Today the Penguins take on the opponent that came closest to knocking them out of the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season. It was the Tampa Bay Lightning who forced a decisive winner take all Game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals. Bryan Rust was the hero with two goals and Matt Murray only allowed a single goal. The victory propelled the Penguins to the Stanley Cup Final where the team won their fourth overall Stanley Cup.
Heading into the 2016-17 season expectations for both the Penguins and Lightning were that they would once again compete for the conference title along with Washington. So far this year the Lightning seem to have lost their zap. They are playing below their standard from last season in multiple categories.
The Score-Adjusted Fenwick stats have taken a drop
They were decent enough last year. This season has them below the 50% threshold. Not exactly where you want to be if you have aspirations of being a Stanley Cup contender.
They aren't generating shot volume at the level that they once were
Nor are they defending it as well
To make up for these changes they could lean on goaltending, but that has dropped off significantly as well
Tampa Bay was unfortunate when they lost Steven Stamkos with his meniscus tear. Stamkos was playing excellent and among the leading goal scorers in the league. Stamkos hasn't played since November 15th and had nine goals and 20 points at that time which was one off the league lead. His teammate Nikita Kucherov was tied for the league lead at the time. The team hasn't been able to replace that production and as a result they have not overcome the combination of poor possession and average goaltending.
The Lightning do have a card they could play when they so choose. They have the ability to trade Ben Bishop for some help. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the future of the Tampa Bay net and Ben Bishop is probably the most attractive goaltending trade target on the market. The reason is that Bishop is a UFA after the season and a team looking for short term help would not have to make a longer term commitment like they would with a Marc-Andre Fleury type of trade. Currently Vasilevskiy has a .926 EVSV% which is plenty good enough for a solid team to win. Tampa needs to figure out how to become a solid team again and perhaps the potential asset(s) they get for Bishop can help on that front while they wait for a Stamkos return. They should explore that opportunity sooner than later because there isn't a drop off in production from Vasilevskiy (.926) to Bishop (.917) this year.
Pittsburgh will go back to Matt Murray for tonight's game. He was the first goaltender off the ice.
The Penguins will also keep the same forwards in the lineup as Eric Fehr was one of the last forwards off the ice at the morning skate.
Pittsburgh forwards are getting in close with the opportunities
Avg shot distance for forwards.
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) December 9, 2016
PIT, MTL, TOR, and STL get in tightest.
FLA and LA's forwards firing from furthest on average. pic.twitter.com/F1KU1l1Jn7
The Penguins also lead the NHL in shot attempt volume at even-strength with 61.1 attempts per 60 minutes. Over an attempt per minute on average, not bad.
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