Follow @SMaloughney I decided this year I am not going to do a Pacific Division prediction on where each team will finish in the standings. The reason is no matter what I predict I will most likely be wrong and I like to avoid being wrong. Injuries, slumps, breakout years, voodoo. There are numerous factors to consider and “good on paper… doesn’t always translate to wins.
Instead I’m going to take a look at each team in the Pacific division and break down the reasons why they will or won’t make it to the post-season. This started out as one blog but it looks like this is going to be a two part deal.
ANAHEIM DUCKS
WHY THEY WILL MAKE IT
I missed out on Todd’s Hotstove on who the best tandem goaltending unit in the NHL was but I would have selected Anaheim. Between John Gibson and Ryan Miller the Ducks have two players that could both be defined as starters. Gibson in particular is rock solid, boasting one of the best SV% of last season at .926. The 25 year old is just entering the prime of his career and should only improve moving forward.
Part of the reason Gibson looks as good as he does is a result of the young and talented D core in front of him. Bob Murray has fully embraced the fast, mobile, puck moving defense that the NHL is trending towards. Hampus Lindholm is a #1 and arguably the most underrated defenseman in the entire league. Add to that the likes of Cam Fowler, Brandon Montour, and Josh Manson and things look bright for the Ducks blueline.
WHY THEY WON’T
The defense and goaltending is strong but production from the front end may be a growing concern. Only two players surpassed 50 points for the Ducks last season. Perry and Getzlaf are both past the primes of their careers with Getzlaf missing time last year due to injury. Speaking of injuries, Ryan Kesler may not suit up this season which would be another big loss. Unless players like Silfverberg and Kase take big steps forward, goal scoring could be a major concern for this team. ARIZONA COYOTES
WHY THEY WILL MAKE IT
The Coyotes have struggled greatly over almost the past decade but some smart moves from their new baby faced GM could see the team trending upwards. Clayton Keller burst onto the scene in a big way last year with a 65 point campaign. Galchenyuk over Domi is another smart move that improves their centre depth in a big way.
The Coyotes, like the Ducks may rely heavily on their backend. Antti Raanta started the season injured but once coming back he was one of the best goaltenders in the entire league posting a .930 SV%. If Raanta is able to continue building on his success during the second half of the season, the Coyotes could be a darkhorse pick. WHY THEY WON’T
The Coyotes are trending upward but that doesn’t mean they are there yet. Many question marks exist in a number of key positions. Derek Stepan is a good player but shouldn’t be relied on as a #1. Players like Perlini, Hinostroza, and Strome are young players with potential but none of them has exceeded even 30 points yet in the NHL. Potential is the name of the game in Arizona and unless many of these gambles work out the Coyotes will likely fall short once again.
CALGARY FLAMES
WHY THEY WILL MAKE IT
You gotta hand it to the Flames. They needed to upgrade their secondary scoring and they did so in a big way. Gone is Ferland, Stajan, and Brouwer. Enter James Neal, Derek Ryan, and Elias Lindholm. The additional boost up front should take some of the weight off of the likes of Gaudreau and Monahan. Add to this group the “love to have him hate to play against him… Matthew Tkachuk and the Flames now have a much more complete group up front that should mesh well with a decent backend.
WHY THEY WON’T
In order to acquire Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm, Brad Treliving parted ways with Dougie Hamilton. The Flames GM seems to be banking on Mark Giordano and TJ Brodie showing the same chemistry and skill they showed 2 years ago together. Giordano will be 35 before this season begins and both he and Brodie’s production has dropped over the past couple of years. Hamilton was a true #1 player and his loss may hurt the team more than expected.
The biggest reason the Flames will not make the playoffs is Mike Smith. It’s true Smith was the MVP during his first season with the Flames and his later season injury showed how important he was to this team. One has to ask the question however how long can he keep it up. Smith will be 37 before this season ends and like all older players, seeing a drop off in play should not come as a surprise. EDMONTON OILERS
WHY THEY WILL MAKE IT
Connor McDavid. You cannot have a discussion about the Oilers without talking about the best player in hockey. The two time Art Ross winner is only 21 years old and as mind boggling as it is to think is still getting better. McDavid alone could drag a team into the playoffs but hopefully he won’t have to. Closer to the end of last season we saw RNH and McDavid team up and create a strong duo option for the Oilers top line. This will put Draisaitl on the second line giving him an advantage in matchups, likely seeing the German player paired with Tobias Rieder or Jesse Puljujarvi.
This season we should see the return of the Klefbom-Larsson pairing which was sorely lacking last year. Between Klefbom’s nagging injury from the post season the year prior, combined with the untimely and tragic death of Adam Larsson’s father, neither player had their best season. Both players are locked up long term and are a huge part of this organization going forward. Perhaps more importantly is that Cam Talbot should bounce back. The netminder is just entering his 30’s and his prior SV% averages suggest last season was an outlier and not a new norm.
Lastly the oft discussed PP and PK should be miles better. The additions of new coaches Gulutzan, Yawney, and Viveiros bring in new voices to mix up the stale strategies. Special teams were abysmal for the Oilers last season and even an average PK and PP could have pushed this team into playoff contention. WHY THEY WON’T
It’s nice to write those first couple paragraphs but the reality is this is still a team with some major holes. Peter Chiarelli is once again hoping someone will step up to save his job. If the likes of Jesse Puljujarvi, Milan Lucic, Ty Rattie, Ryan Strome, etc are not able to step up the task of scoring will once again fall on the shoulders of McDavid, Draisaitl, and RNH. Players like Drake Caggiula are given too much ice time without meritting results and this stubbornness by McLellan is a major problem.
On the back end, Klefbom is a #1 when healthy but he has only been truly healthy for one year of his professional career. If Klefbom is out for any large amount of time than there are no real options to cover him. Andrej Sekera is likely out for the full season and we wait patiently for Darnell Nurse to sign. I do have faith in Talbot bouncing back but should he falter and the 2.5 million dollar man Koskinen isn’t all he is cracked up to be the season could be over for Edmonton as early as December.