We are only two weeks away from the start of the pre-season, and that means it's time for your favorite hockey writers to return from vacation and publish 10000 articles that make predictions.
It's fun, everyone likes to read them and don't get the idea that I am knocking this practice. I am just pointing out what is going to happen. There will be a lot of predictions.
Once the predictions are in, there will be somewhat of a consensus on who is good and who is bad and who is a favorite etc.
Unless I'm way off, the Leafs, Predators, Lightning, Penguins, Bruins, Blues and the Jets will be the heavy favorites.
No one is going to respect the Oilers, who will be dominant.
Ottawa, Vancouver, Detroit, Chicago. Arizona and Sabres will get a lot of love for the basement.
Those are my predictions of the predictions.
But the reason I wanted to write this was that while predictions are fun, they get really influenced by group think and by people wanting to look a certain way.
For instance, the formula for most people will be to go with one "wild" pick per conference while otherwise predicting that last year's standings will then basically repeat. It's very important that your picks don't make it look like you're trolling.
This is the smart play for anyone doing this, because there is no reward for being right, but if you are too crazy you risk your credibility. There is literally no incentive for anyone to do anything but not be seen as trolling their audience (which isn't just a problem with predictions, but we don't have all day here...).
This tends to make it seem like it's beyond crazy to veer from the pack, which is weird because I would guess (my hypothesis) that there is more variation in the real life standings than the aggregated standings from hockey writer's predictions.
Me though, I just take wild guesses based on the fact that the NHL is pretty random due to 25 of the teams being roughly equal.
The funniest is when I get fan mail that suggests I am picking whacky teams so on the odd chance they come through, I can say I told you so. I would like that, unfortunately I learned from the three times I was actually right about something that no one cares if you are right.
I usually get my picks off of famed psychic Miss Cleo because predictions from me are useless if you're gauging the success of such an article on how many guesses I am right about. I know its a losing proposition, so I try to just guess what I think will happen. I don't approach it like I've got to get these right!
First, why would anyone care what my specific picks were when there are literally thousands of predictions out there? Two, the NHL is beset by parity, injuries can ruin a team at any time and goalies, while unpredictable, are responsible for a disproportionate amount of the results.
It's literally the reason why almost no one can make a long term profit on sports gambling.
But even if predictions themselves don't matter, the actual articles do serve a purpose: they prime us up for hockey season. They get us thinking about who's good and who's not and they set the stage for upsets and other fun narratives.
Even though it's probably not that much of a long-shot that Vancouver could compete for a playoff spot, if everyone says they have no chance, it's going to be more fun if they do it.
So even though the guesses don't really matter, these kinds of articles are not only fun, but they are useful.
AND WITH THAT IN MIND:
the guy that brought you the pretensions of an ex NHL coach and the qualifications of having a mom with a basement and owning a laptop brings you his super hot predictions of 2018. These are dripping with the juices of thousands of hours of research and dedication to craft.
Here we go:
1. The Detroit Red Wings will be an incomprehensible mess. They will ramble around for hours without making a point before finishing 20 points behind the rest of the league.
2. The St Louis Blues will not live up to the hype because they refuse to understand that Jake Allen is the e-cig/vape of NHL goalies. No matter what people say, he's never going to be cool. He's basically the tan pants and Apple Watch of the NHL.
Jake Allen will never cost me another hockey pool because I will never draft his ass again. He is to the NHL what the guy who wears boat shoes while listening to Maroon 5 in his convertible is to me in my jean jacket driving my mom's Lasabre.
My prediction is that despite their roster they will miss the playoffs unless they get a goalie.
3. Arizona Coyotes make the Playoffs. You know it's going to happen one of these years.
(but seriously I honestly legit believe for realz they got a good team)
4. Oilers baby. If Talbot is halfway decent they are a contender. I don't think people in general understand that Klefbom is capable of being one of the better defenseman in the league, and if that happens, a McDavid/Draisaitl combo is unstoppable.
Fact Check: Draisaitl is 22, McDavid is 21. As hard as this is to believe, they will get better this year.
Also people say they have no wingers, but Puljarvi is a playa, and Yamamota is also going to be good.
I predict they win the Cup. They're going to be the best team in hockey. They should definitely have a new coach and GM first, but what can you do?
5. If you 're still reading, my fifth prediction is that Auston Matthews scores 65 goals. He scored a 50 pace last year almost without any PP success. He's also going to have more room because otherwise Tavares will destroy other teams.
That's it! Hope you enjoyed.
Bonus predictions: Columbus is among the best teams in the NHL while the Canucks almost make the playoffs.