maple leafs

Post-season picture beginning to come into focus; Leafs vs. Lightning

Apr 4, 2022 • 12:31 pm

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have a difficult test facing their two Florida-based foes on consecutive nights, starting with the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena on Monday. The Leafs are tied with two-time Stanley Cup winners for second place in the Atlantic Division with 93 points and a slim two-point lead over Boston, as the three clubs jockey for position in the final stretch in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

While nothing is locked in place with over three weeks and 14 games left, the picture is becoming clearer of potentially who the Leafs could face in the first round. The Washington Capitals appear to be a lock for the second wildcard spot, trailing the Bruins by seven points and Toronto/Tampa Bay by nine.

The Panthers clinched a post-season berth on Saturday and have a four-point lead over Carolina in the race for top spot in the East, which would mean a first-round matchup with the Panthers. The race in the Metro is still relatively close, with the Hurricanes leading the NY Rangers by four points and Pittsburgh by six, but Carolina does have a game in hand and the inside track on the division title.

Based on where the Leafs are situated currently, the odds are slim that they will play Florida in the first-round since that would entail the Panthers getting caught by Carolina and Toronto falling to the first wildcard. The list of opponents is most likely down to three; the Lightning, Hurricanes, and Bruins, all of which pose different problems.

Tampa has an ample supply of championship pedigree and once again loaded up for another Cup run with the additions of Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul prior to the deadline and represent the most difficult potential matchup, as they can match Toronto’s offensive output and are better on the blueline and between the pipes.

Carolina is also deep and gifted offensively and to this point are first in the NHL in goals allowed (164), with a solid blueline and Frederik Andersen in goal, but there continue to be questions of whether the former Leaf can shake off his reputation for not showing up in the playoffs.

When it comes to the playoffs, Boston is Toronto’s albatross, with names like Bergeron, Marchand, and Pastrnak and the memory of three seven-game first-round losses sending Leafs fans into fits of PTSD. The Bruins do not have the benefit of the same depth without David Krejci, Zdeno Chara, and Tuukka Rask, and will likely be relying on a rookie goalie in Jeremy Swayman. While still an excellent club, Boston’s main advantage over Toronto is psychological.

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Head coach Sheldon Keefe indicated that William Nylander will be a game-time decision after missing practice on Sunday with a non-COVID illness. Defenseman Jake Muzzin will not play on Monday but will likely return to the lineup on Tuesday against the Panthers.

Jack Campbell will make his second straight start after a 29-save victory over Philadelphia on Saturday, with Erik Kallgren expected to make the start in the second of back-to-back games in Sunrise on Tuesday. *******