For the next three weeks or so, the off-ice news will centre around the Vegas Golden Knights and who they will select in the expansion draft, and also what deals will be made and incentives offered to have them pick a certain player, or avoid taking a certain player.
For the Senators, the question is who will they protect and whether or not they will offer enough incentive to Vegas to have them take the player they would prefer to lose, and in fact who that in fact would be.
So, anticipated deal aside, who are the 9 or 11 players the Senators are going to protect? They two options they have are 1) 7 forwards, 3 defensemen and 1 goalie; or 2) 8 skaters and 1 goalie.
First off, the no-brainers & mandatories. As of right now, Dion Phaneuf has a no-movement clause and must be protected. Then there are Erik Karlsson, Kyle Turris, Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman who would be in my mind absolutely protected without discussion. Pierre Dorion also stated yesterday that Craig Anderson will be the goalie they protect.
The "most likely" list would include Derick Brassard and Zach Smith.
Assuming they choose the 7-3-1 route, that leaves 2 spaces for forwards. Among those would be Bobby Ryan (who we discussed yesterday about the pros and cons of leaving him unprotected), Clarke MacArthur, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Alex Burrows, Ryan Dzingel, who are all either under contract or RFA's.
The stipulations are that the team must expose 2 forwards who are under contract for next season, and that have played a minimal number of games over the past year or two (as such MacArthur wouldn't count towards the 2 exposed if they chose not to protect him).
So as of today, they only have 8 forwards under contract that would fit the exposure minimums, so my guess would be that they leave Burrows and Ryan unprotected. That could change when and if Dzingel signs a contract before the June 17th deadline, but for now, lets go with that.
On the blue line, the decision between Cody Ceci and Marc Methot is the key. There was some speculation that getting Dion Phaneuf to waive his no-move clause to allow them to protect both Ceci and Methot, because the likelihood of Vegas taking on Phaneuf's salary is pretty minimal at this point. I would argue that Methot's biggest value is how he plays with Erik Karlsson, and at just under $5M the likelihood of them plucking Methot are almost as slim. And the suggestion that they can tell Phaneuf that they have an agreement in place not to select him doesn't really hold water, because if such an agreement was in place they already know who Vegas has agreed to take, so it isn't worth the hassle of asking Phaneuf to waive his bargained right. Personally, I would protect Freddie Claesson over Ceci, but that is a personal preference, and obviously the club still thinks Ceci has more upside than he has shown over the past year.
Teams also have to expose 1 defenseman who is under contract and has played 40 games last season or 70 over the last two years. That is not a problem, with Mark Borowiecki, Chris Wideman and one of Methot, Ceci or Phaneuf being available.
They also have to expose a goalie who is under contract or a RFA with a qualifying offer received (with no GP minimum). The Senators satisfy that requirement with Andrew Hammond, regardless of whether or not they get Mike Condon signed before the list is due.
So, while having the potential to already have a deal in place by the time of the expansion draft makes it pretty much a moot point, my anticipated (but not necessarily my personal) protected list would be:
1. Craig Anderson 2. Erik Karlsson 3. Cody Ceci 4. Dion Phaneuf 5. Mark Stone 6. Kyle Turris 7. Mike Hoffman 8. Derick Brassard 9. Zack Smith 10. Jean-Gabriel Pageau 11. Ryan Dzingel
I put Dzingel in instead of MacArthur because I doubt Vegas would take MacArthur given his recent injury history and also the fact that he hasn't committed to play next season as of yet.
Players made available for Selection (Italics indicate they satisfy the exposure requirements): Bobby Ryan, Clarke MacArthur, Alex Burrows, Chris DiDomenico, Marc Methot, Mark Borowiecki, Chris Wideman, Freddie Claesson, Andrew Hammond and Matt O'Connor. They could also select any pending UFA, but Vegas has an extended window to negotiate with those players before the expansion draft, and if they were to strike a deal with one, there would be no need to use an expansion draft selection on one of them.