Well this is it.
We’ve ventured through the best Flames season in decades and finally find ourselves preparing for the inevitable heartbreak of playoff hockey. Prepare to to cheer. Prepare to scream at your television. Prepare yourself for all variants of crying, be it elation, sorrow or even a maniacal cry-laugh as the referees call a Flames penalty late in the third period of a 1-1 game.
Playoffs are coming and all we can do is watch and react. It’s an honour to share this journey with all of you. Let’s have some fun this Spring.
The Hand of Fate The Stars started yesterday with a 12.9% chance of playing the Flames in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Nashville had to lose in regulation to the Arizona Coyotes and Dallas had to win against the Anaheim Ducks.
The Hockey Gods clearly have something in mind for the next two weeks.
As we all predicted, the Arizona Coyotes stormed back from a 4-0 deficit to take the game 5-4. Rookie goaltender Connor Ingram has to be feeling that one this morning.
Then there was the Stars game. A rare two injury occurrence happened for Ducks goaltenders John Gibson and Anthony Stolarz.
In goes in-house emergency backup and insurance salesman John Hodges.
Donning a Dallas Stars mask and Dallas Stars green pads to go with an unlettered #68 Anaheim Ducks goalie jersey, Tom faced only three shots in 19:16 of play. One of which was a one-timer that found it’s way past him after he fell over. That goal served as the game winner. He finished the night with a .667 save percentage.
It should be noted that Tom has no vision in his left eye.
Robertson’ one-timer goal also happened to be shot from the left side of the ice. Fancy that.
The Hand of Fate put us here, so let’s enjoy the ride. How do these teams match up?
The Season Series The Flames won two of three games against the Stars this season.
November 4 – A 4-3 OT Stars win. The game featured two late-period swings; a goal from former Flame, Blake Comeau, late in the second to tie the game at 2-2 and a goal by Nikita Zadorov late in the third to tie the game 3-3.
Jamie Benn would go on to seal the game 2:59 into overtime for the extra point.
February 1 – A 4-3 comeback victory for the Flames. Some call it their best comeback of the season. Mangiapane, Gaudreau and Kylington scored goals within a span of 3:37 to silence American Airlines Center.
Goaltender Jacob Markstrom was swapped for Daniel Vladar between periods. The first time Markstrom would be swapped mid-game this season.
April 21 – A 4-2 Flames win. Rasmus Andersson (two assists) and Andrew Mangiapane (one goal, one assist) led the way offensively. Former OT hero, Jamie Benn, put up a stinker of a night finishing -3.
Home Ice Advantage? The April 21 victory snapped a five game losing streak to the Stars in games at the Saddledome. 1-3-2 isn’t a great statistic. Even worse is their head-to-head record against each other. Dallas is 8-2-2 in their last 12 against Calgary despite the Flames winning their last two.
Perhaps it’s best not to look back that far. The Stars’ physical style has been a challenge for the Flames of former seasons. Long term injuries and the departures of Jamie Oleksiak and Mattias Janmark have led to a less physical Dallas team.
This season’s 2-0-1 may be a much better indicator of how this series will play out.
The 21-22 Season We can look at the Dallas Stars’ record of 46-30-6 over 82 games for 96 points and conclude they are a playoff quality team.
We can look at the Calgary Flames’ record of 50-20-11 for 111 points and conclude that they’re a little better than the Stars.
We all know that hockey is very much a momentum based game and a team in November looks a lot different than the same team playing in April. Let’s isolate them to the last three months.
Since February 1
Dallas Stars: 23-13-4 – 50 points – 10th in NHL Goals for: 109 Goals against: 118 Powerplay %: 18.6 Penalty kill %: 83.3 Leading scorer: Jason Robertson 40GP 25G 14A 39pts
Calgary Flames: 29-8-5 – 63 points – 1st in NHL Goals for: 165 Goals against: 107 Powerplay %: 23.9 Penalty kill %: 82.7 Leading scorer: Johnny Gaudreau 42GP 23G 40A 63pts
Obviously this puts the Flames in a good light. Let’s take the 10-1-0 February and 9-4-3 March out and just look at the last month for both teams.
Since April 1
Calgary Flames 10-3-2 – 22 points – 6th in NHL Goals for: 59 Goals against: 42 Powerplay %: 18.2 Penalty kill %: 80.8 Leading scorer: Jason Robertson 16GP 10G 8A 18pts
Dallas Stars 8-5-3 – 19 points – 9th in NHL Goals for: 42 Goals against: 50 Powerplay %: 21.4 Penalty kill %: 82.8 Leading scorer: Johnny Gaudreau 15GP 9G 15A 24pts
10-3-2 vs 8-5-3. Now that is a much closer race. Even with one of those Dallas wins being due to a half-blind emergency backup.
What is a little more of an indicator is the goal differentials. Calgary a +17 and Dallas a -8. Let’s take a look at their offence/defence.
Calgary Flames since April 1 Goals for per game: 3.39 (7th) Goals against per game: 2.80 (5th)
Dallas Stars since April 1 Goals for per game: 2.63 (26th) Goals against per game: 3.13 (12th)
The Dallas Stars’ lack of offence may be the key to this series. Put that against Calgary’s 5th ranked defence and we get a better idea of how this series might play out. We’re in for some tight-to-the-belt hockey and if the Flames’ offence can keep scoring at around 3.39GF/GP then the Stars are toast.
Which takes us to the next factor.
Dead Weight The Stars have more or less one good offensive line. That of Hintz-Pavelski-Robertson. Let’s look at the Stars’ top producers this month.
Tyler Seguin aside, a significant drop off is noticeable. Even worse is that the bottom of the list is frequented by former impact offensive players.
Joel Kiviranta, Denis Gurianov, and Alex Radulov were major impact players in Dallas’ 2020 run to the Stanley Cup Finals. All three are playing broken-down hockey and only have four points between them in 16 possible games.
Without secondary offence, the Stars will be leaning hard on 23 year old goaltender Jake Oettinger to keep them in the game. Jake is 6-4-0 in April with a .907 save percentage. Backing up Oettinger is Scott Wedgwood who started 6/16 of Dallas’ April games to a record of 2-1-3 and a .908 save percentage. If we see Wedgewood in net at any point this series; it’s fair to assume the Stars are in hot water.
Injured are veteran goalies Anton Khudobin and Braden Holtby. Running your third and fourth string goaltenders in the first round isn’t exactly a recipe for success.
Today is a review of the overall results of this season for both teams as well as a few keys to their first round series. Prior to game one on Tuesday, we will take a more “eye test… approach as well as a sizing up of each roster. Regular season stats are useful, but regular season hockey is not playoff hockey. More on that in the days to come.
Load your fridge and temper your heart.
Trevor Neufeld
@Trevor_Neufeld