Last night 1-1(even) YTD 65-53-2 +9.00 Units
We got a split last night but I truly don't understand this Isles team. Now ahead to the 11 game card tonight. Always be sure to check out my game notes for each game!
Preds at the Leafs, with Toronto a heavy fav -195 due in part to winning 8 of their last 9 games. But the price isn't worth it at all as Nashville has won 8 of their last 10 and so undervalued at +162. Now 19 of 31 have gone under the total between these two teams, so lean to the under.
Florida gets the Isles rested and is 7-0 at home, but the Panthers are off a 4 game roadie in which they lost all 4 games. Lean to Florida -161, they also play 8 of their next 9 at home.
Habs are playing their 3rd in 4 nights on the road, 5th in 8 nights too! Montreal is dreadful on the road too, they have a pile of injuries plus add to that list with Jake Allen out, 2 AHL goalies spell disaster. NYR -165 is a nice price, -1.5(+150) is worth a shot here too!
The Flames are playing their 4th in 6 nights on the road. Even though Calgary holds a nice road record and hot start, they have lost 5 of 7 and find themselves a fav on the road at -123. The Flyers lost at Calgary a few weeks ago at the end of their western Canada road trip, 4-0. Over their last 8 games, Philly has rotated a W, then L. So let's stick with the streak, W for the Flyers at +102!
Buffalo has had a nice start to the season, but it's their home record that has got it done for them. They are terrible on the road. The Pens will play 9 of their next 11 games on the road, but not worth the price tonight at -235.
STL has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a hot start. At a price of -300, I will pass on the Blues, but might play them later on the PL. Yotes are playing their 3rd in 5 nights on the road and lost 7-4 in STL early in the season.
The Sharks are playing their 4th straight on the road, but they get 7 players back from covid protocol, meaning 4 of their defensemen finally return! Minny has won 5 of their last 6 and are dominant at home, but at -195, I will pass. SJ is a nice dog here at +161.
The Oilers are playing their 5th game in 8 nights on the road in which they are 2-2 so far on this trip, with a 5-2 record away from Edmonton overall. This is the front end of a home and home between these two teams, which is must-see hockey in my eyes! The Jets catch the Oilers in a great spot here, Winnipeg is 6-1-0-1 at home and are 4-2 on this current 7 game homestand. Jets then hit the road for 4 of their next 5. Lean to the Jets -105 with a huge edge in goaltending!
Dallas catches Detroit in back-to-back road games, while they sat rested last night and the Wings played in CLB. Detroit is a very young team like Buffalo, both teams do well at home but struggle on the road as they mature as a team. Dallas finally had a total effort on Saturday in dominating the Flyers, so have they turned the corner? I lean to the Stars -175 here at Detroit is on a tough 4 game roadie.
Carolina hits the road for a 6 game roadie, 7 of their next 8 on the road, and is 2-2 in their last 4 games after starting the season 9-0. But these are the type of games that gets the Canes' attention and Vegas is really banged up, even with Mark Stone back. The Knights have won 8 of their last 10 but they have beat up on the bottom feeders of the league, in Ottawa/Montreal/Seattle/Vancouver. They now get a great team coming into their barn in Carolina. Give me the Canes -125!
The Caps hit the west coast for 4 games in 6 nights in which they are 4-1-1 on the road and have won 4 in a row overall. Meanwhile, the Ducks have won 7 in a row and are 6-2-1 at home and a dog at +115, but let's look at who they beat - Canucks twice, Montreal, AZ, Seattle, NJ. Personally, their only quality win during this winning streak was over STL. But as they say, you gotta win the schedule you are dealt. So Anaheim gets a step up in competition with Washington. I think the Ducks look at this game early in the season as their Stanely Cup, lean to Anaheim.
The following numbers from last night were requested by all the Draft Kings reader's here, so I hope all of you that read the column daily can use them to your advantage - Total goals last night - 13(Home - 9/Road - 4) Total PP goals last night - 1 Total SH goals last night - 0 Favs were 2-0 last night, 19-1 the last 3 nights **Another prop to try is empty-net goals, you would be surprised how many are scored each night as coaches tend to pull the goalie earlier than if down 1 or 2 goals.
Systems so far this season, always updated daily, see below -
Home teams are now 133-98. Over/Under the total is 105-117-7 on the year. Teams in back-to-back consecutive road games are now 23-17-1 over/under the total. Teams rested the night before when their opponent plays the prior night are 28-16. Home teams in their home openers are 20-11 on the season. (NYI only team left to play their home opener) East vs West games, East 45-37 over the Western Conference. Teams playing 3 in 4 nights on the road, bet against in 3rd game - 14-5 Teams playing 4 in 6 nights on the road, bet against in 4th game - 12-3 Teams off 5 game roadie or more, bet against them. 6-3 Teams playing 5 in 8 nights on the road, bet against them in 5th game - 3-1 (Seattle/SJ/AZ)(Calgary won in this spot vs Philly) Teams playing in their 6th straight road game, bet against them. 1-1
Playing all for 1 Unit each unless specified - NYR - ML(-165) Philly - ML(+102) Dallas - ML(-175) Jets - ML(-105)(2 Units) Canes - ML(-125)(2 Units) Ducks - ML(+110)
If anyone has any questions or comments, either drop me an IM or leave a comment in the discussion section of the blog. I always get back to everyone!
Good Luck Tonight! Puckpix