***Update: The Montreal Canadiens traded defence man Z Redmond to the Buffalo Sabres for forward Nicolas Deslauriers. Deslauriers will report to Laval. Depth move for the Rocket club as Deslaurier looks to be an effective AHL contributor.
The Canadiens made another move adding Kyle Baun from the Blackhawks in exchange for Andreas Martinsen. Seems like Bergevin is tweaking the AHL on the eve of the Habs season opener.***
The #Blackhawks have acquired forward Andreas Martinsen from Montreal in exchange for forward Kyle Baun. Martinsen will report to Rockford.
— Chicago Blackhawks (@NHLBlackhawks) October 4, 2017
The Canadiens acquire Nicolas Deslauriers from BUF, in return for Zach Redmond. Deslauriers will report to the Laval Rocket.
— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) October 4, 2017
What Can We Expect From Victor Mete This Season?
It is a foregone conclusion that 19 year old, Toronto native Victor Mete will be in the Canadiens starting line up on Thursday night when the Habs open their season in Buffalo against the Sabres.
âœŒï¸ jours!
— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) October 3, 2017
âœŒï¸ days! #GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/nThtWedA4R
Mete has been a revelation in the Canadiens camp and has earned some well deserved media coverage as a result. While many had already pegged this years Calder Candidates as Hishcier, Patrick, McAvoy, Keller and Eriksson Ek it would be important to note that outside of Hischier's performance this preseason, Mete has been as good (or better) than the other five I listed.
So, what could we reasonably expect from the 19 year old this season?
I would like to take a swing at projecting his performance, but with a qualifier. I will start with the presumption he will play with Weber most of the season. While that may not happen, there’s no way to also say it won’t occur. I will try to use some previous stats from another Toronto born, former Hab who had speed, skill, and drive. A player that found himself in a top 4 role immediately in his rookie campaign, PK Subban.
First, a look at Victor Mete’s stats.
Mete’s second season in London yielded a roughly 60% increase in points year over year (23 to 38) and a Memorial Cup Championship. The following season (last season) saw Mete only gain 6 more points on his previous total, 44 to 38, but it was accomplished in 18 less games, 68 games to 50. To better quantify the difference year over year we will use his Points Per Game (PPG). In 15-16 Mete’s PPG was 0.56. In 16-17 his PPG jumped to 0.88. A increase of roughly 64%. This included scoring 15 goals last year as opposed to 8 the previous year. If Mete had played the same 68 games as the previous season he was on pace for roughly 60 points, and 20 goals.
An incredible jump, to say the least, on a team that lost Marner, Tkachuk, and Dvorak to their respective NHL clubs.
My comparison data is provided by PK Subban and I want to take a look at his third year in Belleville and his first full rookie campaign in Montreal. Now, I’m not saying Mete will be Subban 2.0 (not that I don’t want that, just unfair to speculate like that), but I just want to use some Habs history to see if I can draw some parallels.
Here we see that in Subban’s third season in Belleville he put up 8 goals and 46 points in 58 games. Good for a PPG of 0.79. Important to note that Subban and Mete were the same age in their 3rd OHL seasons as well. Subban went on to play an extra full season of junior hockey where he was simply dominant putting up 14 goals and 76 points in 56 games for a PPG of 1.36. Nearly double the previous years total. Incredible. Subban followed up that OHL campaign by graduating to the AHL and he kept up the scoring in a big way by producing 53 points in 77 games with Hamilton before being called up by the Canadiens for the playoffs and he never looked back. His NHL career began at 20 years of age.
In this I would argue that Mete and Subban are very similarly producing offensive defensemen, at this point in Mete’s career from a statistical review. Every player is different and there is no sure fire way to ascertain a prospects NHL potential with absolute certainty unless they provide performances like McDavid, Crosby, Eichel, and Matthews. Maybe one player per draft class can be accurately projected at the NHL level so I’m aware that my comparison may draw criticism, but just hear me out.
Mete’s first NHL season will start when he is 19 years of age as opposed to Subban’s 20 and it may not last longer than 9 games. But, I think if you watched the kid play and followed the Canadiens practice lines all camp you will see that Mete is likely to see a fair share of time with Weber with the occasional sheltering with Benn. He is also likely to see some 2nd unit Power Play time, if he holds his own with the club.
Now, lets have a look at a few of Subban’s rookie stats. In 2010-2011 Subban played in 77 games and produced 14 goals and 24 assists along with a -8. Subban’s defensive issues are well documented at this point and despite him providing offence for the Habs he could also provide it for the other team. Despite that, Subban saw an average TOI of 22:16 (wow) and had stellar CorsiF% of 54.0. The CF% flies in the face of what I just said about Subban’s defensive issues, but tell me I’m wrong? We all saw it, it was talked about endlessly in the media and yet there is a shimmering CF%. Perhaps the Corsi stat is relevant when looking at offence, but is only one tool of many on the player evaluation workbench. One should not look at fancy stats alone to justify opinion, but I digress.
With Subban enjoying a great rookie campaign at 20 years old playing top 4 minutes, what can we expect from a full season in Victor Mete? Likely not the same offensive numbers as Subban became the oft used PP weapon. This years version of the Canadiens has that. In fact, they have two in Shea Weber and Jonathan Drouin. Both among the NHL’s elite with the man advantage. Mete will not see the the same bump in points from the PP that Subban had (9 G, 9 A = 18 PPP) but he could match Subban’s even strength production of 5 G and 15 A. Playing top 4 minutes mostly with Weber may all but assure that considering the skill Mete has flashed this September and last season in London. To play my own Devil’s Advocate I could also say Mete produces less due to his age and physical maturity not being the same as Subban.
I’ll play prognosticator though and estimate that should Victor Mete cement his place in Montreal for the entire season, and play the lions share of his time in the top 4, I could see him producing 5 goals (4 EV, 1PP) and 15 assists (12 EV, 3 PP) for 20 points over 82 games. A 19 year old rookie doing that would be incredible, anything more is gravy. If Mete exceeds even my own expectations ( and if you’ve been reading my work you know I’m a HUGE fan of Mete) then when its time I’ll pen an open letter to Marc Bergevin and Geoff Molson to not “PK… his next contract by getting cheap. Give a more “Slavin… like deal instead of signing a terrible contract later. But I’m getting way too far ahead of myself. Let’s just see what the kid can do.
I’ll leave you with todays practice lines provided by the Montreal Canadiens official website.
David Schlemko was placed on IR bringing the Canadiens camp down to 23 players. Victor Mete led the stretch at practice while being cheered by his teammates so it's safe to say the line up today is the final team.
Pacioretty - Drouin - Gallagher Hudon - Plekanec - Lehkonen Galchenyuk - Danault - Shaw Byron - De La Rose/Mitchell - Hemsky
Mete - Weber Alzner - Petry Benn - Streit Morrow - Davidson
Price Montoya
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