With training camps set to open league-wide in just a few weeks, and most teams finished with their off-season shopping, we can start to project how things will play out in 2018-19.
@Manny_Hockey's model, which had the Stanley Cup-winning Washington Capitals ranked No. 1 heading into last season, is cautiously optimistic about the Calgary Flames.
The model has the Flames – who finished 11th in the West and 20th in the league last season– slotted 8th in the West and, funny enough, tied with Carolina and a couple others for 16th overall.
NHL regular season team points projections for 2018-2019 (result of 10,000 simulations): pic.twitter.com/IgjUaa3nB8
— Emmanuel Perry (@manny_hockey) August 22, 2018
I think the model's projections are very fair.
Though I like Calgary's star power, and forward depth, there are too many question marks (Can T.J. Brodie and Travis Hamonic have bounce-back years? Will Mike Smith stay healthy? Will they get *any* value from the backup position? Etc, etc.) to rank them much higher.
They should seriously contend for a playoff spot in a weak Pacific Division. Perhaps they're even capable of making some noise come April if they get a favorable draw.
I wouldn't expect them to challenge Winnipeg, Nashville, or the Western Conference powerhouses, though. I think they're a couple tiers below those teams and the model seems to agree.