(Quick programming note up top. Due to the Sabres' hiatus until February 10, there will be some alternative content posted between now and then. This is a head’s up in case readers also want to chime in on the game action that will be covered:
Friday, February 4: Rochester Americans Vs. Charlotte Checkers
Sunday, February 6 - via Sabres.com classic games: 2006 Game 1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Those will be the upcoming games and blog topics if you’re interested in also watching.)
*************************************
The Sabres are currently who we thought they would be were prior to the season: they’re in 27th place overall and 6th in their division after 45 games played.
They’re not objectively the worst team to ever lace them up as some predicted them to be, and they’re not surprisingly good either. They’re mostly watchable but also easy to tune out when it’s clear they don’t have their best stuff on any given night. If the NHL lottery happened tonight, they would most likely pick somewhere between 6-to-8 which is where they’ve picked a lot in recent history, so it’s hard to notice a real difference between this year’s club and the last few that had many better players.
On some level it’s even hard to work up a strong opinion about the club because – again – they’re basically exactly what it appeared they’d be: sub-mediocre but better-than-terrible. Let’s dig into the team stat rankings and see what’s available there to parse.
Traditional Stats:
Goals For: (25th)
Goals Against (26th)
Power Play (17th)
Penalty Kill (26th)
Shots/Game (28th)
Shots Against/Game (31st)
FOW% (31st)
SV% - (T-23rd)
Shooting % (T-23rd)
Advanced Stats (Via hockeyreference.com):
Expected Goals For (27th)
Expected Goals Against (28th)
Scoring Chances For (31st)
Scoring Chances Against (24th)
PDO (25th)
It’s pretty clear that the stats also think that the Sabres are who they should be as well. They’re right in that 27th to 28th range in a lot of categories and it’s hard to argue that they should be better or worse than they really are.
The question at this point is whether Sabres fans are satisfied with the current trajectory of the team as one that will likely pick 6th or 8th or somewhere thereabouts. The good news on missing out on an ultra-high pick is that the draft doesn’t appear as top heavy as it once did due to the falling draft stock of (formerly) presumed number 1 overall draft pick Shane Wright. Sure, the Sabres could win the lottery and perhaps they will have an opportunity to select a top pick if you still have your eyes on one of the top selections in the draft, however it’s more likely the Sabres fall out of that contention. (There will be plenty of time later to speculate on whom the Sabres could select at the draft in summer).
On a personal level, too, the Sabres are performing more-or-less how fans could have assumed under the tutelage of Don Granato and Co. during their first full season with a growing club. Rasmus Dahlin is on pace for the most points in his young career, as are Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens, and Rasmus Asplund.
Some older players are performing better than expected: Kyle Okposo is operating on a point pace not seen since his first season in Buffalo when he was 28 years old, and he hadn’t yet sustained a number of concussions. Jeff Skinner, likewise, is second on the team in scoring and has found his way back to having some fun and is also treating the home fans to numerous Miley Cyrus song playings at the arena.
Some players like Victor Olofsson have fallen off a cliff. Some players like Cody Eakin fell off the cliff years ago and never climbed back up. The goalies are mostly old, bad or hurt. The biggest disappointment has been the status of Casey Mittelstadt and his repeated injuries this season which have limited him to only seven games. Mittelstadt was supposed to be in the middle of a campaign to determine whether he has what it takes to be a top-six center in the league. Instead, all we have are questions as to whether Mittelstadt has the durability to make through a full season, and also whether the Sabres medical staff is up to snuff.
If you were betting on this team to be one thing, it’s basically the thing that they are. So what do fans do with that information? It’s not very easy to be mad at a team that wasn’t expected to be good when they’re not good – because they’re also not “Event Horizon Hell dimension… bad. By the same token, no one is going to hang them a banner just because they suck just about the same amount that they sucked while still employing Jack Eichel, Taylor Hall, Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen and others.
Frankly it’s just about impossible to have a hot take relating to this team. The coach has coached an underwhelming roster to an underwhelming result and they’ve largely managed to not puke all over themselves or lose 18 games in a row. Perhaps that’s good enough for now. In any case, it’s the reality of the situation.