A couple Calgary Flames notes as we (hopefully) inch closer to the 2021 season:
1) ’ve been pretty critical of the Chris Tanev signing since the day it was made. On top of investing pretty significant money and term into a declining asset on the back-9 of his career, the Flames are paying for a skillset that doesn’t necessarily exist anymore. Tanev’s biggest supporters would be the first to admit he isn’t going to give you much offensively. Much – check that, all – of his value supposedly comes from his defensive play. Unfortunately, that doesn’t live up to the perception.
Tanev was regarded as the stabilizing force on Vancouver’s backend last year. That doesn’t exactly check out, though. He was actually a big part of the problem. Hear me out.
From January 1st onward, Vancouver allowed 6.31 chances per 60 MORE with Tanev on the ice. Travis Hamonic, Jack Johnson, and and Justin Faulk were the only regulars to post worse differentials during that period of time. Oh, and here’s the kicker with Tanev. He did this while starting ~51% of his shifts in the offensive zone. It’s not as if he was fed to the wolves with DZ start after DZ start and put in situations where he’d absorb chances. He was just flat-out bad.
Now, he’s going to be attached at the hip of Mark Giordano or Noah Hanifin in a top-4 role. That means he neuters Giordano, so to speak, and limits the value of the top pairing. Or he plays with Hanifin and makes up what would surely be the most overpaid, and overrated, 2nd pairing in the league. Not ideal.
2) While the Flames aren’t exactly the 2003 New Jersey Devils, I think Jacob Markstrom is really going to benefit from a more structured environment in Calgary.
Of the 34 most utilized goaltenders in the NHL last year, only two faced more Expected Goals per 60 than Markstrom. Two. Just six faced more high-danger shots per 60 minutes. He had one of the more difficult workloads in the NHL and he still posted very good numbers across the board.
Using the same criteria as mentioned previously, David Rittich faced the 13th highest xG/60 output and sat 23rd in HD shots against/60. It was much more goalie friendly in Calgary than Vancouver.
I do think replacing T.J. Brodie with Tanev is a step back, however, the Flames stand to benefit from more minutes going to Rasmus Andersson. The potential emergence of Juuso Valimaki, who is absolutely tearing it up in Finland with 19 points in 19 games, should bolster the back-end as well.
I don’t love the length of the Markstrom deal, but I am excited about what a goaltender of his talent level can do behind a better defensive team.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com Recent posts: