The Draft and the main flurry of moves from Free Agency have come and gone and as the dust has settled we have a much better idea at where teams in the league are at in terms of their overall makeup.
Plenty can still happen between now and the start of the season but it's a Monday in July so just for fun let's take a look at where I think each team in the Pacific is at, why I think that, and what may change between now and the start of the season.
Let's go in reverse order starting with...
8) San Jose Sharks
San Jose is firmly entrenched in the "it's going to get worse before it gets better" stage of the rebuild. They have 23 million dollars locked up in Hertl, Couture, and Vlasic for at least the next three seasons with the latter two very much on the decline. The remaining vet core is a list of "fine if unspectacular" names like Duclair, Lindblom, Labanc, and Barbanov, all of whom are on expiring contracts and will all be shopped at the deadline.
There are exciting young players in the mix here. Sharks fans are likely going to see William Eklund for the season and perhaps brand new draft pick Will Smith. Other names like Shakir Mukhamadullin on defense and Thomas Bordeleau up front could also make appearances. There is some legitimate talent here but it isn't fair to expect this group to carry the team's success on their shoulders yet.
The one name we haven't mentioned yet is Erik Karlsson who should be traded at the height of his value after winning a Norris but the Sharks seem to be unwilling to retain the space that would make teams actually give up real assets to acquire him. Those assets will certainly help the Sharks but again this is a team trying to rebuild and not looking at this season with any playoff aspirations.
7) Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim is the weirdest team to predict as of this moment. The team currently has over 29 million in cap space though do have a few key free agents in Terry, Zegras, and Drysdale to sign. They are a step above the Sharks in their main young prospects are actively playing in the NHL and will continue to take steps forward and the addition of Leo Carlsson will only add to that.
However there are still some massive concerns with the existing roster. John Gibson has demanded a trade, going as far as to say he will never play another game for the Ducks. The defense is also incomplete with Fowler, Hagg, Gudas, and White the only signed players. Again there are interesting prospects on the blueline like Zellweger but asking a 19 year old to step in and be a top 4 defender is not a great policy.
Anaheim has the space to make some moves and is better than the Sharks but they still look like a team more likely to pick top 5 than make the playoffs.
6)Vancouver Canucks
No team seems to be better at spending cap space without actually improving than the Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks were able to create some cap space for themselves by buying out Oliver Ekman-Larsson. They then proceeded to spend that cap space by signing Carson Soucy, Matt Irwin, Teddy Blueger, and Ian Cole; a collection of bottom six forwards and third pairing defensemen.
It is hard to look at this roster and see how the Canucks have any hope of passing any of the teams above them on this list (with the exception of one). Vancouver is also without Bo Horvat and the JT Miller contract that looks like it will continue to burden this roster for the next decade.
Some excellent pieces exist on the roster. Elias Pettersson is an absolute star in this league. Kuzmenko is a fun player to watch (though I expect his SH% to drop dramatically) and Quinn Hughes is an offensive dynamo (who still can't defend). The biggest question mark is whether or not Demko can bounce back from a rough season of injuries and inconsistencies. He has the ability on his own to turn this team from a middling mess into a darkhorse playoff contender all on his own.
5) Calgary Flames
I said that the Canucks would be hard pressed to pass any team above them... the Calgary Flames might be the easiest one that they can. The Ducks and the Flames are the hardest teams to predict in the standings but for different reasons. Anaheim has the cap space to make some adds or trades and potentially give themselves a bump. The Flames meanwhile are teetering on the edge of a rebuild. That all may rest on Elias Lindholm.
The Flames have reportedly offered Lindholm a massive contract extension with some believing it is over 9 million a year. That is a nice sum and yet the #1 centre for the Flames has not accepted it. If Lindholm does not want to sign in Calgary, new GM Craig Conroy will be in a position where he has no choice but to deal him. It's unlikely that Lindholm is being traded for another #1 centre meaning the Flames would suddenly be a far worse team than they are today.
Ask most Flames fans and they will tell you a rebuild is preferred at this point instead of this continuous attempt to stay afloat on the precipice of a playoff spot. I applaud former GM Brad Treliving for his attempt to rebound with Kadri and Huberdeau but now it's looking like that only slightly delayed the inevitable.
Whether the Flames find a way to kick the can down another off-season or if they accept they need to go back to basics with the core will be a story to follow for the rest of the off-season. This is a team that could finish anywhere from 7th to maybe 4th in the division.
4) LA Kings
I don't love the moves that LA made this off-season and as of today I think they are worse than they were last season. Dubois was the big signing for the team but it cost three great middle six depth options in Vilardi, Iafallo, and Kupari; the former two being thorns in the Oilers side in the last playoff round. All of that for a player that has a career high 63 points and has demanded trades out of two different organizations.
The Dubois move made sense in that the Kings were looking for a long term replacement for Kopitar until the team announced they had extended their captain for another two seasons at 7 million.
On the young up and comer side you are hoping to see more out of Quinton Byfield, Arthur Kaliyev and likely Alex Turcotte. If these young forwards can step up and replace the lost production from Iafallo and Vilardi than the Kings will be a more potent team.
The thing I really don't like about the Kings is their goaltending situation. Phoenix Copley stepped up for a time with Quick's struggles but there was a reason why LA brought in Korpisalo. With Korpisalo and Quick now gone I don't know how anyone can look at Cam Talbot and David Rittich as the answer in net.
3) Seattle Kraken
I was one of the few people who thought Seattle was going to make some noise last season. They far surpassed my own expectations but now it's hard to look at the depth that this roster has and not expect them to continue to improve.
Let's get one thing out of the way to start; the Kraken are absolutely going to score fewer goals this season as the SH% across the board for that team are unsustainable and simply not going to happen this year. That is just a fact. That being said this is still a team with a plethora of scoring forwards with Eberle, Schwartz, Bjorkstrand, Gourde, Wennberg, McCann, Beniers, and Burakovsky as well as likely Shane Wright added to the mix.
Philip Grubauer was amazing for Seattle through the playoffs and if he plays more like that than what he did in the regular season than the Kraken could actually compete for top spot in the Pacific Division. Daccord is a fine backup and the jury is still out on what to expect from Chris Driedger and his status.
The big weakness remains strong puck moving options on the blueline. Vince Dunn is the best at this for Seattle and Schultz is fine in a third pairing role but after that there is alot of size and not enough strong first passes out from the blueline. A deadline deal or two could quickly change this but regardless Seattle is going to be dangerous once again.
2) Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers finished second in the Division last season and are coming back with essentially the exact same roster so it's hard to pick them to not finish in a similar spot this season. The biggest "upgrade" the roster has this time around is having Mattias Ekholm around for a whole season as opposed to the final couple of months.
McDavid and Draisaitl will continue to run the show up front with an excellent supporting cast in RNH, Hyman, Kane and now Connor Brown as well. I don't expect RNH to put up another 100 point season but a healthy Evander Kane will hopefully balance that part out.
The blueline is set for the most part and overall looks pretty good. Nurse, Bouchard, and Ekholm make up an above average top 4 group with any of the mentioned players being able to play top pairing minutes. The question mark comes in that final spot. Cody Ceci struggled heavily in that role last season and the only other option is a very untested Philip Broberg. Kulak and Desharnais round out a good third pairing but this team is one injury away on the blueline of being in some trouble.
The biggest question mark is the goaltending once again. Jack Campbell had a brutal season and was often second guessing him and just clearly not able to handle things between the pipes. Stuart Skinner was astounding through the regular season but finally ran out of gas in the playoffs.
The Oilers are hoping that having a full season under his belt will only help Skinner improve and that Campbell can reset in the off-season and return to being a 0.910 or better netminder but there is risk in both of these players. Edmonton is good enough to handle things if one of these players struggle. If it's both of them struggling than they are going to be in trouble.
1) Vegas Golden Knights
As of today I have to give the edge to Vegas for the top spot in the Division. The Stanley Cup Champions are returning with most of the roster that earned them that reward. While Edmonton and Vegas compare well across the board the Golden Knights have the edge on their blueline and a more proven goaltending situation.
There isn't much to dissect here, this is a very well built roster. They may have overpaid Ivan Barbashev but it's also hard to deny the chemistry he discovered with Eichel in the post season. Adin Hill may not be a 5 million dollar goalie but people forget that for much of the season Logan Thompson who will be healthy was the starter.
The race for the top spot will be tight between the Oilers and Golden Knights I believe but right now Vegas is still #1.
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What do you think of my predictions? Where do you rank all the Pacific Division teams? Leave your own predictions in the standings.