When you’re struggling to earn victories one of the best remedies the last couple of seasons has been for your team’s game against the Buffalo Sabres to arrive. To this point in 2017-18 that should still hold true. Jason Botterill’s first year in Buffalo was never going to solve all the issues that have plagued the franchise from Tim Murray’s time with the time. I did think they would be better than they are, but they aren’t.
The Sabres are a bottom five team in expected goals (45.01%) and a bottom ten team in possession (48.1%). Not great, obviously. Although, the Penguins aren’t without their own flaws. They are currently the worst team in the NHL in save percentage at even-strenth (.894). They are the only team sub .900. What makes matters worse is that the Penguins are also one of the worst shot suppression teams in the league. They give up a lot of shots and the goalies are doing worse than anybody else in stopping them. Pittsburgh remains a talented offensive team, but even with the high-end talent that they have it is too much to overcome lately.
The goaltending will probably get better for the Penguins, but I don’t see any drastic changes in their overall team numbers unless significant roster moves are made. This is not a team built for a championship as it currently stands. The good news is that the trade deadline is far off. There is time to make adjustments. Pittsburgh is at the 19 game mark and we are approaching the sample size that says “what you see is what you get…. What we’re getting is mediocre. It would take a near lethal overdose of PDO for things to shake out in the Penguins favor over a four round playoff year. Right now they are the lowest in the league. Their PDO dealer has stepped on the product like ten times. That’s life in the NHL when you are addicted to PDO and don’t have the puck possession to back it up. Puck possession doesn’t hide everything, but it can get you through dry spells. When you have possession and a high PDO you become unbeatable (2015-16). When you don’t have possession and you are the worst in the league with your percentages you have the 2017-18 Penguins.
It's on a platter tonight. You have a Buffalo team coming into your arena after a few days off. Pittsburgh is 5-0-1 at home this year. Process matters over the long haul. You’ll get the results you want more time than not when the process is good. Right now the Penguins need results despite the flawed process. The division is too competitive not to.
Thanks for reading!