Last night 4-3-1 +1.11 Units YTD 191-171-5 +28.01 Units
Very small card with only 4 games for our Sunday card! The first game of the day is a potential first round playoff match up with Boston at Pittsburgh. The other 3 games don’t offer much as Philly and the Rangers are pretty much out of the playoff picture as the teams they are chasing keep winning.
**I have started to research teams that come off at least a 5 game road trip and how they fare in their first game back home.** Its 10-8 to date.
Scenario #1 – Teams that are rested, either sitting at home or on the road while their opponent plays the night before. 22-10 over the last month of tracking it! The under is 18-13-1 in these spots. Boston and Philly fit this spot, play both of them!
Scenario #2 – Teams that are playing each other in back to back games, in which the home team loses the first game, the record of the home team in the second game is 79-52.
Scenario #3 – Teams playing back to back road games on consecutive nights tend to go under the total in the 2nd game. So far that trend is 38-29-2 when teams play on the road back to back nights.
Scenario #4 - One last angle I am tracking that is slightly profitable and similar to Scenario #1, is when any team loses the first game of a back to back against the same team, regardless if it’s on the road or at home, those teams are 95-69 in that situation.
Quick stat updates - First period totals going over were 9-2 last night and are 353-377 on the season. Road teams were 7-4 last night and are 346-375 on the season. Game totals going over the total were 6-3-2 last night and are 337-350-32 on the season.
Gamenotes for tonight –
Bruins/Pitt – 3PM – Play Scenario #1. Boston has won 4 of 6 head to head and 5 of 6 have gone under the total this season.
NJ/Philly – Play Scenario #1. Philly has won 2 of 3 head to head this year and 2 of 3 have gone over the total.
Buffalo/NYR – So weird stat, these 2 teams have played 6 times head to head, but 5 of those games the score has been 3-2!! Making 5 of 6 going under the total this season. NYR has won 4 of 6 head to head.
CLB/TB – Tampa has won 4 of 7 head to head and 4 of 7 have gone under the total this season.
All system plays for 1 Unit each tonight –
Boston- ML(-122) Philly – ML(-202)
Good luck tonight!
Puckpix