Thank you to everyone who took the time to make submissions to this record-setting mailbag. My answers to your questions on the Ottawa Senators and National Hockey League are below: Bartacus1 asks: Heya Michael! What ever possessed the Sens to give Colin White that ridiculous deal? Looking at his numbers and underlying metrics from last year, he kinda stunk, and he was playing with Stone for a big chunk of that; PD handing out those deals now likely signals buyer beware for Eugene. I get you'll probably say 'it's too early and he's young', but do you think his play this year might affect Eugene's willingness to let PD negotiate long term contracts in the coming offseason? In retrospect, that Mark Stone 3.5*3 deal was super dumb - he had all the underlying metrics going for him, we could've had him for $5M*8 years, but I think Eugene forced PD lower because of Bobby Ryan and I'm worried of that happening again.
They saw a player who put up 40-plus points in his first full season with the team, and decided that they wanted to get him locked up to avoid a Stone-like situation. From a business perspective, I also think there was likely a desire on the part of management and ownership to signal to fans that they are willing to spend money.
Brady's contract is obviously the big one that's coming. I don't see how the organization could rationalize using White's performance as a reason to shy away from committing to Tkachuk.
John asks: With all the young talent already playing on the Sens, the young talent on its way, and the young talent about to be drafted, are there any players the Sens are holding onto or trying to develop that you believe should be better used as trade chips? Or maybe players that don’t have value?
Not really. The team is still so early in its rebuilding efforts, and there is no guarantee that every chip at the table will turn into a bona fide National Hockey League player. The Sens are better off holding onto as many young players as possible right now.
Peter asks: Should the Sens look at Hendrix Lapierre with their third first round pick? High risk, high reward.
The concussions scare me, but I’ll leave it to the scouts to figure out whether there is long-term reason to be concerned. With respect to that third first-round pick, the Senators will likely be in a position to make a strategic choice. Pick the absolute best players available with the Ottawa and San Jose picks, and then round out the crop with the New York pick. If the team ends up with two forwards up top, choosing a third one might not make the most sense if there isn't a huge talent gap between options at that point.
Danial asks: Now that the trade deadline is behind us, who do you think the Sens need to move during the summer to make room for upcoming prospects? Do the Sens need to pick up any veterans during the offseason? What does the projected lineup for Ottawa look like for next season?
A player like Ron Hainsey probably needs to go to make room for some of the defensive prospects in the system, especially given the extra year on Mike Reilly’s contract that makes him a virtual lock for a spot. Up front, players like Scott Sabourin, Matthew Peca, and Mikkel Boedker probably don’t have spots next season.
With respect to the veteran presence question, I don’t think there’s any immediate need. Bobby Ryan will be back. There’s been talk that Mark Borowiecki will be extended. Thomas Chabot and Brady Tkachuk bring leadership qualities to the table, even at their relatively young age. Allocating another spot for a veteran simply because he’s a veteran seems counterintuitive given the number of young players making their way up through the system.
I’m not going to speculate on lineups until the draft is over.
Pageau Away, Leave Me Alone asks: What’s your prediction for Pageau’s production with NYI for the rest of the season, and all of next? I expect that we’ll see a return to the 30-40-point range for J-G Pageau in New York, as a lot of his offensive production this year in Ottawa came on account of him being *the* offensive option for D.J. Smith. He won’t have those same opportunities in New York, and I would expect his production to regress as a result. Eugene’s Wallet asks: With so few contracts on the books next season, do you see any of the pending RFAs getting traded in the offseason? Who gets re-signed, and what are your AAV predictions?
I don’t foresee any trades of pending RFAs. I’ll throw darts on the board for AAVs:
Anthony Duclair: $4.5M Connor Brown: $4.5M Chris Tierney: $4M Jayce Hawyrluk: N/A – not re-signed or traded Rudolfs Balcers: $1M Nick Paul: $1.5M Andreas Englud: $800K
Bogey asks: Sens could desperately use a stay at home, stalwart RHD to support Chabot – it’s clear that’s not (at least currently developmentally) in the system. As much as I’d love Pietrangelo, there’s zero chance he wants to be a Senator and zero chance that ownership would green light it. Who would you look to sign or trade for as Chabot’s partner? Maybe give a dream candidate and a realistic option.
Dylan DeMelo is the answer to both questions. ….we’re a team asks: Who do you want to see Pierre Dorion go for in the draft on the high end? Any middle round prospects you know of worth scoping?
Obviously I hope to see Alexis Lafreniere in Senators red on draft day, but there’s so much high-end talent available in this year’s draft. Time Stutzle is a name I have liked for a long time, and Marco Rossi continues to get solid scouting reports from HockeyBuzz’s own Todd Cordell. Really, among the top-ranked prospects on the board, Yaroslav Askarov is the only one truly on my “do not select… list.
I don’t watch enough junior hockey to give you an informed opinion on mid-round prospects.
SportsGuy67 asks: Now that the deadline is over and Ottawa is essentially looking toward the offseason with no much to play for standings-wise, what would a best and worst case scenario offseason look like for the Sens?
The best case scenario is selecting first and second overall in June’s draft. The worst case scenario is Pierre Dorion looking to shortcut the building by making “win now… trades.
Maxgd asks: Which of the following centers should the Sens draft? Byfield, Perfetti, or Rossi.
Byfield is the consensus #2 pick for a reason.
Beef asks: What is known about Melnyk’s financial situation these days? Is he motivated to sell?
I don’t have any information aside from that already in the public domain. Jesse asks: Do you see us trading any of our picks in this draft for players in the NHL now? I sure hope not. This would be worst-case scenario for the Sens.
Emir asks: With so many draft picks in the upcoming draft, what do you think is the best thing to do? Package up picks for another first rounder? Package up picks/prospects to bring in a high-caliber player? I just feel like we have **too many** picks (if there is such a thing).
The best thing to do is to make all the picks. There’s no such thing as too many. Picks are like lottery tickets, and not every one is going to be a winner. The marginal benefit acquired by teams that move up is generally close to nil, or even negative in terms of expected pick value. Stay the course. There can’t be shortcuts in this rebuild. Bob asks: I have been following our Belleville Senators fairly closely this year through a collection of sources. How do you follow the team? Are there reliable ways to watch the games online? Do you know of any good sites to follow the team? I would love to start creating a connection with the young guys coming up through the system. Silver Seven does a fantastic job of highlighting what is going on with the team’s prospects, and they have quickly become my go-to source for Belleville info beyond the stat sheet.
I imagine that AHL TV is the best source to watch games. Maggie asks: During the trade deadline, teams making trades must meet the maximum salary cap and not go past it, but does the floor still exist for teams making trades?
Yes, but cap hits are pro-rated based on days.
SaltyOne asks: With a huge haul of picks coming this draft, how much of the Belleville squad comes up next year? It seems like management has really settled down to support the B’s and ensure they have a great season and development. Also, what’s the hole on the roster that needs to be addressed through UFA (or trade) that the kids can’t fill? My expectation is that Josh Norris, Vitaly Abramov, Drake Batherson, Logan Brown, and Erik Brannstrom will all get *very* long looks to start next year.
There’s no real gap in the system that can’t be filled by kids right now, assuming June’s draft goes well at the top end. That means there's no immediate need to spend money on the UFA market, in my opinion.
Frosty Cold asks: Would you take a couple of the second round and beyond picks and trade them for first rounders? If not, who would you take a chance on in the second round of the 2020 draft? No, I wouldn’t. Teams at the top of the first round won’t take multiple seconds to trade down, so the best-case scenario is a mid-to-late first. The value difference between at mid-to-late first and a second round pick isn’t huge, which makes packaging multiple seconds in a trade like that a bad idea.
I haven’t seen enough Junior hockey to be able to comment on the second part of your question with any degree of authority. I will say: Always take risks on elite talent. Don’t be scared of supremely talented players just because they are small. Tampa Bay made out okay in the mid rounds with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. Athrin asks: With the difference in talent being so minuscule between pick three and about the eighth or ninth spot, should OTT add to their stacked D prospects by drafting Drysdale with one of their top-10 picks, or should they draft to strengthen their weakness at RW?
I’d stay away from drafting for position with the Ottawa and San Jose picks. Take the players judged to be the best available. If Drysdale is top on their list when their pick comes up – and there’s plenty of reasons to like him – then he’s the guy to take. Athrin asks: If Colin White does not improve in terms of play, should OTT expose him to Seattle in the expansion draft?
This is a really interesting question. Much of the coverage around the team last season suggested that White was a lock to be protected by the Senators in the Seattle expansion draft, but that was prior to his underwhelming 2019-20 campaign. With other players with higher upside likely to be in need of protecting, exposing White could be an option for the Senators.
With that being said, the expansion draft rules are designed in such a way that many of the *most* valuable players in the system won’t need protecting. That could leave space open to protect White even if he doesn’t stand out as one of the organization’s most valuable pieces. It's not just a question of White's standalone value to this team, but rather this value relative to others in the system. If you aren't going to protect White, who are you going to protect in his place? Seeing what transpires to start next season will make the answer to that question clearer. Trilla asks: Which UFAs should the Sens target in the offseason?
I don’t see a big need to go hunting on the UFA market. Re-signing some of the key RFAs like Duclair and Brown, combined with an influx of prospects, should provide for enough of a lift at this stage of the rebuild.
Cory asks: Is there an option to maybe package some picks for a trade with the Oilers for a young prospect playing in Finland?
This is the kind of player that the Senators should be targeting, if they are going to explore the trade market at all. This is a young player who needs a change of scenery, but still has tons of runway left in front of him. The Oilers are low on picks in this year’s draft after making their moves at the deadline, so I would think that there’s certainly an opportunity for Ottawa to explore here. Trilla asks: With Seattle slowly approaching, teams will most likely make decisions on their roster in advance to not have a repeat of Vegas. Which team(s) do you think will be most active on draft day and the offseason?
Your faith in NHL teams’ ability to learn from mistakes is admirable. I expect Florida to be incredibly busy this offseason if they miss the playoffs. Something has to change there. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Arizona get active in the market if they miss the playoffs as well, especially after going all in with the Hall acquisition.
Trilla asks: With plenty of teams being up against the cap for next season, and Seattle looming… which teams do you see being trade partners with the Sens? Tampa and Vancouver stick out immediately. Both are going to need to make some cap-related moves over the summer to be ready for next season.
Athrin asks: What U25 RFA should OTT target from a cap-strapped team and what do you think the acquisition price would be?
I expect that Tampa will make re-signing both work, but Anthony Cirelli and Mikhail Sergachev are two pending RFAs that would look great with the Senators. The acquisition price would be absurdly high.
Trilla asks: Which team, currently in a playoff position, do you see missing the playoffs? Which team, currently outside a playoff position, do you see making the playoffs?
Vancouver’s injury situation suggests to me that they are likely to miss. Something tells me the Predators make it in their place.
Athrin asks: So far this season, which Sens prospect has been a pleasant surprise and which has been a big disappointment?
Josh Norris’ season in Belleville is one for the ages; I’m not sure that anybody saw it coming. On the other end of the spectrum, Filip Chlapik’s last run as a true “prospect… has underwhelmed me. I haven’t seen the step forward in his development curve this year.
Steve asks: I like hypotheticals, so here's one for you. Ottawa finishes the year with the 3rd (OTT), 7th (SJ), and 19th (NYI) picks (among all of their later round picks). I doubt whoever lands #1 would trade away Lafreniere, but is the drop in talent between Byfield and a Drysdale/Perfetti/Rossi worth moving up? If so, what do you think it would take to go from #3 to #2? Enjoy!
I don’t think that the cost to move up is worth the potential benefit. Byfield projects to be a great player, but NHL teams value those top-end picks like nothing else. It would likely take Ottawa’s higher first, plus the New York first. And even that might not get it done. That’s not worth it.
Mike (nice try) asks: Do you think Logan Brown is a bust? I feel like his ceiling is a 3rd line center at best.
It’s way too early to make a determination like that, but there’s nothing wrong with him turning into a third-line center. Not every player selected is going to be a surefire first line producer. If Brown can develop into a guy who gives the Senators solid third line minutes, that would be a win.
Steffie asks: Considering that the Sens refrained from trading Craig Anderson at the deadline, what do you think of signing him to a one-year extension?
I don’t think it would make a ton of sense to do that. One of the benefits of Anders Nilsson’s injury this year is that it’s helped to showcase some of the other goaltending talent in the system. Marcus Hogberg looks like an NHL goaltender, and he wasn’t even necessarily thought of as the organization’s best goaltending prospect heading into the season. It probably makes more sense to politely say goodbye to Anderson, while working some of that goaltending depth up through the ranks. Nick asks: What changes would you make if you were managing the team rather than Dorion (i.e. what are you getting done over the summer)?
Quite honestly? Not much. If things go as planned with the draft, this doesn’t need to be a particularly active summer for Ottawa. Let prospects develop over the next year or two, and then be ready to spend money in the summer of 2022 or 2023.
Terry asks: With expansion coming next year, who on the current Ottawa team would be exempt if kept on the roster?
CapFriendly lists the players that would currently be exempt (subject to change) as Josh Norris, Jonathan Gruden, Alex Formenton, Kelly Parker, Lassi Thomson, Erik Brannstrom, and Olle Alsing.
Mario asks: Should Ottawa win the Lafreniere sweepstakes, should they consider trading him for a package of assets (e.g. Montreal’s first rounder plus a top-three prospect)?
I think that’s a really tough sell for a team that is desperate for some good news. Given the state of the franchise, it would be foolish to pass up on the marketing opportunities, business development opportunities, and fan engagement that come with drafting first overall. Then there's the on-ice impact that comes with drafting the consensus best player available, which is obviously significant.
Scott asks: Since Ottawa is in tank mode, when will they recall Brannstrom?
Brannstrom is out for at least a month with a wrist injury. But, even if he were healthy, they likely wanted to keep him down in Belleville leading the charge towards the playoffs. He would be playing far more meaningful minutes there than he would be for the Big Senators. David22 asks: What will the Sens cap situation look like next year. Will they need to add players to reach the floor, and if so, who are some players to target?
CapFriendly projects the Senators having a cap hit of $42M for next season, which means they will certainly have to add salary before the puck drops on Day 1. Assuming Brown, Duclair, and Tierney are re-signed, that probably accounts for between $10M and $15M, depending on where the numbers fall. That wouldn’t leave them with an outrageous amount more to add to hit the projected cap floor. Re-signing Mark Borowiecki and Ron Hainsey as well, which has reportedly been discussed, could basically get them there. If those moves alone don’t get them across the basement line, it wouldn’t take much of a move on the free agent market to do so. Shawn asks: Do you think the Sens would select Askarov if he is available with the Islanders pick? Goalies are hit or miss and we have a bunch in the system already.
I hope not, for the exact reason you mention.
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As always, thanks for reading.