Oliver Bjorkstrand is one of the most skilled players in the Blue Jackets system. Ever since he was drafted in 2013, he has been at or near the top of the team prospect lists. After dominating the WHL, and successfully transitioning to the AHL, many were wondering when he was going to get a chance in the NHL and if he could make that jump and be an impact player in Columbus. If last season was any indication he’s already an impact player and will show that in the 2017-18 season.
Bjorkstrand only played 26 games last season, and has played just 38 in his career, but what he's done in those games has been nothing short of remarkable. He put up 13 points in 26 games this past season and has 21 points for his career. If Bjorkstrand is able to maintain that scoring pace over a full season, you’re looking at a 45-50 point winger, which is very good, but there is potential for so much more. Dom Luszczyszyn wrote a great article this summer for the Athletic looking at Bjorkstrand and his points per 60 at 5 on 5. Bjorkstrand when he’s been in the line-up he's been in more of a third line role with minimal power play time (though this did start to change by the end of last season). The lack of opportunities has kept his raw point totals down. At 5 on 5 Bjorkstand has played 477 minutes in his career, his points per 60 in those minutes is 2.64, and as Dom notes in his piece that puts Bjorkstrand third in the NHL over the last two seasons, sandwiched between Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby.
That’s not saying that with more ice-time Bjorkstrand is going to score like McDavid or Crosby, because he’s not. What it is saying is that Bjorkstrand play has warranted more ice-time. He should be getting a long look in the top six this season. His points per 60 is going to drop, but as Dom notes “he’s got a lot of room for error below to still be scoring at a first-line rate, even with some expected regression.…
Here’s the thing though all of the underlying numbers support what Bjorkstrand has done. This isn’t some flash in the pan shooting percentage hot streak; Bjorkstrand has done all the things that suggest a big breakout is coming.
First off his Corsi at 5 on 5 last season was 54.68%, the highest on the team. He also had a goals for percentage of 60.71%, fourth on the team. When Bjorkstrand was on the ice, the Jackets were controlling the puck and putting it in the back of the net. Looking at Bjorkstrand as a player, he is someone that should be a high possession player and carry a high goals for percentage. He is a good skater with good hands and a wicked shot.
.@OBjorkstrand's first #CBJ goal of the season! 🔠pic.twitter.com/cCAPhbsBjv
— ColumbusBlueJackets (@BlueJacketsNHL) February 16, 2017
7 points in 10 games for Oliver Bjorkstrand - WHAT a deadline move! 😬#CBJ pic.twitter.com/j5Xfjxug09
— ColumbusBlueJackets (@BlueJacketsNHL) March 8, 2017
Looking at the goals Bjorkstrand scored last season many of them are just like that, he gets himself into dangerous areas of the ice and with his shot he doesn’t need much space to score. He averaged 9.40 scoring chances and 4.22 high danger scoring chances per 60 last season, per Natural Stat Trick ranking him second and fifth on the team respectively.
His possession stats should remain high because he is a strong player with the puck on his stick. Thanks to the tremendous work done by Corey Sznajder we have a whole database of micro-stats. Thanks to his work we able to get further information and insight into players and why they have success or failures. I would highly recommend checking out his work and supporting him if you can, for more information check out his Twitter linked above.
In the case of Bjorkstrand these stats show how dominate he was and why he will continue to have success in the future. Take a look at the following graph, plotting Carry-In % vs Corsi.
All data is at 5 on 5 unless otherwise noted.
Bjorkstrand as you can see, is in the top right of both these graphs, showing he has a very high Corsi and a very high carry-in percentage and pass percentage. He was one of the best Jackets at getting the puck successfully into the zone with possession last season, rivalled by only Brandon Saad and Alexander Wennberg. Wennberg and Saad as we know were two of the best offensive players on the Jackets last season finishing second and third in team scoring with 59 and 53 points respectively. For those curious Artemi Panarin also does very well here, he would be the leader on the Jackets in both carry-in% and pass%.
Bjorkstrand should continue to have success with this as this is something he has done his whole hockey career. He’s gotten stronger but he is always going to be a smaller, slender player. He doesn’t have the size or strength to be dumping the puck it and continually battling to get it back. When he gets the puck he does not give it up, he gets in the zone and gets right down to work creating chances.
Another thing that Corey tracked was shots and shot assists (passes that lead to shots). Bjorkstrand once again was right near the top of the team. His contributions/60 (a combination of his shots and shot assists) was 31.11, third on the team behind Saad and Sam Gagner. His primary contributions/60 was at 24.0, fourth on the team behind Saad, Cam Atkinson and Gagner. When Bjokrstrand is on the ice the offense rolls through him. He makes plays happen. He’s an incredibly smart player and finds the soft spots in the defence whether that’s with a pass or shot.
Bjorkstrand is a wizard in the offensive zone, but an underrated part of his game is how he plays in his own zone. Many of the skills that make him effective in the offensive zone help him in the defensive zone. Bjorkstrand rarely has long shifts where he is hemmed in his own end. He does well at getting the puck out of the zone and transitioning the play back to offense. He had an exit percentage of 81.7%, which means that when Bjorkstrand had the puck in the defensive zone he got the puck out of the zone 81.7% of the time, which was middle of the pack for the team. Where Bjorkstrand had the most success was on possession exits. Bjorkstrand was able to clear the zone with possession of the puck 51.6% of the time. That was third on the team behind Wennberg and Saad (noticing a trend here). Again this is a testament to his skating and how good he is with the puck. When the puck is on his stick regardless of where he is on the ice, he makes smart decisions that help the team.
When you combine all these things together, the skills, the numbers, the micro stats, you can see what’s made Bjorkstrand so successful in the NHL. He only played 26 games last season but his impact was felt. He was a big boost to the Jackets down the stretch with his offensive display and goal scoring. Entering this season he has a spot in the top six, and more ice time headed his way. If last season was any indication a breakout is coming…are you ready for it?
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