We've looked at the defence for Chicago. They scored 40 goals last year and I predicted that they score the exact same amount next year.
Overall, the Blackhawks scored 267 goals as a team. That means 14.9% of tallies came from the backend with 85.1% coming from the forwards.
Of those 267 overall goals, 44.9% came from Kane (44), DeBrincat (41) and Toews (35). Those 3 accounted for 120 goals which is good for 52.8% of goals out of the forward group.
While it's amazing that the Hawks top 3 forwards found the back of the twine so many times, it's not the best indication of depth. I anticipate that the Hawks will have their scoring spread out a little more next year.
Before I get into that, let's recap how all of the goals shook out: ACTUAL GOALS 2018-19:
Kane – 44 DeBrincat – 41 Toews – 35 Saad – 23 Strome – 17 Anisimov – 15 Kahun – 13 Perlini – 12 Caggiula – 5 Kunitz – 5 Kampf – 4 Kruger – 4 Fortin – 3 Hayden – 3 Schmaltz – 2 Martinsen – 1 Sikura, L. Johnson, Nilsson – 0 TOTAL FORWARD GOALS = 227
This is in line on how the forward group performed in 2017-18 in relation to the rest of the team; the forward group factored in on 86% of the goals 2 years ago with 85.1% last year.
How were my predictions before the 2018-19 season last year? I have no shame, let's have a look: 2018-19 Predictions:
Patrick Kane – 35 Brandon Saad – 29 Nick Schmaltz – 27 Alex Debrincat – 25 Jonathan Toews – 24 Artem Anisimov – 18 Dylan Sikura – 13 Hayden – 9 Kunitz – 7 Kahun – 6 Ejdsell – 4 Highmore – 3 Martinsen – 3 Kruger – 2 Kampf – 2 Johnson – 2 Fortin – 1 Nilsson – 1 Schroeder – 1 PREDICTED FORWARD GOALS = 212
Where did I go wrong?
Well, I thought DeBrincat would have a more "modest year"… he did not. The Cat lit it up for 41 goals vs. the 25 I predicted.
Nick Schmaltz was a disappointment with only 2 goals in 23 games, however, his "replacement", Dylan Strome entered the scene with 17 goals in Chicago.
Toews definitely exceed expectations.
Sikura did not score a goal let alone hit the 13 goals I predicted.
Overall though, I predicted 212 which was only 15 goals off of the 227 they actually scored… so, not terrible.
Moving on to the fun part, the 2019-20 predictions. Let's first look at the additions and subtractions – in brackets are the goal totals from last year for each player:
OUT:
Anisimov (15) Kahun (13) Kunitz (5) Kruger (4) Hayden (3) Schmaltz (2) Martinsen (1)
TOTAL = 43
IN:
Shaw (19) Z. Smith (9) Carpenter (5) Nylander (2)
TOTAL = 35
Only an 8 goal difference and that's without the potential of Kirby Dach, Dominik Kubalik, Anton Wedin,
Predictions 2019-20:
Kane – 41 DeBrincat – 35 Toews – 29 Strome – 21 Saad – 19 Shaw – 15 Kubalik – 13 Perlini – 11 Dach – 11 Caggiula – 7 Nylander – 6 Sikura – 6 Z. Smith – 5 Kampf – 5 Carpenter – 4 Wedin – 1 Quenneville – 1
TOTAL PREDICTED GOALS = 230 What a great exercise to layout predictions player-by-player.
I originally had the Hawks taking a small step back in terms of GF and making a big improvement in the GA category.
While I still believe the Hawks will have a better GAA per game (that blog will be next), I couldn't find any rationale where this forward group scores less than last year.
The overall predicted breakdown is:
Forwards = 230 Defence = 40 TOTAL = 270
It seems like a bit of a cop-out to predict almost the EXACT same Goals For category, it wasn't on purpose.
Keep in mind that I'm not accounting for injuries, which we all know will occur to a certain degree.
Also, keep in mind, I'm not a psychic, just a blogger having some fun. Here's some rationale on my predictions above:
I believe all of Kane, DeBrincat and Toews will have minor decreases as I believe Colliton's reign won't allow for so much run-and-gun of a style.
In Saad, I have him at 19 goals which is due to the fact the I predict he will spend most of his season on the 3rd line.
Shaw goes from 19 to 15 goals as I am thinking he will bounce up-and-down the lines vs. him playing a majority of his time with Drouin and Domi in MTL last year.
Kubalik replaces Kahun's goals in this prediction.
I also have the bold prediction that Dach will make the team as the 3rd line C and will be close to Kotkaniemi numbers last year an 18-year old who had 11 goals (34 points) in 79 games.
You will also see Nylander and Sikura chipping in with 6 goals each in part-time roles next year.
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What do you think? Am I crazy?
Talk to me.
See ya out there!
JL
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