The expansion draft is looming on the horizon like a storm. Ducks fans are concerned, and rightfully so, that they will lose a key player when the Golden Knights make their selection from the Anaheim roster.
Many mock drafts I have read show the Ducks losing Jakob Silfverberg. I'm going to step out on a limb and say that isn't going to happen. My reasoning is long and at times complicated, but sound. I'm going to lay out some draft rules and scenarios about what will go on between now and the draft on June 21.
Must vs. May
There are a few things that need to be cleared up. The thirty teams must leave two forwards and a defenseman, who are both under contract for 2017-18 AND have played in 40 games this season or 70 games over the past two seasons. Additionally, one goalie under contract for 2017-18 or who is a restricted free agent must also be made available
Fans more often look at who a team may protect. Either seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters and one goalie. May is the key word. By my estimates, approximately 18 teams don't have enough eligible players to protect a full cadre. Free agents make up a huge part of the remaining league player pool. There will be plenty of transactions between now and the date teams must submit their protected lists on June 17.
Jockeying for Position
One reason players like William Carrier and Freddie Hamilton (and probably Chris Wagner) are getting more playing time around the league is to get them to the games played requirements. Some pending free agents who meet those requirements will be re-signed in order to make them eligible for the draft so other players can be protected. Next up, this year's trade deadline going to be an active one. Some teams will be forced to leave valuable assets exposed for expansion. It may be better for teams to trade that asset and get some return than loose them for nothing.
Forgotten Element
There is a major fact that has been overlooked by many pundits. Vegas has no minor league system. More importantly they will have zero prospects to build a foundation for the franchise. Teams with deep organizations will be of special interest to the Golden Knights GM George McPhee.
Backroom Deals
Murray is one of the best at what he does. If anyone can turn lemons into lemonade its him.
There will be two types of under the radar negotiating. First up, GMs will be convincing some players with no movement clauses to waive them for the draft. For the Ducks its Kevin Bieksa that needs to be dealt with. If Bieksa can't be convinced to waive the clause, it puts Ducks General Manager in a tough spot. Murray does have an ace in the hole to work with.
As mentioned earlier, Vegas has no minor league or junior prospects. The Ducks have one of the deepest organizations in the league. Here is the scenario I expect to happen between Murray and McPhee:
“George this Bob Murray in Anaheim.… “Hey Bob, what can I do for you?… “Well George, I think I talked Kevin Bieksa in waiving his no movement clause for the expansion draft.… “That's great, we could use a veteran leader like him, Bob.… “That isn't what I was getting to George, we want to keep him.… “I see Bob, what did you have in mind?… “Josh Manson is on the list too… “He'd be a nice addition as well Bob.… “We also left Jared Boll unprotected. George, I'll make it worth your while to select him.… “Go on Bob.… “You know we are very deep in San Diego, I have a list of good prospects* for you to choose from and I'll send one to you George for a low draft pick or fringe player.… “Sounds good Bob.… “Just one more thing George, I saw that (team x) didn't protect (player y), I can send you another top prospect** and a mid round pick if you draft him and send him up to Anaheim. “You got a deal Bob.…
That last part about the package trade was wishful thinking, but its entirely possible. *a player such as Julius Natanen or Marcus Petterson. ** Brandon Montour
Draft Week
Anaheim is one team that has more eligible players than they can protect. By my estimates the Ducks will leave the following players exposed:
Jared Boll Logan Shaw and/or Joseph Cramerosa (if they sign extensions before June 17). Andrew Coglaino (if another forward isn't acquired or extended) Kevin Bieksa (waives NMC) Josh Manson Clayton Stoner (needs 5 more games) Dustin Tokarski
Without a deal in advance, Manson is likely to go. Its a tough pill to swallow because he has been a steady physical presence and solid defender. I don't see how he gets protected over Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, or Cam Fowler, if they are still with the team. The good news is that in this scenario the Ducks still have Montour and Jacob Larsson waiting in the wings.
Bottom Line
I fully expect Silfverberg will be a Duck next season. If Anaheim has to lose a core player, a second pair defenseman isn't the worst outcome. It probably won't even come to that. The Ducks might get nicked, but not bloodied in the expansion draft. All will be OK.
On Deck
Monday, I'll have a Q&A with Ducks radio color commentator Dan Wood