Last night 3-1 +3.03 Units YTD 143-118-3 +34.93 Units
Finally a big card this week as we get 9 games on this Thursday night! A few games highlight the card tonight as we have some big divisional battles. You have the top 4 teams in the East Division going head to head with Washington at NYI and Pittsburgh at Boston. Then you have a big tilt in the West Division as Minnesota travels to Vegas, with the 2nd and 3rd place teams facing off.
Nashville is the hottest team in the league and are a dog at home against a Dallas team that played 17 games in 30 days during the month of March!
**I have started to research teams that come off at least a 5 game road trip and how they fare in their first game back home.** Its 7-5 to date.
Scenario #1 – Teams that are rested, either sitting at home or on the road while their opponent plays the night before. 16-5 over the last 2 plus weeks of tracking it! Hitting at 75% rate! As well, the under is a nice 12-8-1 in these spots!
Scenario #2 – Teams that are playing each other in back to back games, in which the home team loses the first game, the record of the home team in the second game is 63-37. Hitting at 63% success rate!
Scenario #3 – Teams playing back to back road games on consecutive nights tend to go under the total in the 2nd game. So far that trend is 29-21-2 when teams play on the road back to back nights.
Scenario #4 - One last angle I am tracking that is slightly profitable and similar to Scenario #1, is when any team loses the first game of a back to back against the same team, regardless if it’s on the road or at home, those teams are 88-65 in that situation.
Quick stat updates - First period totals going over were 4-1 last night and are 252-295 on the season. Road teams were 3-2 last night and are 251-289 on the season. Game totals going over the total were 2-2-2 last night and are 255-266-16 on the season.
Gamenotes for tonight –
Pens/Bruins – Pens are a different team on the road, but Boston has been struggling for awhile now. Both teams have gone under the total 8 of their last 10! Boston has won 3 of 4 head to head and all 4 have gone under the total.
NYR/Buffalo – Rangers sitting rested while the Sabres played last night, play Scenario #1. Rangers have won 3 of 4 head to head and 3 of 4 have gone under the total this season.
Jackets/TB – Tampa Bay has lost 3 in a row for the first time this season! Jackets have won 2 of 3 head to head while 2 of 3 have gone under the total.
Caps/NYI – Isles returning from a 4 game roadie. Caps have won all 3 meetings head to head this season with 2 of 3 going under the total, but all were in Washington.
Habs/Sens – Ottawa plays for the first time in a week! Sens have won 3 of 5 head to head with 4 of 5 going under the total.
Wings/Panthers – Florida has won 5 of 7 head to head this season, with 6 of 7 going under the total!
Stars/Preds – Nashville has won 8 of their last 9 and are red hot! Preds have won 3 of 5 head to head while 3 of 5 have gone under the total this season. Keep in mind, 4 of the 5 have been decided by one goal.
Canes/Hawks – Chicago has gone under the total for 6 straight games. They have split the first 4 games this season, but 3 of them by one goal and 3 of 4 have gone over the total.
Wild/Vegas – Knights don’t lose much at home, but LA defeated them for only their 3rd loss at home last night. They split the first 4 at home, with the home team always winning! 3 of 4 have gone over the total. Wild playing 3rd game in 4 nights on the road.
System plays all for 1 Unit each –
NYR – ML(-273) Canes – ML(-164) TB – ML(-279) Vegas – ML(-169)
Non-system plays for 1 Unit each –
Ottawa – ML(+165) Caps – ML(+110) Preds – ML(+108)
Feel free to ask any questions in the blog and I always get back to everyone. I will have Twitter and Instagram going shortly. Good luck tonight!
Puckpix