was also added...that’s a big, strong add.
And oh yeh…they have Carey Price. The best of the best.
Anyone who looks at these changes and thinks the best team in the division is falling out of the playoffs baffles me. The only reason I have them in 3rd is because I know Julien. He will work on things to get this team ready for the playoffs…The regular season is important, but Julien has ALWAYS used the regular season to get things right with his teams.
Potential Surprises…
* Victor Mete is almost 13 years younger than his D-partner Shea Weber. This is why you love Julien. He discovered this 19 year old at development camp and he has kept him around and he looks spectacular. He was a 4th round pick in 2016. He is still on the roster and he will get a shot.
In The Rumor Mill..
The Canadiens are trying VERY hard to add Matt Duchene. Galchenyuk is likely to be involved if a deal gets done and the Habs may be able to move a young D prospect now that Mete has really stepped up.
Best Case Scenario: The Canadiens win the division again and are better suited for a long playoff run/ 25% Worst Case: They lose Price to injury and fall to 4th or 5th…It would be bad to lose Price, but they are more prepared to handle it than ever before…10% Most Likely: They are in a three-way battle for the top three spots with Tampa and Toronto…all separated by a few points..65%
#2 Tampa Lightning
On the ice…
They have too much skill to be ignored and with the return of Stamkos it isn’t that shocking most pundits are putting them back at the top of the division after not even making the playoffs last season…If Steven Stamkos can get back to form look out…but I think we need to see that first. Stamkos has missed the better part of two of the last four seasons with MAJOR injuries, and in the two seasons he did play he put up 43 and 36 goals a piece, but didn’t add many assists at all with under 30 assists in each season…and before the first injury in 2013 he was usually a lot higher in the assist totals.
So Stamkos is solid, but if you took him away this should still be a playoff team. And a top team in the Atlantic. And they weren’t last year. And that is at least concerning enough for me to keep them out of the top spot and I almost had to flip a coin to put them ahead of Montreal…The Lightning need more than Stamkos and Kucherov up front. Adding Kunitz was a really good call because of his experience…
On D…Hedman and Stralman each have new D partners…The addition of Girardi and Sergachev “should… help, but the third pairing is still a bit suspect.
In Vasilevsky they have a great goalie capable of the top level…but Bishop had been traded for Budaj….I like what Peter did last year, but depending on him to ALWAYS do that if they need him….?
There is more than Stamkos missing wrong with this team…They aren’t a sure thing. But could also go as far as anyone.
Potential Surprises…. * A coaching change? I love Cooper, but there is no doubt the spotlight is on him.
In the rumor mill…
If they are out of the playoffs look for Kunitz to be moved…If they are in the playoffs look for them to try and swing a trade for third line help.
Best Case Scenario: The Bolts return to the Conference Champ form and win the division going away…30% Worst Case: Injuries or general issues keep them from rising like expected and they finish 4th or 5th…just missing out like last year. 10% Most Likely: They finish 1,2, or 3 in a tight battle…and they become a force in the playoffs…60%
Crazy Prediction… Kucherov wins the scoring title.
#1 Toronto Maple Leafs.
On the ice…
There is no doubt everything went right for the Leafs last year…or did it? I seem to remember goalie issues for the first month or so and if that doesn’t happen Toronto would have been in the playoffs easily and considering they took the President Trophy winner to 7 games who knows what may have happened.
These young guns are right up there with Pittsburgh and Edmonton in entertainment value and they are only getting better. They are the real deal. Matthews is top three with Crosby and McDavid…and no one else is at that level. Nylander needs to stay with him, because they compliment each other so well. Marner would be a top star on almost any other team. One of the best play makers in the game. Marleau’s addition is sneaky good because it makes them a legit three line threat…with a fourth line that may have a 20 goal scorer.
The defense is iffy, but has players who are very good at getting the puck up the ice quickly…They will need to perfect holding leads, and could still benefit from a shutdown guy…But they have enough depth to go and get that player at some point this year.
They have great coaching and management.
Potential Surprises…. * Toronto defies sophomore slumps and Matthews leads by example. * James van Riemsdyk gets hot early and makes all the trade talk fade fast. * Curtis McElhinney steps up and helps them more than people expect.
In the rumor mill…
Since there are more reporters specializing in rumors in the Toronto Metro area than there are Starbucks, the Leafs will ALWAYS be forefront in the rumor mill. JVR is a guy who could be the piece moved to get the D help…but some feel Connor Brown, although loved, could be the guy to move.
Best Case Scenario: The Leafs continue to progress faster than expected and find themselves atop the division and close to the top of the Conference...30% Worst Case: The Sophomore slump is very real and the Leafs struggle to make the playoffs…falling to 4th/5th.-10% Most Likely: The Leafs are right there in the three-way battle with Montreal and Tampa…for 1,2,3
Crazy Prediction… Auston Matthews wins MVP…(not really crazy at all)
Still to come...the Central and the Metro...
We will discuss this and more on the podcast at 1pm.