Last night 0-3 -6.73 Units YTD 170-151-3 +23.90 Units
Absolute must wins for the NYR and Boston Bruins tonight playing 2 of the worst teams in the tonight. Meanwhile the Nashville Predators are in must win mode as well trying to keep pace for the final playoff spot in the Central Division.
**I have started to research teams that come off at least a 5 game road trip and how they fare in their first game back home.** Its 8-7 to date.
Scenario #1 – Teams that are rested, either sitting at home or on the road while their opponent plays the night before. 19-7 over the last month of tracking it! Hitting at 74% rate! As well, the under is a nice 15-10-1 in these spots!
Scenario #2 – Teams that are playing each other in back to back games, in which the home team loses the first game, the record of the home team in the second game is 73-47. Hitting at 54% success rate.
Scenario #3 – Teams playing back to back road games on consecutive nights tend to go under the total in the 2nd game. So far that trend is 34-24-2 when teams play on the road back to back nights.
Scenario #4 - One last angle I am tracking that is slightly profitable and similar to Scenario #1, is when any team loses the first game of a back to back against the same team, regardless if it’s on the road or at home, those teams are 95-68 in that situation.
Quick stat updates - First period totals going over were 4-3 last night and are 304-338 on the season. Road teams were 4-3 last night and are 304-330 on the season. Game totals going over the total were 3-2-3 last night and are 299-310-24 on the season.
Gamenotes for tonight –
NYR/NJ – The first game of 4 straight head to head! NJ won the first 2 back at the beginning of the season, NYR won the last 2. All 4 have gone over the total.
Sabres/Bruins – Boston won the first 2 meetings this season with both going under the total.
Flyers/Caps – Phily won the first game head to head way back in February, Caps have won the last 3 with 3 of 4 going under the total.
Flames/Leafs – Calgary has only played once in the last 8 days! Play Scenario #1. Leafs have won 6 of 8 head to head this season.
TB/Nashville – Play Scenario #2. TB has won 6 of 7 head to head this season.
Florida/Dallas – Panthers have won 4 of 6 head to head with 5 of 6 going under the total this season.
All system plays for 1 Unit each tonight –
Calgary – ML(+150) Nashville – ML(+148) Florida –ML(_119)
Non-system play – NYR – ML(-184)(1 Unit)
Good luck tonight!
Puckpix