This has been a rotten week for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. After clinching a Calder Cup playoff spot last weekend, the Phantoms entered the final week of the 2022-23 AHL regular season in the driver's seat to finish third in the Atlantic Division. Doing so would have ensured the Phantoms of home-ice advantage in the best-of-three first round of the playoffs.
A third-place finish also would have, assuming Lehigh Valley wins their first-round series, enabled the Phantoms to avoid a divisional semifinal meeting with whichever team (Hershey Bears or Providence Bruins) wins the division. The Phantom won only three of 14 games against Hershey during the regular season whereas they went 4-2 against Providence.
Unfortunately, the Phantoms finished off the regular season by going 0-3-0 in the final week. Even more concerning: the defense and goaltending sprung a leak as the Phantoms yielded a combined 17 goals (two were empty-net goals) in the three games. Goalie Sam Ersson was far from the lone culprit because there were some egregious breakdowns in front of him or up-ice. But Ersson wasn't blameless, either. After he'd been so consistently good all season, there were several goals over the final three games that the young Swedish goalie would have liked to have back. Due to the sheer volume of goals allowed in the final three games, Ersson's final GAA ballooned to 2.84 and his final save percentage decreased to an even .900 on the season.
On Wednesday, Ian Laperriere's club suffered a 6-4 road loss to a non-playoff team, the Bridgeport Islanders. On Friday, in a must-win head-to-head matchup on home ice against the Charlotte Checkers, the Phantom went down to a 5-2 defeat. On Saturday in Hershey, Lehigh Valley was defeated in a 6-4 game.
As a result, within the span of a week, the Phantoms dropped first third place in the Atlantic to finish in sixth place (the bottom playoff position). What this immediately means is that the Phantoms will be the road team in the first round of the playoffs.
It has yet to be determined whom Lehigh Valley will play in the first round: the Charlotte Checkers or the Springfield Thunderbirds.
Charlotte, like the Phantoms, has now completed its regular season schedule. The club is currently in third place. Fourth-place Springfield is in action today, playing a road game against Providence that will determine the final first-place through fourth-place standings and determine the Phantoms opponents both in the first round and, if they make it that far, the second round of the playoffs.
If Providence wins on Sunday (whether in regulation, overtime or via shootout), the P-Bruins will leapfrog Hershey and win the Atlantic Division. In this scenario, the Phantoms will open the playoffs as the road team in a best-of-three against Charlotte. Lehigh Valley even split an eight-game regular season series (four wins, four losses) against the Checkers this season. Providence would the Phantoms' opponent in the best-of-five second-round if the Phantoms were to defeat Charlotte.
If Springfield beats Providence on Sunday (by any means), the Thunderbirds will edge out Charlotte for third place via tiebreaker. Hershey will win the Atlantic Division either outright (a regulation loss by Providence) or via tiebreaker (if Springfield prevails in OT or via shootout). In this scenario, the Phantoms would play Springfield in the first round and then, should Lehigh Valley prevail, run into Hershey in the second round. The Phantoms were 3-1-0 against Springfield this season.
No matter which team(s) the Phantoms play in the first/second rounds, they will need to play much better hockey than they have over the past week in order to give themselves a fighting chance for advancement.
Side note: On PhiladelphiaFlyers.com, there's an in-depth look at the prominent roles that the Phantoms' youngest players have taken in this season's successful push to return to the playoffs: Ersson, Tyson Foerster, Elliot Desnoyers, Bobby Brink, Olle Lycksell, Ronnie Attard, Egor Zamula, Adam Ginning and late-season addition Emil Andrae. To read more, click here.
Regardless of what happens in the playoffs, the 2022-23 season has been a positive one from a developmental standpoint at the AHL level. That said, the way this past week has gone has been a downer for most everyone on Lehigh Valley. Once the best-of-three series is played against Charlotte or Springfield, the Phantoms will have a chance to quickly erase the memory of the final week of the regular season. If not, the season will go down as one that was a step forward on the whole but with a major stumble at the finish line.