We’re staring down the final 3 weeks leading up to the NHL trade deadline. As we’ve covered a few different times, the Oilers are actually a good team. It’s both confusing and exciting. For the first time in a long time Edmonton is not going to be a seller at the deadline. How much they buy is up in the air, but there’s no doubt that the Oil can be a player if they want to be this year.
We have a solid decade of experience selling pieces for sad returns at the deadline. Every bit player who you think should net the team at least a 2nd rounder invariably ends up only netting a conditional 4th. The slug you think nobody wants goes for a 2nd, Pollock, and Jokipakka. It’s a tale as old as time. Finally, though, Edmonton is in a position to pick off some talent from a struggling club to help them down the stretch.
I’m going to look at the teams in the East and the West who appear to be out of the running and then looking for players who are prime rental targets because of their contracts and general fit with Edmonton’s needs. I’ll break that down into two articles: First East then the West.
Now I’m not going to do anything crazy with my picks for potential sellers at the deadline in the East. I’m simply going with the three teams at the bottom of the Eastern standings: Buffalo, Detroit, and Tampa Bay. Truth be told, the teams all have 54 points which places them just 5 points out of the playoff picture. The issue is that they would need to leapfrog 6-8 teams just to steal a wildcard spot. The points in the standings are a bit of a mirage in that sense.
The Buffalo Sabres are 8th out of the 10 clubs fighting for two wildcard spots with just 22 wins and are negative 18 in goal differential. The odds that this team is going to overcome the odds in the final quarter of the season seem quite low and there are a number of players on the team who are pending UFAs that might best be served netting the club picks or prospects.
While none of the three players are number one on my personal list of rentals, there’s no doubt that teams around the league might be interested in adding depth like Brian Gionta, Dmitry Kulikov, and Cody Franson.
Dmitry Kulikov – LHD – 26 - $4,333,333
The 6’1…, 204 pound Kulikov has played just 27 games this season and picked up 1-1-2 along the way. The former 14th overall pick in the 2009 Draft is playing in his 8th NHL season and this is his worst offensively so far. In the 3 years before this one he scored 19, 22, and 17 points respectively. At more than 4 million, his total lack of offense this season is alarming.
Kulikov is playing 22:43 a night, which is a lot of hockey when he does make it into the lineup. He’s been partnered mostly with Ristolainen 5v5. The duo have struggled significantly in terms of shot attempts. Kulikov and Risto are a 44.3% CF together but the Russian rearguard jumps to 48.6% when he’s apart. This should be taken into account before his raw CF% is used to rule him out. As well, he was a 50% shot attempt player in Florida in the 3 years prior to joining the Sabres.
He’s an option, but as another LHD, I don’t see him as a good fit in Edmonton.
Cody Franson – RHD – 29 – $3,325,000
Franson is much maligned among the fancy stats skeptics, but his numbers are simply there. He’s a big boy at 6’5…, 224 pounds and he can move the puck relatively well. He’s the 2nd highest scoring defender on Buffalo with 50GP, 3-13-16 this season. As a Maple Leaf he was good for point totals in the high 20s or early 30s. Edmonton is a higher scoring club, there’s more opportunity to pick up points here than in Buffalo.
As a pending UFA he has done pretty well on a bottom tier club. He’s playing 18:52 a night, which places him on the bottom half of his club’s usage. It might be wise to note that on Edmonton the ready-made spot for a RHD is on the 2nd pairing with PP time. It would be likely that Franson’s ice-time would rise here. That could lead to Franson playing above his head.
So far, in the role he’s been given on the Sabres, Franson has 2nd highest shot attempt percentage on the blueline (50.8%) and he has the highest 5v5 Points per 60 minutes by far. He’s definitely an intriguing potential rental for the Oilers. It would allow the club to push Russell to his natural side and give Sekera a partner who can move the puck. Fixing the balance of left and right handed shots is a big plus if it can come inexpensively.
Brian Gionta – RW – 38 – $4,250,000
The miniature elder statesman of the Sabres is the Captain of the club and has a modified No Trade Clause which sees him submit a list of 5 tradable teams. Is Edmonton on that list? Bloody unlikely. Still, let’s look at the merits of trading for Gionta.
The number one reason is that Gionta is still a productive RW, even while logging under 17 minutes a night. He has 53GP, 12-15-27 this year. Of note, he’s 23 games away from hitting 1000 in his career. So whoever (if anyone) adds Gionta to their roster is committed to throwing a party for the guy but they are getting a ton of experience.
Gionta is tops among Sabres players in Points per 60 minutes 5v5 with 1.89, but he’s dead last amond Sabres forwards in CF% with 45.4%. He’s relatively expensive, small, and appears to be a possession black hole, but he scores well and has loads of experience. Plus there’s that NTC.
Moving on to Detroit, there’s just one player there that stands out as a rental option of note for the Oilers but it’s a popular one.
Thomas Vanek – LW – 33 – $2,600,000
The Oilers don’t need a left wing but Vanek is a right shot who normally plays the left side. It’s not out of the question to put him on the right side and play him anywhere in Edmonton’s top three lines. Vanek is the Red Wings’ 2nd highest scoring player with 41GP, 13-20-33. He’s also only playing 14:41 a night in Detroit, which makes his offensive production all the more impressive.
Vanek is the kind of addition that could allow the team to move Draisaitl to center his own line. He could also end up on the 3rd line, playing similar minutes to what he has now, and give the team a legitimate scoring threat on three lines. I think there are going to be a lot of teams asking about Vanek over the next 21 days.
Vanek’s 2.99 Points per 60 minutes are the 6th highest among NHL forwards this year (min 200 minutes 5v5). He’s 4th among Red Wings players in CF% with 50.3%. Take these two things along with his history of scoring as a huge endorsement. This player could be the best rental on the market. As a right hand shot, he could be a perfect fit on the Oilers who are looking for a RW with his qualities.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are sitting 10th of the 10 teams fighting for the wildcard in the East. They are one of the teams few expected to be in this position. The big pending UFA players are Bishop and Boyle. The Oilers don’t need a starting goalie. That leaves Boyle. Brian Boyle – C – 32 – $2,000,000
Brian Boyle is a 6’6…, 244 pound center who really scratches the itch that Chiarelli and the Oilers have for size. The good news is that he looks like a legit option at 3C and someone the team would be happy to add for the playoff push. He’s played almost 600 regular season NHL games plus another 100 playoff games.
Boyle is playing 13:48 per game and has a faceoff percentage of 52.8 this season. He’s picked up 48GP, 12-7-19 with the Lightning. He’s 4th among Lightning forwards with 53.4% CF and 6th in 5v5 Points per 60 with 1.51 P/60. His combination of size, experience, faceoff prowess, and offensive contributions make him a solid possible addition.
If the Oilers went after Boyle it would either push Caggiula to the AHL or to his natural left wing position. Edmonton has groomed Caggiula to be a Center since the summer development camp, but he was a winger in college and his speed may be best used on the wing.
Those are the top players from the 3 worst teams in the East who might have a fit on the Oilers. My top picks from this group are probably Vanek, Franson, and Boyle. Edmonton has picks, Davidson, and a glut of AHL defenders to throw at teams who are selling. Are any of these players future Oilers? We wait to see.
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