Yesterday I came across the following tweet and thought it was interesting.
New Feature on MoneyPuck! Shot Maps and Shooting Talent Adjusted Expected Goals https://t.co/r3tZOoo7U6 pic.twitter.com/2kvuADJ9Sg
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) February 4, 2020
Shooting talent is an interesting dynamic with players. It can really shape and morph the way you build a team. You can have good (or even very good) hockey players who do a lot of things right, but it can be problematic if they cannot score goals. I think of the Carolina Hurricanes from a few years back who would consistently put up quality xGF and struggle to actually convert those goals. I think of players like Thomas Vanek who had awful underlying numbers, but would always come strong with his shooting percentage and ability to score goals. I think depending on the roster construction you could have room for a Thomas Vanek type of player if the underlying numbers of the team are good.
I don’t think the Penguins have a shooting talent issue on their team. In fact, I think they have a number of players who are pretty good at it. However, they are missing their best shooter and he might be out for the rest of the year.
Jake Guentzel has been great at scoring goals since entering the league. He scored on his first shot and hasn’t slowed down much since. This is a huge loss. This is an obvious take. There is still some shooting talent on the team and here are the numbers for all the Penguins forwards sans Teddy Blueger who didn’t have a large enough sample.
For the most part I don’t think there are any surprises. You have Crosby and Malkin near the top. Dominik Simon is exactly where everybody would think. Hornqvist isn’t known for his hands. I think one of the bigger surprises was how pedestrian Alex Galchenyuk is. His shot is supposed to be one of his primary assets and it appears it isn’t. Kessel for comparison’s sake was a positive 15.3%. Jared McCann is a strong shooter and we’ve seen evidence of that in his time with the Penguins.
How can we use this information moving forward? The Penguins are obviously going to make a trade for a winger to try and fill the void left by Jake Guentzel. There are a few options to be had. The Penguins have quality underlying numbers when they are healthy. Might they take a risk on a player with some shooting talent even if there are some flaws? It is hard to ignore what Ilya Kovalchuk has done in Montreal since being traded away from LA. The Canadiens aren’t a realistically in the playoff race at this point. Kovalchuk is a pending UFA and makes very little money. I know the Penguins didn’t have interest in Kovlachuk before he went to Montreal, according to Bob McKenzie, but it might be worth revisiting for the shooting talent. Especially with how the power play has looked on the left side this year. Here is Kovalchuk and some of the other potential wingers available with their shooting talents listed.
It should be no surprise that Kovalchuk is a natural shooter. He is considered to have one of the best shots of all time. He has ten points in 12 games with Montreal. I know some people don’t want to “mess with the chemistry… of the Penguins, but they do have a huge void with Jake Guentzel out of the lineup and Kovalchuk would fill a part of that void even if he isn’t a perfect fit. It is something to think about at the very least.
It all depends on the kind of fit you want. I think the Penguins should look towards filling the shooting talent area without Guentzel. I personally think the Penguins can gamble on some shooting talent because of their return to speed and skill throughout the lineup. I would not have felt that way the previous two seasons. Jason Zucker seems like a good fit here. Chris Kreider has good numbers and I like him quite a bit. The cost of acquisition with Kreider seems like it will be among the higher prices this deadline and he is a rental.
I threw Tatar in there because when I was searching for Kovalchuk’s numbers I saw he was very strong in this area and he has one more year left at 4.8M. I think if Montreal would be willing to listen he could be a nice fit stylistically and cap wise. I have no idea if Montreal actually wants to move on from him. He is having a great year so the cost would be legit.
When you have a team with good underlying numbers it provides some flexibility to get specific with player needs and I think shooting talent can be one of those luxury items the Penguins can go for without sacrificing their overall product.
Thanks for reading!