What’s next for LeBreton?
In what is not a surprising turn of events, the LeBreton deal looks to be dead as of now:
#LeBreton update: We’ve been advised by the mediator Mr. Warren Winkler that the parties have been unable to reach a settlement. Our Board will hold a teleconference on Feb. 28 to review this development. Another meeting will be held on March 7 to finalize a new process.
— National Capital Commission (@NCC_CCN) February 27, 2019
All of that work done for the past three years seems to be for nothing, and it appears to be because of Melnyk’s stubbornness and desire to control as much as possible. I still think the future of the franchise is at LeBreton, even if that takes 5-10 years to complete. The only thing is, there is no way that Melnyk will be the owner when that happens. I think it’s laughable that the organization would look for other areas to build on, considering LeBreton is the perfect location that is close to downtown:
Looks like the #Sens are looking at other locations at or close to the downtown now that LeBreton has fallen through. "We are here for the long-term and want a world-class venue where Ottawans will live, work, play and enjoy the best the city has to offer."
— Bruce Garrioch (@SunGarrioch) February 27, 2019
I am not able to speak with the proper amount of authority on this whole situation, but it seems pretty clear to me that Melnyk just doesn’t have the cash to get this done, because you could not have a better spot for a new arena. We have heard Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson speak out against Melnyk before, and he wasn’t afraid to do so again yesterday:
UPDATE: #Ottawa Mayor @JimWatsonOttawa says Eugene Melnyk was frustrating to deal with on LeBreton Flats: https://t.co/26WkuxsnMD #Sens #ottnews pic.twitter.com/m3lBVluR7l
— CBC Ottawa (@CBCOttawa) February 27, 2019
It’s certainly disappointing that the project for this arena keeps getting pushed back, because the city deserves better. At the same time, this might be the beginning of the end for Melnyk if he is going to lose more money in the coming years, and the league might be inclined to step in in order to save the franchise. No matter what, a new rink isn’t coming for at least another five years, but I wouldn’t necessarily view yesterday’s news as all bad, considering what it might mean for Melnyk.
The new Erik
Let the hype begin. Because he is a Swedish defenseman named Erik, newly acquired Erik Brannstrom is already being compared to Erik Karlsson. Comparisons to him are usually overblown, just because he’s the best defenseman in the world, but I think it’s fair to see a bit of Karlsson in Brannstrom’s game. Furthermore, I think he can become a top pairing defenseman, which is something to get very excited about.
He is a modern-day, offensive defenseman who isn’t afraid to hold onto the puck. Watching his highlights is a real treat:
Quick look at Erik Brannstrom (#12) from the WJC. He's so elusive and his skating is off the charts. pic.twitter.com/psSoeNwBW5
— Paul (@Sens_Army_) February 26, 2019
There was also a ton of buzz from the Belleville Senators yesterday as he joined the team at practice for the first time. Fans are excited to see him play, and I get why. He will be a huge part of the BSens playoff push, and if they fall out of it, there’s a chance he could get a few games in Ottawa this season as well. With 28 points in 41 games as a 19-year-old, I don’t see why he can’t be in the NHL next season. I don’t think he is ever going to be Erik Karlsson, nor is Thomas Chabot. But for the first time since the Zdeno Chara/Wade Redden days, Ottawa could have two top-notch defensemen.
Need another star
The Senators have a lot of good young players/prospects and a ton of picks coming up in the next three seasons. At forward, they have Brady Tkachuk, Logan Brown, Colin White, Drake Batherson, Vitaly Abramov, Josh Norris, Alex Formenton, Filip Chlapik, and Rudolfs Balcers. On defense, they have Thomas Chabot, Erik Brannstrom, Christian Wolanin, Jacob Bernard-Docker, Jonny Tychonick, Max Lajoie, and Christian Jaros. And finally, in goal, they have Marcus Hogberg, Filip Gustavsson, and Joey Daccord. That is an impressive crop of players, and I am excited for most of them. However, Ottawa will still need another star or two in that mix in order to make this next core good enough to be contenders.
And obviously part of the rebuild is bringing in new players, so nobody expects these players to be the only ones who will be a part of the next great Senators team. Still though, the forwards are definitely lacking in first line upside at centre and right wing, holes that are left by Matt Duchene and Mark Stone. Norris, Brown, and White all look like solid prospects, but I don’t know if any of them will be true number one centres. The right side is extremely thin, with Batherson being a potential first line player, but there isn’t too much behind him in terms of elite talent. I love what Tkachuk brings, but even if he is a first-line left winger, that is only one forward who fits that criteria right now.
The defense is different because Chabot is already a #1, and Brannstrom can be in that same tier as well. With what Wolanin has shown, I think he is easily a top-four defenseman, so strangely enough, Ottawa is actually in a better spot on defense in terms of filling out their roster moving forward. Their goaltenders are interesting and I wouldn’t worry about them too much, mainly because all three of Hogberg/Gustavsson/Daccord have shown promise at points. The forwards look incredibly deep with many potential second/third line players, but I don’t see a ton of elite talent besides perhaps Tkachuk, Brown, and Batherson if everything breaks right for them.
The Senators should be terrible in 2019-2020 again, so there’s a very good chance that they end up with an elite prospect like Alexis Lafreniere or Quinton Byfield, and that will certainly change things, plus their plethora of picks will make their situation appear even better. But as of now, it’s clear that they need a top talent up front to build around.
Setting records down the stretch?
This is the what the Senators roster currently looks like:
Tkachuk-White-Duclair Smith-Pageau-Ryan Balcers-Tierney-Boedker Paajarvi-Lindberg-Gibbons
Chabot-DeMelo Wolanin-Ceci Borowiecki-Jaros Harpur
Balcers didn’t even play on Tuesday, making the lineup even worse, with Harpur in as the seventh defenseman. This team is easily one of the worst in the post-lockout era, and it was already in that category before Stone, Duchene, and Dzingel left. The team’s leading scorer is Thomas Chabot, who has 47 points in 55 games, but the leading scorer for forwards is...Chris Tierney. Tierney has 40 points in 63 games, putting him on pace for 52 total. For a “leading scorer… amongst forwards, that’s quite horrendous, even though it would count as a good season for him personally.
The team’s leading goal scorer is Brady Tkachuk with 14...so he might get to 20. The 7-2 loss to the Capitals was to be expected, and I would be surprised if they won more than more than five of their last 19 games, honestly. Ottawa already has a five game losing streak going, and at this point I’m just curious to see how long it can last. Somehow the Kings (-51) and Ducks (-56) have slightly worse goal differentials than the Senators (-46), but that could and should change in a hurry. There’s no sugar-coating how bad this team is, and I wonder if they can set any records for shot metrics or lack of goal scoring.
Hoping for the best with Duclair
Anthony Duclair has already been on five teams in his short career, and he is turning 24 this year. He has always been someone with lots of potential, as he scored 50 goals in 59 games for the Quebec Remparts in his draft+1 season. He even had 44 points in Arizona as a 20-year-old, so he has the ability to be a solid 2nd/3rd line player. He only has 19 more games to impress the Senators enough so that they can re-sign him in the summer, which isn’t much time.
He has gotten off to a decent start, with one goal in two games. Because he’s not even 24 yet, he’ll still be an RFA in the summer, meaning the Senators might as well at least tender him a qualifying offer in order to retain his rights. Even if they don’t want to keep him, perhaps another team will offer a late draft pick in return. However, it would be nice to see Ottawa give him a chance next season because there will be plenty of roster spots open. Obviously Duclair has to hold up his end of the bargain as well, so there is a lot of pressure on him down the stretch.
Even if he doesn’t look amazing but he does adequately well, the Senators might as well re-sign him since he’s only making $650k this season and will not cost very much in 2019-2020.