Last night 2-2 +.85 Units YTD 124-86-2 +51.21 Units(season high)
What a bizarre night with my Flyers pick last night as I could've never imagined that a team so rested at home would come out so flat! The Flyers were against a TB team that had played 2 of the last 3 nights while Philly hadn't played a game since Wednesday night and had lost 7 in a row, well make that 8 in a row now. I always say don't bet on teams that are mired in long losing streaks but I thought this was a great spot for them. I truly think a coaching change is coming in Philly. Then our other loss of the night was with another struggling team in the NY Islanders who I truly can't figure out. The Isles have lost 11 straight, but have gained a point in each of the last 3 games since their covid postponement. They didn't play desperate hockey until the last 5 minutes of the game, then they scored with 2 seconds to go giving us false hope, but they lost in a shootout. I wish I had stuck with my system and played the Jackets, but I passed on the game due to their 4 game roadie. It didn't matter as SJ didn't have enough left in the tank playing their 5th straight road game in 8 nights. At least we had a slightly profitable night, with nice wins by the Jets and Knights. Onwards to a new week as they say. We have a 6 game card tonight but I'm not super big on it, the game analysis is below for tonight's games.
**Peterson/Demko confirmed goalies** I am starting with the late game, which I don't normally do but it's because Vancouver has fired their GM and HC. It was long overdue as you could tell this team had quit on their HC plus at times, you could read between the lines when listening to players' comments about their PP and PK, what it lacked, etc. LA played last night in Edmonton but the McDavid 5 minute major sealed the game for the Kings as they scored 3 times on that PP to win 5-1. I always play the new coach angle in their first game out, as it usually energizes and recharges the team. Over the years it has hit at over a 75% clip, so it's a very profitable angle. The Hawks won in their first under HC King when they fired their coach. Strong lean to Vancouver -135 but grab it now before the price climbs throughout the day! Under might be the way to go as well, as teams usually tighten up defensively as well, in the first game with a new HC. Both teams have combined to go under the total 29 out of 45 games this season.
**Annunen/Jones confirmed goalies**Avs starting AHL goalie tonight, 3rd string!** **Vigneault and Therien fired, Yeo named interim HC** **Philly opened +130, now at +174** The Avs are really banged up, Kadri/Makar/Kuemper/Byram/Murray, too many key injuries and it's Colorado's 4th game in 6 nights on the road. There's zero value at -165 for them. In fact, over the total looks good here as the Avs played their back-up and 3rd string goalie in Ottawa the other night, both teams play no defense so if anything I would play the over. As for Philly, they are a trainwreck, stay away from them until they fire Alain Vigneault. The Flyers have lost 8 in a row and they weren't even in most of the games, 7-1, 4-1, 5-2, 6-3, 4-0, 5-2, you get the idea!
**Gibson/Samsonov confirmed goalies** The Ducks start a 5 game east coast roadie and they've been very average on the road. Anaheim beat Washington on home ice a few weeks ago, so I could see the Caps wanting this a little more as they are off until Friday night. The Ducks are without Getzlaf and Henrique, their 2 most experienced centers, which will hurt them. It's still a steep price for Washington at -215, so unless if you are brave with the PL, I am passing on this one too.
**Forsberg/Blackwood confirmed goalies** The Devils have lost 5 of their last 6 games, their only win over the struggling Flyers. But they're a very good home team against a terrible road team in Ottawa. The Sens are off 2 massive wins over Carolina and Colorado so a letdown is very possible here, plus it's their 4th game in 6 nights, alternating road game/home game. That's a lot of travel to go with the 4 in 6. Strong lean to the Devils, but the price is steep here like the Caps game, NJ -185 is far too high for a struggling team, pass for me on the side. But I do like the under here, as both teams generally struggle to score goals.
**Wedgewood/Holtby confirmed goalies** The Coyotes are dreadful on the road too, much like Ottawa and they are down 2 of their centers and for a team that has no depth, this will really hurt them. AZ doesn't play again until Friday, but after winning 3 of 4 games, they are back to their losing ways, dropping 5 of their last 6 games. Dallas has won 6 in a row and 8 of their last 9 games but they head out on the road to Vegas/LA and SJ, so I would be careful of the Stars looking ahead here at -293 on the ML. If you are feeling lucky, the PL would be the way to go, but it's a pass for me.
**DeSmith/Grubauer confirmed goalies** The Pens are playing their 4th straight road game out west and Pittsburgh has been very solid on the road this season. Seattle has played their best hockey at home and has knocked off Washington, Carolina, Minnesota, and Edmonton who are some of the best teams in the league. The Kraken play the big name & top teams like it's their Stanley Cup, which is why they're +110 dogs at home! The Pens are -130 so that tells you Vegas is begging for Pitt money, as the public loves the big name/player teams, especially against an expansion team. Strong lean to Seattle at home.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The following numbers from last night were requested by all the Draft Kings reader's here, so I hope all of you that read the column daily can use them to your advantage - Total goals last night - 43 (Home - 19/Road - 24) Total PP goals last night - 12 Total SH goals last night - 2 Favs were 3-3 last night. The last nine days favs have gone 55-26! **Another prop to try is empty-net goals, you would be surprised how many are scored each night as coaches tend to pull the goalie earlier than if down 1 or 2 goals.
Home teams are now 213-166. Over/Under the total is 186-182-7 on the year. Teams in back-to-back consecutive road games are now 33-24-1 over/under the total. Teams rested the night before when their opponent plays the prior night are 32-26. East vs West games, West 82-76 over the Eastern Conference. Teams playing 3 in 4 nights on the road, bet against in 3rd game - 18-10 Teams playing 4 in 6 nights on the road, bet against in 4th game - 18-4 Teams off 5 game roadie or more, bet against them. 10-5 Teams playing 5 in 8 nights on the road, bet against them in 5th game - 8-3 Teams playing in their 6th straight road game, bet against them. 1-4
Playing tonight- Back later with more confirmed plays, be sure to check back throughout the day!
Canucks - ML(-135)(3 Units) Flyers - ML(+174)(2 Units) Seattle - ML(+110)(1 Unit)
If anyone has a system that they would like to share in the comment section, please do! We're all trying to help each win $, anything that can help the group here would be great. If anyone has any questions or comments, either drop me an IM or leave a comment in the discussion section of the blog. I always get back to everyone!
Good Luck Tonight! Puckpix