The last 3 games have given the fan base of the Ottawa Senators a renewed optimism, and watching social media and in person reactions during games I now firmly believe that playoffs or no playoffs, the fans would rather see their team compete night in and night out rather than lose and get better odds at a top draft pick.
I thought the team had the ability to be a playoff team at the start of the season, and I still think the talent level is there. My problem over the last couple of seasons has been the stability in goal, and while I was chastised for bringing that up so often, it continues to be the elephant in the room. Craig Anderson has always been a goalie that can run very hot, but then goes stone cold, and this season he hasn't had the hot run as of yet.
So, the big question is, is a playoff run in the cards? 10 points. That is the current gap between the Senators and the Penguins, who occupy the 2nd wild card spot.
7 teams. That is the number of clubs the Senators would have to pass to get into the Wild Card spot.
The other option is tracking down the Maple Leafs, who hold a 15 point edge on the Sens (with the Sens holding 3 games in hand) and 3 remaining head to head mach-ups, but with 3 other teams to pass.
The good news is, they have a half season left to make up the ground. If they can win their next two games, against Chicago and Toronto in a back to back starting Tuesday night, there might be a bit more reason for optimism, but their margin for error is razor thin.
Another obstacle standing in their way is that following those 2 games, the Sens then go on their bye week, and won't play for 8 days, returning for 5 more before the All-Star break.
If you use 95 points as the target, the Senators would need 58 points in their remaining 42 games to get a playoff spot. That is playing almost .700 hockey for a full half season.
Flash back to February 13,2015, and the Senators trailed the Bruins by 11 points with four teams to pass when Andrew Hammond was forced into action after the fateful collision between Clarke MacArthur and Robin Lehner that knocked both out of action. They went 22-7-3 in their last 32 games (.734 WP) and actually finished as the 7 seed and beat Boston by 3 points.
Those aren't good odds, and the run in 2015 was borderline miraculous. I will be tough to keep any momentum going with the starts and stops in the schedule, but if somehow they come out of the break and keep the gap under 10 points, then there might be some hope.
Health is a key factor, as is the space between the ears of the guys between the pipes. The Senators' biggest runs over the last couple of playoff appearances has been largely on the backs of unproven backups like Hammond and Mike Condon. Perhaps the best thing that would happen to them would be a Danny Taylor sighting?
So, bottom line, while there might be a chance, it is going to be a month or so before we will really know if that chance is legitimate or a pipe dream, and that is only if they keep winning at a certain pace. If they fall off the pace by taking a step or two back, as they have been prone to do all season, then it will be all for naught in the grand scheme of things.
I don't want to throw cold water on the optimism, but just enjoy the ride while it lasts, whether that be a week, month or into May!