Last night 1-2 -2.44 Units YTD 166-142-3 +32.05 Units
We got a 10 game card for Saturday! The biggest game of the day could be TB/Nashville as the Preds look to keep a strangle hold on that 4th spot in the Central Division.
All 3 games in the North Division are intriguing match ups as team jockey for position in the North.
When looking at the card today, so many teams desperate for a win to stay in the playoff hunt! Can Minnesota rebound from an awful game last night?! Can the Sharks continue to push for that final playoff?
**I have started to research teams that come off at least a 5 game road trip and how they fare in their first game back home.** Its 8-6 to date. Dallas off a 6 game roadie, play Florida tonight.
Scenario #1 – Teams that are rested, either sitting at home or on the road while their opponent plays the night before. 18-7 over the last month of tracking it! Hitting at 74% rate! As well, the under is a nice 15-9-1 in these spots!
Scenario #2 – Teams that are playing each other in back to back games, in which the home team loses the first game, the record of the home team in the second game is 71-42. Hitting at 54% success rate. Montreal fits the system tonight.
Scenario #3 – Teams playing back to back road games on consecutive nights tend to go under the total in the 2nd game. So far that trend is 33-23-2 when teams play on the road back to back nights. Minny/STL and LA/SJ fit the system tonight.
Scenario #4 - One last angle I am tracking that is slightly profitable and similar to Scenario #1, is when any team loses the first game of a back to back against the same team, regardless if it’s on the road or at home, those teams are 94-67 in that situation. Minnesota and LA( I am not playing them) fit the system tonight.
Quick stat updates - First period totals going over were 5-2 last night and are 288-329 on the season. Road teams were 4-3 last night and are 291-319 on the season. Game totals going over the total were 5-2 last night and are 289-299-20 on the season.
Gamenotes for tonight –
Bruins/Flyers – 2PM – Bruins have won 6 of 7 head to head and 5 of 7 have gone over the total this season.
Florida/Dallas – 2PM – Dallas off a 6 game roadie. Florida has won 4 of 5 head to head and 4 of 5 have gone under the total.
Detroit/Carolina – Canes have won 3 of 5 head to head but the 2 Detroit wins came at home.
Hawks/Jackets – Both teams trending in the wrong direction but the Hawks need this one way more! Hawks have won 4 of 6 head to head and 4 of 6 have gone under the total.
Jets/Habs – Play Scenario #2. Jets have won 5 of 7 head to head. The last 5 games have gone over the total, 6 of 7 over the total overall too. Habs 2 wins against the Jets were on the road.
Sens/Leafs – Sens have gone under the total 8 of their last 10 overall. Leafs have won 4 of 7 head to head but 3 of those wins were by one goal!
TB/Nashville – TB has lost 5 of their last 8 games whereas the Preds have won 9 of their last 10 games. TB won their first 5 games head to head but Preds won the last one.
Wild/Blues – Play Scenario #3. Prior to the Blues win over Vegas they had lost 7 in a row but then last night they put up 9 goals, I look for a huge bounce back with Minny tonight.
Oilers/Flames – Flames are 2-8 in their last 10 but have been off for 5 days, lets see how they respond. Oilers have won 5 of 7 head to head, the Flames two wins were at home!
LA/SJ – Play Scenario #3. Sharks have now won 6 of 7 head to head this season after last nights win.
All system plays for 1 Unit each tonight –
Florida – ML(-110) Habs – ML(-129) Minnesota – ML(-113) Wild/Blues u5.5(-109) LA/SJ u5.5(+105)
Good luck tonight!
Puckpix