The Calgary Flames were one of the NHL's best teams over the last couple months of the season but, make no mistake, they are the underdogs heading into their opening-round series against the powerhouse Anaheim Ducks.
That doesn't mean the Flames can't win, though, so in today's post, I'll be taking a look at a few keys that will ultimately decide whether they move on or go home early.
The Monahan line vs the Kesler line
Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau have seen a good amount of Ryan Kesler during their young careers -- they have played more 5v5 minutes against Kesler than any other player -- and, to this point, things haven't gone well.
Kesler, a complete pain in the ass to face and one of the better two-way players in the league, has been very successful in neutralizing the Flames' top two offensive players. In fact, the Ducks have been downright dominant with Kesler on the ice against them.
The Ducks have controlled 55% of the shot attempts and well over 60% of the goals with Kesler on the ice vs Monahan and Gaudreau.
The Andrew Cogliano - Kesler - Jakob Silfverberg line has played against opposing team's top offensive players all year. I fully expect that to continue in this series, especially given Randy Carlyle is a matchup coach and the Ducks have last change.
Gaudreau, Monahan and Michael Ferland have to find a way to create and have more success vs Kesler. If they continue to get eaten alive, the Flames don't stand much chance.
Keeping up at 5v5
The addition of Patrick Eaves has allowed the Ducks to shift Corey Perry down the lineup and really balance their lines (Ryan Getzlaf, Perry and Kesler are each on their own unit).
Those changes paid off in a big way as the Ducks didn't lose in regulation during their final 14 games and were completely dominant over the last 25.
During that span, the Ducks generated more scoring chances per 60 minutes than every team in hockey and no team allowed fewer 5v5 goals.
Most of every game is played at 5v5, obviously, so the Flames need to find a way to slow them down in that game state. Depending on how the depth holds up, Glen Gulutzan may be forced to shorten the bench, (mostly) take the 4th line/3rd pairing out of the equation, play the crap out of his top guys and hope for the best.
Goaltending
As mentioned above, the Ducks have allowed fewer 5v5 goals than everyone over the last 25 games. Part of that is because they're a really good team, and the other part is due to fantastic goaltending (they have a .941SV% at 5v5 during that stretch).
John Gibson has been excellent all season and Jonathan Bernier did a great job of filling in for Gibson when he went down with an injury. The Ducks can bank on good goaltending every night, which means the Flames will need the same from Brian Elliott to have a shot.
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