March for the Cup is where you will vote on hypothetical playoff matchups in a bracket style setup mimicking the NCAA basketball tournaments. Here is the setup.
I’m going to seed all 31 teams based on the current overall standings with one play in game because of the odd number of teams. You will have a chance to vote on who you think should win the matchup. I’ll give some brief overviews and you’ll use those and your own intuition to make your selections. The results will be hidden until the next blog when the results are revealed. We will go round by round until we have a winner. Who knows? Maybe our selection will be the only winner this season.
This is all hypothetical. However you want to analyze things, go for it. If you want to assume every team has full health, go for it. Anything goes in the Coronavirus era of hypothetical playoff hockey.
The Bruins are the #1 seed in the entire tournament and they have a bye for this round. Here is a look at the bracket
(16) New York Rangers vs (17) Calgary Flames The Rangers being a 16 seed is not something I would have predicted before the year. Artemi Panarin has been amazing and Henrik Lundqvist hasn’t really been a part of the success this year. Mika Zibinejad has like 100 goals (41 in 57 games) this year and is a true star. Chris Kreider is healthy again as far as this exercise is concerned to the Rangers have some fire power against the Flames. Calgary is a middle of the road team in xGF%, save percentage, and in the lower third in shooting percentage. They’ve just kind of been there this year. Really close matchup here
(8) Vegas Golden Knights vs (25) Buffalo Sabres
Jack Eichel is finally in the playoffs! And even in the fake playoffs it will probably be short lived. The Vegas Golden Knights fired their coach midway through the season even though they were playing really good. They are still playing good except now they have goaltending insurance in the form of Robin Lehner. Marc-Andre Fleury was in the midst of a pretty bad year and was one of the few weaknesses the Golden Knights had this year. A fully healthy Golden Knights lineup is a handful for any team, let alone the Sabres.
(9) Edmonton Oilers vs (24) Montreal Canadiens
A battle of dynasties that predates mainstream internet and cell phone usage. The Oilers are fortunate to play in the worst division in hockey and the Canadiens have the opposite fate. These two teams are closer than their seedings would indicate. The Oilers are a so so team with absolutely amazing top end talent with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Their goaltending is blah indicated by their 5v5 save percentage of .912. Carey Price isn’t what he used to be so it isn’t like Montreal’s goaltending is much better. They sit at .917. The big difference is Montreal has great shot differentials at the moment. They are among the best in the league. I know, I’m surprised to see it, too. See it for yourself
This comes down to if you believe McDavid and Draisaitl can overcome mediocrity. They are certainly good enough to do so in a one game elimination.
(4) Tampa Bay Lightning vs (29) San Jose Sharks
This matchup would have been amazing a few years ago. The fact is the Sharks are a shell of their former selves. Even when they were healthy this year they underachieved. They would get Erik Karlsson and Tomas Hertl back, but does it really matter when you look across to the other bench and see what Tampa has. The goaltending matchup speaks for itself which makes things even more of an uphill battle for the Lightning.
(13) Columbus Blue Jackets vs (20) Vancouver Canucks The Canucks may not want to hear this, but John Tortorella has done quite a job this year with the Blue Jackets. The team was absolutely gutted. They lost what could be the Hart Trophy winner (if there is one), their franchise goalie (might not have been a bad thing), their prized rentals in Duchene/Dzingel, and didn’t replace it with much. Blue Jackets are currently in the second wild card position and it isn’t a fluke because they are ninth best in xGF% at 51.92. They are fifth in 5v5 save percentage at .928 and for no reason at all I will point out Florida is 29th at .911 (911 indeed).
The good news for Vancouver is they get Brock Boeser back for this fictional playoff run. They also added Tyler Toffoli. They have some good forwards on this team with Elias Pettersson being awesome and JT Miller having a wonderful year. They still have their flaws, but this is the best version of the Canucks in some time.
(5) Washington Capitals vs (28) Los Angeles Kings
The Capitals remain a powerhouse in a powerhouse division. They weren’t content with the status quo and added Ilya Kovalchuk and Brenden Dillon. Now Kovalchuk won’t be a boost on the power play, one of the few teams he wouldn’t, because the best guy of all-time already owns the left circle. He will provide some depth offense. If the team moves away from Braden Holtby and his .897 save percentage it would be a benefit to them.
Los Angeles is in selling mode. They moved Tyler Toffoli, Kyle Clifford, and Alec Martinez. They have one of the best prospect pools in the league. It just won’t help them in this matchup.
(12) Toronto Maple Leafs vs (21) Minnesota Wild
Every team being at full health for this fake tournament probably helps the Maple Leafs more than any other team. They’ve dealt with a number of significant injuries and now they’ll have Morgain Reilly (played one game before virus cancellation), Jake Muzzin, Andreas Johnsson, and Ilya Mikheyev back in the lineup. That will really help with their depth and complement the top end talent. Frederik Andersen still needs to play better, but it is a likelier proposition with a full team in front of him.
Minnesota is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Teams being at full health does not mean the players get the use of a time machine so Zach Parise, Ryan Suter, Mikko Koivu, Mats Zuccarello, and Eric Staal don’t see that kind of bump. These players are still fine, but when it is your core and you are up against what Toronto has it seems like an uphill battle.
Thanks for reading!