The rebuild. Amazing how polarizing a seven letter word is amongst the Rangers’ fan base. A concept that has been foreign for many years in New York is now front and center with little middle ground. From the discussions on this blog on the recent past, either you are all in or out without the ability to understand both sides of the equation.
I have provided my view in the past but will do so again. First, let me say I understand those who view a rebuild as an anathema. It’s not a pleasurable idea, knowing that your team is in essence saying we are punting the now for the future with no guarantee as to what that future will bring. Focusing on the here and now and utilizing assets, be it players or picks, to bolster a current roster in order to make a run for the roses is certainly a much more pleasurable idea.
But where New York was and is that would have been a waste of time. The team, as it was constructed at the time, was not really a contender. To patch some holes on the offchance that you make the playoffs and then find lightning in a bottle to make a run would have been fools’ gold. Far too often in their history, including in the early-2000s, the Rangers instead of embracing the rebuild, opted to put a fresh coat of paint on a collapsing infrastructure with disastrous results. GM Jeff Gorton and President Glen Sather could have gone in that direction last season.
New York wasn’t that far out of a playoff spot and adding a few assets might have landed a wild card spot. But those of us who really know this team and realize the gap between haves and have nots realized that doing so would have been a poor decision. Instead, Gorton and Sather with the backing of owner James Dolan issued the ‘letter’ signaling a focus on the future and intention to build long term sustainability as a contender rather than focusing solely on the here and now.
The question still remains, rebuild or retool? I don’t care which term you use. But the main part forward is the creation of an infrastructure that breeds a pipeline of players to arrive at a place where adding that elite component takes the organization to that next level. Emile Francis built that infrastructure when he took over in 1964. Neil Smith created somewhat of a pipeline and utilized assets to win in 1994. While I still don’t love some of that trades because they robbed what could have been long termed future success for the here and now, I understand why Smith made those deals based on where the organization stood at the time.
New York right now is in the early to mid stages of that rebuild. The turnaround began with the trade of Derek Stepan. While the assets brought in may not have matched what we wanted back in return, the addition of the seventh overall pick, which became Lias Andersson, signaled the changing of the guard and philosophy within the organization. That mindset shift continued following the letter, as at the trade deadline, additional future assets were acquired. The picks received, coupled with the ninth overall section, continued the uplift of what had become a moribund minor league system that in the past had been strafed by dealing first round picks to try and win now. That strategy did result in a great run, including an ECF in 2012, SCF in 2014 and ECF in 2015, but unfortunately not the Cup. If the current rebuild can end in a period of time like those four years, I think we all would view that as a success, though true success is only in a Cup win.
Personally, I hate knowing this year is likely a ‘lost’ year at least in terms of the standings. For the season to be a success, growth from the kids, evidencing what New York truly has for now and the future, is the key. If Andersson and Chytil can prove they are cornerstones for the future, that means 2018-19 was a step in the right direction. Then add in Brett Howden at some point, Ryan Lindgren later in the year and future assets possibly by dealing Mats Zucccarello and/or Kevin Hayes and the turnaround might be faster than expected. Trading Zucc or Hayes may very well depend on what we see from the kids. If the growth is faster than expected and the view is that Zucc or Hayes could be a part of that success rather than having to be dealt to drive that success, then maybe they remain. But as we have seen by who has beaten a path out of town by trade or free agency, the name on the front is way more important than the one in the back of the jersey.
If Vitali Kravtsov comes over next season and becomes the scorer New York hopes he can, the rebuild might also be accelerated. To me, the question is when does the path forward start in earnest. I would like to think it’s in free agency after this season rather than the 2019-20 campaign. As I wrote a few ago when discussing Artemi Panarin, if the rebuild is to stretch to at least 2020-21 before the turnaround is to start, that timeframe may result in a lack of interest for Panarin. But if the young players such as Chytil and Andersson at the NHL level or Kravtsov, Yegor Rekov and Igor Shestyorkin in the KHL or Howden and Lindgren in the NHL or K’Andre Miller in college or Nils Lundkvist in the SHL show the hoped for growth, then maybe that helps sway Panarin’s free agent decision. This rationale doesn’t only apply to Panarin, but to any potential free agent, especially ones that provide that elite level of talent that is likely currently lacking on the parent club and/or within the organization.
As of now, the potential list of free agents in 2019 ( https://www.nhl.com/news/2019-fantasy-hockey-ufa-preview-list/c-298503958) could include Max Pacioretty, who won’t be signed long term by Montreal, Blake Wheeler, Tyler Seguin, Joe Pavelski and Anders Lee plus others in addition to Panarin and obviously Erik Karlsson. To me, for New York to show they are a player and plan to contend, adding one of this ilk is a must and you could argue that to change the mindset of the fan base and league’s perception, signing two of those players is the requirement. If not and if the rebuild is to stretch longer than starting the path forward next year.
In line with this, will also be the determination of what to with Henrik Lundqvist. When I wrote the above on free agency, I also included this on Lundqvist. “With three years left at $8.5 mil per, Lundqvist will, unless something highly unexpected occurs, be playing in front of team that won’t come close to contending this season. If the rebuild isn’t to start until 2020-21, then next year is kind of waste for him as well. The season might be one of mild growth for the organization, but knowing how competitive Hank is, he honestly would be wasted, since his efforts will go for naught. His most important contribution might be in helping Shestyorkin adapt to North American play, presuming the prospect comes over from the KHL. In 2021-22, a quasi time share might exist, unless Hank is on his game at his somewhat advanced age and he provides New York the best chance to win in a year they look to turn the corner.
You all know my view on Lundqvist. He will be a Hall of Famer and his number will be in the rafters at MSG. But if the rebuild is expected to take several seasons and next year’s free agency doesn’t go accordingly to plan, or pursuing one to two big names isn’t the path forward, then the organization will have to think long and hard how they handle Lundqvist and the goaltending position.…
Lots can happen between now and next season. Hopefully, the young players take that next step and the rookies show they are a big part of the future. If that happens, attracting elite players won't prove to be difficult. By the turn of the calendar to 2019, we should have a decent sense as to how accelerated the rebuild will be, as to whether it’s short term or years down the road. New York’s influx of talent has had a marked impact on the pipeline and its minor league rating. Corey Pronman in his current organization rankings moved the Rangers up from 29th last season to 11th, which is a huge jump in one year. If, as I noted above, that talent coalesces quickly, then the upcoming free agency should be a fun one once again on Broadway and we can once again start to have visions of a parade down the Canyon of Heroes.