Over the past five years, the Senators have always have a pretty solid one-two punch at centre with players like Jason Spezza, Kyle Turris, Mika Zibanejad, Matt Duchene, and Derick Brassard all being part of the team. Centre has never really been a huge need, unless you want to quibble and say that they needed a truly elite first line centre instead.
Heading into the 2018-19 season though, due to Brassard being traded, the Senators have just one top-six centre: Matt Duchene.
As it stands, Jean-Gabriel Pageau is the team’s number two centre on the depth chart, but let’s be honest here: that spot is wide open for multiple players in the organization. Nobody on the current roster has the upside to become a top-six centre, as Zack Smith is more of a third liner, and Paul Carey is more of a warm body on an NHL roster. Pageau will have the role to begin with, but I just don’t think he’s well suited for that kind of responsibility.
It’s true that he has looked great while playing with somebody like Mark Stone, but that is true for most players. We have to look at his overall track record, and I just don’t think we can bank on Pageau being a consistent 40-45 point player. He recorded 43 points in 2015-16, but he had an insane seven shorthanded goals that year (next highest in a season for him is two), and his SH% was 14.3% as opposed to his career 10%.
He had 29 points in 78 games this past season and 33 the year before, so I think it’s perfectly reasonable to pencil him in for 30-35 points a year, but there’s no way that a good team has that kind of production out of their second line centre. Obviously the Senators might not be good for a while anyway, but the point is that Pageau isn’t a long-term answer for the second line, and he fits much more comfortably on the third.
That’s where some prospects come into the picture.
Logan Brown, Colin White, Filip Chlapik, Drake Batherson, and Aaron Luchuk should be excited right now because it’s not often that a team has an obvious hole like this on their roster. The second line centre spot is right there for the taking. I’m not counting on any of these players to grab hold of this spot right away, but they have to know that this is a massive opportunity for playing time.
Brown has the best chance to get this job because he has the highest ceiling, but there’s a chance that he begins the year in the AHL. White is in a similar spot, although he might have a leg up on making the Senators just because he’s a year older, but then again he might be destined to be more of a 3rd line centre. Chlapik has been playing on the wing in Ottawa and is an unlikely candidate, although he still has a chance, especially on a team that doesn’t have good centre depth at the NHL level.
Batherson and Luchuk probably won’t be making the team out of camp and might not even get into NHL games this season, but in the long run I can’t count them out for the second line centre spot either. They’re both late bloomers and are intriguing prospects, but Brown is still a better bet right now. If they succeed early on in Belleville, then there’s no reason why they can’t also get a chance to prove themselves in the NHL this season, and I see no downside for the Senators giving different players a chance in the top-six.
Brown makes the most sense for this role considering he’s a high first round pick that has a lot of skill, but not every first rounder turns out to be good. There’s some other quality competition, and the prospects that I’ve listed still have a chance. If the Senators aren’t going to be very competitive this season, then there will at least be internal competition, which will mainly be for the 2C spot.
We may not know the answer to this question at the end of the year, but we do know that anybody can take the spot right now.